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Suburban Ride-Sharing Is Mathematically Unlikely

citylab.com

21–30 of 70 posts

Re: Suburban Ride-Sharing Is Mathematically Unlikely

#21

This 'paper' relies on some very flawed assumptions and hence have no basis in reality. Ridesharing services like Uber aim to be cheaper than car ownership, while being as reliable as running water. Many people are finding that once they add up all their vehicle costs (maintenance, depreciation, parking, registration, fuel), uberPOOL or even uberX is cheaper than owning a car. Plus, you get to work or relax on the ri…

I think the author is using "ride sharing" more in the sense of car pooling for commuting rather than as a substitute for taxi cab and similar services where the rider hires the driver.

Re: Suburban Ride-Sharing Is Mathematically Unlikely

#22
post #8

Here's a super depressing mathematical proof of why the services fail in the burbs: First the assumption is a car is necessary for living in general. I am very happy for the 0.1% of the population who live in an urban hugbox where they don't need a car, but this is a general argument for 99% of the population or a unicorn sized middleman app. My garage costs perhaps $50K lifetime, including land, maint, all added tog…

0.1% really? I live in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. 25% of households here have no car, and we don't have the world's best transit system. Per http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2014/01/21/vital-signs-more-h... it's over 9% of households that don't have a car- and of course the average size of a household is above 1, so your fake statistic is two orders of magnitude off from reality. You're welcome to be hyperbolic, but esp…

And, don't call your proofs "mathematical" if you're happy citing numbers with no citation two orders of magnitude off from reality.

Re: Suburban Ride-Sharing Is Mathematically Unlikely

#23

It seems that the conclusion is drawn from specific premises: + The measure of a ride sharing app's value is cash on cash returns to Silcon Valley style investors. + A ride sharing app's primary market will be in the US. + The suburbs served will be affluent, and hence the ride sharing app's user base will tend to have economic flexibility in regards to transportation. + The served markets will have poor public trans…

The numbers in this article are misleading as they're drawn from ridiculously underestimated assumptions. 25 - 33% is a more accurate number.

Pooled ridesharing is cheaper and better than owning a car in many cases (including mine), and the benefits will only increase with the network effect. (Imagine if 50% of the cars on the road are Ubers, and the average ETA to pickup is 30 seconds).

The positive externalities are more than just parking:

+ Less traffic congestion, shorter commutes for everyone

+ Less pollution and emissions, less lung cancer

+ More experienced drivers, less traffic accidents

+ And of course, less parking space.

Re: Suburban Ride-Sharing Is Mathematically Unlikely

#24
post #13
post #3

This is probably about as accurate as the Drake equation. At the company I work at in the UK, probably 80% of people lift-share. Admittedly that is unusual but still. The article makes several mistakes anyway: * "8 out of 31000" is one source to one destination - so it is very misleading * They don't realise that people might be willing to work different hours in order to find a lift share * 10 percent seems unoptimi…

I was wondering why he would pick Redwood and Palo Alto as an example. To me that doesn't seem like a typical commute in the US. The distance is only 12.5km, you could almost travel by bike. Anyway I think VLM's first comment is a much more intuitive explanation why ride-sharing is not attractive.

In fact, from where I live in Redwood City, it's more like 4 miles by bicycle.

It's not really a typical commute, but I think the point is more than fair -- if the author picked 2 far-flung locations, the probability of a match is typically going to be even lower.

That said, yes, there are common commute routes -- for example, more distance suburbs, which will have a number of commuters going to the same urban core(s).

But statistically speaking, the longer the journey, the less likely the commute match, given a general tendency to live closer to work rather than, say, 5 states away. Even in the US!

Re: Suburban Ride-Sharing Is Mathematically Unlikely

#25
post #8

Here's a super depressing mathematical proof of why the services fail in the burbs: First the assumption is a car is necessary for living in general. I am very happy for the 0.1% of the population who live in an urban hugbox where they don't need a car, but this is a general argument for 99% of the population or a unicorn sized middleman app. My garage costs perhaps $50K lifetime, including land, maint, all added tog…

0.1% really? I live in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. 25% of households here have no car, and we don't have the world's best transit system. Per http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2014/01/21/vital-signs-more-h... it's over 9% of households that don't have a car- and of course the average size of a household is above 1, so your fake statistic is two orders of magnitude off from reality. You're welcome to be hyperbolic, but esp…

Huh. I was very surprised to learn that there are 809 road vehicles per 1000 people in the US. I expected it to be in excess of 1000. Of course, this includes all kinds of commercial vehicles but also includes those who are not of driving age.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_vehicles_...

Re: Suburban Ride-Sharing Is Mathematically Unlikely

#26

This 'paper' relies on some very flawed assumptions and hence have no basis in reality. Ridesharing services like Uber aim to be cheaper than car ownership, while being as reliable as running water. Many people are finding that once they add up all their vehicle costs (maintenance, depreciation, parking, registration, fuel), uberPOOL or even uberX is cheaper than owning a car. Plus, you get to work or relax on the ri…

I think the author is using "ride sharing" more in the sense of car pooling for commuting rather than as a substitute for taxi cab and similar services where the rider hires the driver.

'Ridesharing apps' is a commute option.

I use Uber + public transport for commuting and getting around everywhere. I don't have a car, and I know many people in the same boat.

Re: Suburban Ride-Sharing Is Mathematically Unlikely

#27
post #2

Where I live, commuter trains are packed, though (Europe). How can that be? The same logic should apply to commuter trains as to cars?

Commuter trains have dedicated tracks so they don't suffer from the same congestion issues as carpools and buses (if we ignore the benefit of commuter lanes on the roadways).

Commuter trains take advantage of their dedicated tracks to make many stops without impacting travel speed too hugely. (Imagine if your vanpool exited the freeway and slogged through surface streets for 10-20mins for each passenger it deposited).

Commuter trains travel routes that go to where people work, and people choose to live near the train routes as a lifestyle choice. You're not going to know where your carpool buddy might live before you choose a house.

Re: Suburban Ride-Sharing Is Mathematically Unlikely

#28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the author is using "ride sharing" more in the sense of car pooling for commuting rather than as a substitute for taxi cab and similar services where the rider hires the driver.

'Ridesharing apps' is a commute option. I use Uber + public transport for commuting and getting around everywhere. I don't have a car, and I know many people in the same boat.

The reason that I think the author is not using "ride sharing app" in your sense is that the author concludes that such apps will not pencil out to cash on cash returns attractive to Valley Venture Capital. If we assume that the author has at least half a clue, then the author could not reasonably be assumed to include Uber or Lyft type apps in their definition of "ride sharing app".

If the author is without a clue, then probably the article should be flagged.

Re: Suburban Ride-Sharing Is Mathematically Unlikely

#29
post #8

Here's a super depressing mathematical proof of why the services fail in the burbs: First the assumption is a car is necessary for living in general. I am very happy for the 0.1% of the population who live in an urban hugbox where they don't need a car, but this is a general argument for 99% of the population or a unicorn sized middleman app. My garage costs perhaps $50K lifetime, including land, maint, all added tog…

0.1% really? I live in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. 25% of households here have no car, and we don't have the world's best transit system. Per http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2014/01/21/vital-signs-more-h... it's over 9% of households that don't have a car- and of course the average size of a household is above 1, so your fake statistic is two orders of magnitude off from reality. You're welcome to be hyperbolic, but esp…

Isn't this article about suburban ride-sharing? Car ownership in the suburbs is 100%.

I don't think anyone disputes that a lot of people live in cities and don't own cars.

Re: Suburban Ride-Sharing Is Mathematically Unlikely

#30
post #7
post #2

Where I live, commuter trains are packed, though (Europe). How can that be? The same logic should apply to commuter trains as to cars?

It's because Europe doesn't do suburbs and parking lots the same way that America does. Densified development around transit services will result in more people taking those services. Less and/or more costly parking in the city centre will result in fewer people driving. This is how Europe does things. Basically, the mix of vehicles (cars, trains, driverless cars, whatever) is far less deterministic than the urban de…

>This is how Europe does things.

This is also how America did things up until about the 1950s. From about that time period onward we didn't just build suburbs, we made them mandatory legally.

For instance, in your typical American suburb, you can't legally build a modern equivalent of a rowhouse; it might be too small to fit in the minimum lot size, its floor area ratio might exceed the ludicrously small allowed ratio, and it wouldn't have required side yards. Multistory apartments are mostly banned or, if they aren't, are required to sit on large lots so as to minimize their density. Then we tack on single-use zoning to ensure that nothing is within walking distance.

This would be bad, but manageable, if we could still build in our cities. Unfortunately our great cities have decided that their state at X point in time is the best humanity can achieve, so they have made it difficult to build new buildings. Our large cities in some cases have less housing than they used to due to urban freeways, misguided urban renewal, and the fires and riots of the tumultuous Civil Rights era.

>Basically, the mix of vehicles (cars, trains, driverless cars, whatever) is far less deterministic than the urban development patterns.

Yep. Many people fail to understand this; land use and transportation go hand in hand. Build sprawl, and you'll end up in traffic hell with no possible transit relief. Build dense development and, though congestion may be high, actual trip times can be shorter and alternative modes can flourish. It just so happens to also be vastly better for the environment.

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