Y Combinator's Altman: What I Worry About in Business [video] • Hacker News Board

Re: Y Combinator's Altman: What I Worry About in Business [video]

#21

Post by on_ » Tue, Oct 06, 2015, 2:12 AM UTC

seiji wrote: post #15

zem wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

nope. pet peeve - symbolism isn't irrational. "a billion dollars" is a powerful symbol, and may well pay off as much in psychological benefits as it loses in structural weirdness. or it may not, but it's definitely not clear-cut enough to dismiss as "dumb".

How is it not dumb? It's an arbitrary number of digits in base 10 numerals. Perhaps your point would be better addressed during your next regularly scheduled Bloomberg interview?

> How is it not dumb?

Because PLS Logistics Services does ~$100m a year more than dropbox (PLS rev is $515.6m) and has a growth rate of 42% and no one has ever heard of it. Dropbox was reportedly valued at $10 billion in November 2014, when it raised $350 million in its Series C[0]. You can plot the failure of the company on a graph inversely proportional to moores law, and yet they are "crushing it". So with less liquidity, they somehow have extracted maximum mileage out of being a 'Unicorn', being on the top of every 'unicorn list', and getting heaps of coverage in the media. They will IPO and exit which, after the lockup period ends, is a win.

So, to what extent is being a 'Unicorn' priced into the company? No one knows of course because we can't even see their financials. So other companies don't have to really engineer anything. Just get close to that num, and then wait 6 months. So, the point is, the media's obsession with ranking things is important and being in that top 10 list is helpful.

Donald Trump has become qualified to run America because he was on television, has > $1b, and is on a list.

[0]https://www.cbinsights.com/blog/dropbox-valuation-bubble/

Re: Y Combinator's Altman: What I Worry About in Business [video]

#22

Post by rokhayakebe » Tue, Oct 06, 2015, 2:33 AM UTC

vasilipupkin wrote: post #20

Great interview, but my advice for Sam would be to drop the use of "like". I think it makes him sound a little bit like a high school student :)

Sam's audience and customers will either like the "like," or not care.

Re: Y Combinator's Altman: What I Worry About in Business [video]

#23

Post by efoto » Tue, Oct 06, 2015, 2:35 AM UTC

vasilipupkin wrote: post #20

Great interview, but my advice for Sam would be to drop the use of "like". I think it makes him sound a little bit like a high school student :)

As far as I can tell his use of the word is totally appropriate and not even close to high schoolers "like". Trust me, I have one at home.

Re: Y Combinator's Altman: What I Worry About in Business [video]

#24

Post by vasilipupkin » Tue, Oct 06, 2015, 2:47 AM UTC

efoto wrote: post #23

vasilipupkin wrote: post #20

Great interview, but my advice for Sam would be to drop the use of "like". I think it makes him sound a little bit like a high school student :)

As far as I can tell his use of the word is totally appropriate and not even close to high schoolers "like". Trust me, I have one at home.

perhaps, but I counted like between 4 and 6 likes, that were, like, totally unnecessary :)

Re: Y Combinator's Altman: What I Worry About in Business [video]

#25

Post by gozo » Tue, Oct 06, 2015, 2:48 AM UTC

ThomPete wrote: post #5

on_ wrote: post #3

> http://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2015-09-24/y-contributo... Ahh yes, Dan Altman, a recent hire at SV clone "Y Contributor", talks about attention to detail, and working with the Samwer bros. Edit: << pun intended.

I am not actually sure why people have so much against the Samwer brothers. Have they done anything particularly despicable? I know their model is to copy any potential idea coming out of the US which I don't understand the issue with. One thing they really did well was to have a structure that makes it easy for them to localize any company. I hear the work environment is hard but so is it many other places. Or maybe…

I think they are implicitly challenging peoples ideas how startup works. Both for people who are "waiting for the right moment" to start a startup and people already running a startup and feel they have an advantage.

While I'm not a big personal fan of them I think competition is good. US startups need to step up their game and not coast until getting acquired.

Re: Y Combinator's Altman: What I Worry About in Business [video]

#26

Post by seiji » Tue, Oct 06, 2015, 3:12 AM UTC

on_ wrote: post #21

seiji wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How is it not dumb? It's an arbitrary number of digits in base 10 numerals. Perhaps your point would be better addressed during your next regularly scheduled Bloomberg interview?

> How is it not dumb? Because PLS Logistics Services does ~$100m a year more than dropbox (PLS rev is $515.6m) and has a growth rate of 42% and no one has ever heard of it. Dropbox was reportedly valued at $10 billion in November 2014, when it raised $350 million in its Series C[0]. You can plot the failure of the company on a graph inversely proportional to moores law, and yet they are "crushing it". So with less li…

I think you just agreed in a slightly angry way with plenty of citations.

Internet company valuations are also driven up by a small group of very rich people who all collude to drive up valuations anyway and promote their own rich people agendas anyway. It's not entirely based in the real world and doesn't come under real world scrutiny until it's too late.

Re: Y Combinator's Altman: What I Worry About in Business [video]

#27

Post by chiaro » Tue, Oct 06, 2015, 4:23 AM UTC

seiji wrote: post #26

on_ wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> How is it not dumb? Because PLS Logistics Services does ~$100m a year more than dropbox (PLS rev is $515.6m) and has a growth rate of 42% and no one has ever heard of it. Dropbox was reportedly valued at $10 billion in November 2014, when it raised $350 million in its Series C[0]. You can plot the failure of the company on a graph inversely proportional to moores law, and yet they are "crushing it". So with less li…

I think you just agreed in a slightly angry way with plenty of citations. Internet company valuations are also driven up by a small group of very rich people who all collude to drive up valuations anyway and promote their own rich people agendas anyway. It's not entirely based in the real world and doesn't come under real world scrutiny until it's too late.

I mean this kindly: the tone in which you read comments on the internet can be very dependent on your own mood.

Re: Y Combinator's Altman: What I Worry About in Business [video]

#28

Post by beambot » Tue, Oct 06, 2015, 4:35 AM UTC

firasd wrote: post #14

zem wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

nope. pet peeve - symbolism isn't irrational. "a billion dollars" is a powerful symbol, and may well pay off as much in psychological benefits as it loses in structural weirdness. or it may not, but it's definitely not clear-cut enough to dismiss as "dumb".

Yes but anytime you are engineering “financials” instead of engineering sales and customer satisfaction you are headed down a path that warps things. In the case of unicorn valuations it’s your term sheet: investors who are getting in at high symbolic valuations are asking for special provisions to protect downside that you wouldn’t otherwise grant them.

All of those (eg. sales and psychology) are interrelated. For example, say you're an enterprise SaaS company. Saying, "We have a $1B valuation and aren't going anywhere" actually carries meaningful psychological weight during the sales process -- weight which could be the difference between winning or losing out to a competitor. In that regard, it may matter...

Re: Y Combinator's Altman: What I Worry About in Business [video]

#29

Post by wpietri » Tue, Oct 06, 2015, 4:43 AM UTC

ThomPete wrote: post #5

on_ wrote: post #3

> http://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2015-09-24/y-contributo... Ahh yes, Dan Altman, a recent hire at SV clone "Y Contributor", talks about attention to detail, and working with the Samwer bros. Edit: << pun intended.

I am not actually sure why people have so much against the Samwer brothers. Have they done anything particularly despicable? I know their model is to copy any potential idea coming out of the US which I don't understand the issue with. One thing they really did well was to have a structure that makes it easy for them to localize any company. I hear the work environment is hard but so is it many other places. Or maybe…

Personally, I despise them because they're parasites. I'm also not a big fan of, say, tapeworms. Sure, I don't doubt that tapeworms are also miracles of evolution. And sure, I guess even tapeworms have to eat. But at the end of the day, they're still parasites, and I still think they're repulsive. Ugh.

Re: Y Combinator's Altman: What I Worry About in Business [video]

#30

Post by wpietri » Tue, Oct 06, 2015, 4:46 AM UTC

rokhayakebe wrote: post #9

I would like to see a YC clone for Dude's businesses, companies that interested in building a profitable business that pays dividend yearly. No exit, No billion dollar valuation, actually no valuation necessary.

I love the idea, but would it make money? Lower returns would require lower risks. But with lower returns you'd have fewer resources to invest in picking and supporting the winners, which I'd think would push risks up.