The Future

Exactly. It is very hard to make credible predictions for longer period of time, but linear extrapolation normally works for 2 to 5 year scope http://liuliu.me/eye/predicting-future-2016/

Sadly, I see this article as an overly optimistic view of the not-so-distant future.

Maybe 40 years seems like a lot of time in some fields (electronics, software, human life-span), but not so much in some major areas (culture, some hard sciences, societies, economy).

Yes, the rate of technological advances are sometimes exponential. But in some fields, they are clearly slowing down, and stabilizing. And even when technology can alter our daily lives, introducing new elements to our lives, most changes are introduced as a convenience, or a way to enhance our productivity, but our daily life remains almost the same, in the big scope.

Sometimes, a REAL revolutionary element emerges, like the Internet. Computers enhanced the way companies did their work, but the Internet introduced changes much more intensive, enabling new markets, new products, new channels of communication, and above all, changing how we learn, distributing knowledge, and empowering the people to express and divulge their thoughts and opinions.

But in the end, the core of our lives remains the same. If we compare the daily life of a middle class man living in 1935 (80 years to the past, not just 40), to the daily life of a middle class man living in 2015, we would find, generally speaking, that they are really similar. The general structure remains the same. Sure, we enjoy lots of new gadgets, and maybe work 1 or 2 hours less... some of us.

In 1930, John Maynard Keynes wrote: “Our grandchildren”, would work around “three hours a day”..

"Three-hour shifts or a fifteen-hour week may put off the problem for a great while. For three hours a day is quite enough to satisfy the old Adam in most of us!"

Of course, for the vast part of the society that didn't happen. And that won't happen in the next 80 years...

You'll see... One could argue that our standard of living is better than what kings enjoyed 200 years ago. Better infrastructure, better services, better medicine, less physical work, etc. But that standard of living has a cost. Of course, we live in a society, and we pay that cost between all. And as a society, as we get more specialized and qualified jobs (comparatively better jobs), we "earn more". But we have a lot more things to pay for. More services, more products, more everything. And then comes inflation. In the end, this is the key: Cost of living adjusts as we move forward in time, as we introduce new elements in our lives.

If someone is not rich, and would want to stop working, he could try to live like a Mennonite, while spending his savings, but that's not what most people want.

So, in order to get better lives and adjust to our new standards, we either work more ours or we try hard to be more productive, more competitive, increase your social network, get more educated to get better jobs, increase our sales, etc. And as we do that, we live more stressed lives.

Real change in our lives comes when major social change arrives. And revolutionary social changes, often comes from complex origins, not easily attributable to a single technological change.

In my previous example, I proposed comparing a man's life in 1935 and 2015. Now, compare an average woman's life in the same years. During WW2, women became part of the labor force. When men came back, women had to go back to their roles as housewives. But didn't last long. Women proved capable of doing "real" work (getting paid), and they claimed their rights to be included. To have a life outside their homes.

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> Almost-free on-demand point-to-point public transit.

Cheaper, probably, but not almost-free. Unless it's a public utility and it's owned and subsidized by a state, then it's going to be profit-based, and given the level of investment needed, it can't be almost-free.

>Magic is real.

As someone else posted, that kind of uses feels awkward.

>A good segment (30%) of the world barely works

As I wrote before, this may happen but not because "people have chosen to check out of the rat race." But because automation and the increasing concentration of wealth is leaving lots of people out of the market.

>Many people live throughout their life in campus environments similar to college campuses of the early 21st century.

Communities and cities growing around major companies is nothing new. On the contrary, that was far more common in the early 20th century. And it wasn't really a nice environment. What the future will see, is the expansion and proliferation of gated communities. And eventually, private cities. Nordelta, in Argentina, is an example of that. With 5 schools, medical center, 20 restaurants, shopping center, hotels, golf, sports fields, parks, offices, etc. And of course, high density != friends.

>Hyper-personalized healthcare.

For the ones who can pay it. This is one of the areas where the difference between high-end and low-end services will increase enormously. If you are rich, custom-made organs and genetic treatments, tailored just for you, will be available. If not... you'll have something a little better than now, but not that much better.

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So, in general, what I care the most about the future are the big social changes, and those are not necessarily the technological ones. Those are my predictions:

- Middle East will still be a mess. Governments coming and going. Factions fighting for power, etc.

- As the clash of civilization escalates, people will take refuge in their own value systems. Ethnocentrism and Xenophobia will increase A LOT. More and more.

- Religion will recover lost ground in the west and the far east. We saw this happen in the Middle East, when secular governments fell (some puppets, some dictatorships and monarchies) and theocratic and radicalized movements expanded their influence. I'm seeing this happening in some parts of Europe and Latin America.

- A new wave of New-Age like movements will make appearance, promoting healthier spiritual lives.

- The gap between the rich and the poor will increase.

- As China's economy and influence expands, and it's workforce is paid better, new opportunities rise in cheaper-labor countries, and many companies will move their production centers. This poses a threat to the Chinese Government.

- US and China economies are very entangled. So, direct confrontation benefits no-one. A new economic cold war, under the table, will be fought. Something like the current Cyberwar.

- Eventually, the world will see the first WMD attack (radiological, bio or chemical).

- We'll see the rise of a new kind of fascism or pseudo-Nazism. This is one of the things that scares me the most.

- As we get used to mass surveillance, our expectancy of privacy will go to the floor. And the sad part is that we'll get used to it. And we may even convince ourselves that this is for the better.

- Proxy wars between China, Russia and USA will be fought in Asia and Africa.

- The quest for ever-cheaper labor will lead to Africa.

- A large scale cyberwar will be executed.

- But eventually, money (and not war nor peace) will find the way.

While I try to be realistic, I seem to have a pessimistic view of what's to come.

That reads like one of the flying car predictions from the 50's. Here's my prediction: the future in 40 years will not look and feel much different than the present, or 40 years, or 100 years in the past, at least in the '1st world'. Fashion will look different, music will sound different. Faster and smaller computers are hardly life-changing, especially if they are only used to make your restaurant order easier. Autonomous cars are useless when people no longer need to travel large distances day by day.

The biggest change will be that more people in the 3rd world will enjoy better living standards, and that's a huge achievement on its own. We don't need flying cars for that.

Free public transit and easier restaurant ordering with wearables? India dominating the world? Little college campus utopias were everyone is smart and rides bikes?

Sounds like someone has spent too much time in the tech industry in San Fransisco and perhaps should broaden their perspective a bit. Maybe go back to Ohio and look at the meth labs and bulldogs and then think about the future. Also, 30% of the world (at least) probably barely works now. This includes to some extent people who are nominally employed.