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Not a Luddite fallacy (2011)

baatz.io

21–30 of 74 posts

Re: Not a Luddite fallacy (2011)

#21

What I always wonder about with this formula is how many human jobs from the US have been shipped overseas to other humans who cost less? Those jobs are still being done by people, we just aren't cost competitive in labor for the mass of unskilled job opportunities. It seems like something like the Fair Tax, where legal citizens get a stipend every month to offset the sales tax against basic needs, that came with a s…

I'm uneasy with talk about "getting jobs back". It means taking the bread from the mouths of third world people trying to industrialize. So we can feel better about fewer people on welfare.

Re: Not a Luddite fallacy (2011)

#22
post #10
post #4

It's not here yet , but automation able to fully replace human beings for a huge number of jobs will eventually come. At that point a universal basic income will be the only option other than walling off the majority of humanity in ghettoes. Totalitarian "poverty state" or post-scarcity socialism, take your pick. I say this as a somewhat-former libertarian, and partly out of libertarian sentiment. The totalitarian st…

Fortunately, the future is arriving slowly because so much time is wasted having silly debates on the Internet. No need to worry about it in our lifetime.

How old are you? The social unrest is going to come way before people are walled off in ghettoes. If, like me, you are a programmer earning 6 figures, you may not feel rich,but you are certainly perceived that way by the increasing number who are struggling.

Re: Not a Luddite fallacy (2011)

#23
post #20

What I always wonder about with this formula is how many human jobs from the US have been shipped overseas to other humans who cost less? Those jobs are still being done by people, we just aren't cost competitive in labor for the mass of unskilled job opportunities. It seems like something like the Fair Tax, where legal citizens get a stipend every month to offset the sales tax against basic needs, that came with a s…

Except that increased money supply means inflation which means that middle & upper class can buy less than before. E.g. someone with a medium salary might only get 20% higher income post-stipend but prices would rise more.

Fair Tax eliminates the income tax though, which would take care of that completely.

Re: Not a Luddite fallacy (2011)

#25
post #18

" I hope I have been able to convince you that the Luddite fallacy is not a fallacy and that this will have significant economic and social implications. " I'm sorry, did you actually make an argument? All I could find was some un-supported assertions.

No, not for it having significant economic and social implications, that's more a corollary of employment rate decreasing -- I'll change that sentence. The argument for the Luddite fallacy not being a fallacy was that humans have so far been able to compete with technology, but that we're fast losing that edge and when that happens things really are different this time. Does that make sense?

Re: Not a Luddite fallacy (2011)

#26

Required reading anytime someone invokes the word "Luddite": http://www.amazon.com/Rebels-Against-The-Future-Industrial/d... Enclosure ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enclosure ) is suspiciously never mentioned whenever the Luddites are invoked. It's not as simple as "technology took muh job, rar!" -- it's more like "hey, this common land that used to belong to all of us has been forcibly taken away and given to this…

Even when it is as simply as technology putting someone out of work it is a joke to then tell them, "It is ok, you and your fellow workers may be out of work but ultimately the unemployment level won't rise, so chill out."

This is especially condescending before the creation of unemployment insurance and the welfare state. You can't feed your family with without your job.

Those ease the pain, ultimately a democratic economy is needed so technology cuts the amount of work we all have to do.

Re: Not a Luddite fallacy (2011)

#27
It's not clear why the author thinks it's not a fallacy.

What bothers me about this sort of discussion, though, is the assumption that we need to work. I want technology to do my job for me, so I can focus on fun stuff. But for that to work, we should change our economic system so we don't need to work, or at least not as much.

What technology has really done, is not so much take away people's jobs, but make capital investment an increasingly large part of productivity, leading all the profits of this increased productivity to end up with the small elite that controls the capital. Look at how much wealth inequality has grown over the past 100 years, particularly in the US.

Keynes predicted in the 1930s that due to increased productivity, we'd all have to work a lot less than we're currently doing. He's wrong because the benefits of our increased productivity are not distributed equally.

In short: we need a basic income. Or something else to ensure that everybody benefits from this.

Re: Not a Luddite fallacy (2011)

#28
post #13
post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It seems that you do not account for falling prices due to automation. And the cost of automated machines will fall too.

That will happen for automation and manufactured goods, but not for assets and anything else leveraged. If anything the in-deflation we are seeing today will be amplified as central banks will be forced to keep money cheap to avoid total deflationary collapse. Picture a $5 million starter home that costs This is what a post-scarcity society in denial looks like. The reason cities like SF and NYC and London already lo…

Can you recommend any further reading for in-deflation?

Re: Not a Luddite fallacy (2011)

#29

Required reading anytime someone invokes the word "Luddite": http://www.amazon.com/Rebels-Against-The-Future-Industrial/d... Enclosure ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enclosure ) is suspiciously never mentioned whenever the Luddites are invoked. It's not as simple as "technology took muh job, rar!" -- it's more like "hey, this common land that used to belong to all of us has been forcibly taken away and given to this…

Luddites may be the best example ever that history is written by the winners.

Suffice to say, early industrialization was abysmal for the workers, who really had no choice but to take whatever bad deals they were given. Corporal punishments were used to inflict respect and security didn't exist.

So Luddites were bascially revolts, and in several ways a precursor to the worker's movement that came later. It nearly escalated into civil war (at one point more soldiers were occupied with fighting Luddites than Napoleon). Leaders were tortured and killed.

In propaganda, they were bascically pictured as lazy and/or against technology itself, which carried over to the modern meaning of the word. Well worth a read.

Re: Not a Luddite fallacy (2011)

#30
Let's suppose for a moment that we accept the thesis that due to automation, there won't be much work for humans in the future.

Instead of taking wealth from the smaller number of humans who are creating that wealth and giving it to those who are not, why don't we just accept that we don't need so many of us any more? Let the extras die off naturally (note to angry skimmers: I SAID NATURALLY) and migrate to a new lower-population equilibrium. There have been a lot of explanations offered for why the world's more advanced economies have been seeing lower birth rates for decades, but one rarely reads the most obvious one: people are having fewer children because fewer humans are needed. This isn't a problem to be solved, it's a boon to future generations.

While some resources are created through economic activity driven by humans, others (most notably land, in the form of space between neighbors who desire it, frontiers, the economic viability of wilderness conservation, and of course land for economic purposes) are fixed. If fewer humans can create just as much of the variable stuff while leaving more of the fixed stuff for each one, how is that not better for all? The vast majority of humans, if not literally every last one, will be much wealthier. And that's even before we consider the fundamental unfairness of redistribution, or the waste associated with the political and bureaucratic machines it entails.

Instead of thinking about how to redistribute the dividends from automation, we should be making sure we won't have to. In a given environment, every species has an optimal population. If we alter our environment such that fewer humans can produce the same amount of wealth as more humans, that optimal population has decreased. We need to accept that and adjust to it, not fight it with gimmickry and theft. If (and it's a big if) automation is really going to put billions of people out of productive work, then the only sustainable answer to that is fewer people. Embrace it.

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