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Google Self-Driving Car Project's first vehicle prototype

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Re: Google Self-Driving Car Project's first vehicle prototype

#191

Post by ghaff »

eru wrote: post #136
ghaff wrote: post #88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

From a technology perspective as well, autonomous operations on designated sections of highways seems much more practical and nearer-term than visions of robo-Uber. I suspect a lot of the enthusiasm comes from urbanites who only marginally need a car today. And the capability gap between today's assistive technologies or even truly autonomous highway operations and being able to just virtually hail a robotic cab in a…

I think a robo-Uber is more likely. Mostly because the designated highway sections would require concerted public actions and overcoming a lot of NIMBYs. Robo-Uber requires to solve technical problems (and some regulation). Designated lanes are more of a social problem. (We could have had automatic driving on designated roads for decades; just make the cars run on rails, too.)

>Mostly because the designated highway sections would require concerted public actions and overcoming a lot of NIMBYs.

But it's much closer to being technically feasible than the general case.

That said, I don't really disagree with your point which is one reason why it's further out than a lot of enthusiasts would like to think. The likely scenario is that (initially) high-end luxury cars will get features that could allow them to operate autonomously on designated sections of highway. The problem, as you point out, is that it would take concerted public action to change laws and designate those sections (perhaps requiring some sort of radio beacons to enforce the designation). That's a fair bit of public action, and probably at least some money, to let "rich" people fiddle with their phones while tooling down 280 or wherever. I'm not sure it's something I, as a politician, would be anxious to champion.

I suppose there could be commercial benefits as well--trucking and so forth--but given that you still need to pay a human to sit in the vehicle, it's unclear that highway-only self-driving would given businesses much of an economic win.

Re: Google Self-Driving Car Project's first vehicle prototype

#192

Post by ghaff »

bsdetector wrote: post #177
eru wrote: post #136

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think a robo-Uber is more likely. Mostly because the designated highway sections would require concerted public actions and overcoming a lot of NIMBYs. Robo-Uber requires to solve technical problems (and some regulation). Designated lanes are more of a social problem. (We could have had automatic driving on designated roads for decades; just make the cars run on rails, too.)

On the other hand highways are much simpler and could be completely self-driven with today's technology, probably much more safely than a human driver. This takes people out of high-stakes boring driving where the vast majority of fatalities take place and give them an easier, safer commute. I can't react to debris in the road, a pothole, or a deer crossing the road in 1 ms like an automated driver can and at 80 MPH…

I don't think you need to assume switching driving modes to a flatbed which would introduce bottlenecks and reduce flexibility compared to individually autonomous vehicles.

>I can't react to debris in the road, a pothole, or a deer crossing the road in 1 ms like an automated driver can and at 80 MPH that's where it really matters.

The laws of physics still apply but, yes, in general a computer could do a better job--at least on average--than a person. (Although I suspect there will be some things a computer is very good at and a few where it tends to make errors that a human might avoid.)

I agree with your basic point though that autonomous driving on significant sections of highway is by itself a big win even though it doesn't fundamentally change how most people own and drive cars.

Re: Google Self-Driving Car Project's first vehicle prototype

#193

Post by lallysingh »

aetherson wrote: post #82
millstone wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My family doesn't own our cars because we like driving them. We own them for convenience! The prospect of ordering a car, waiting for it to arrive, futzing with car seats, transferring car toys, dealing with scarcity and surge pricing, etc. for every trip is very unappealing. And renting is usually more expensive than owning anyways! In the near term, I'm looking forwards to hybrid assistive technologies. We took a v…

I think that virtually nobody who is certain that self-driving cars will be short-term rentals (ie, the Uber model) has children. It's a HUGE blind spot that the of course mostly very young, mostly childless tech commentariat has. The value of car ownership as a way to have large amounts of your property available at whatever location you are presently at without you constantly engaging in a bunch of loading and unlo…

When you start going up the ladder in the tech community, you'll see that people are older and have children.

The reason that kids aren't discussed in this scenario is that they don't present any complications, technically or business-wise. If you've got that much stuff to carry with them, then swap the cache you're using the car for with a big bag. Then move the big bag in and out of the car as needed. If that's too much hassle, then you're out of luck. You've got too much value in the vehicle when it's not operating (for storage).

Re: Google Self-Driving Car Project's first vehicle prototype

#194

Post by moe »

2muchcoffeeman wrote: post #183
moe wrote: post #160

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A Google car can do that? Yes. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TsaES--OTzM

They have videos of their cars handling common cases. But what about the corner cases? I've had a sign disappear on me over night which changed the roads rules at a tricky intersection. There has been a lot of construction in my area so 2 lane roads had a lane closed off and a traffic controller managed traffic across a single lane. I've even seen a road that you could drive into and out of, become a road that you ca…

Did you even watch the video?

The google cars have no memory of what was "yesterday".

Re: Google Self-Driving Car Project's first vehicle prototype

#195

Post by jshevek »

nickik wrote: post #188
DougWebb wrote: post #155

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Aren't most tanks driven by teenagers already? Of course, they get very specialized training, but it still shows that teens can handle that responsibility under the right circumstances. Actually, I don't really know: how old are the soldiers in a typical tank crew? I guess they might have a couple of years in the service before they get into a tank, so maybe they're early 20's rather than teens.

Real tanks mostly do not drive threw dense citys, so its mute.

> Real tanks mostly do not drive threw dense citys, so its mute

Tanks are not usually quiet, whether driving or throwing.

Re: Google Self-Driving Car Project's first vehicle prototype

#196

Post by bsdetector »

ghaff wrote: post #192
bsdetector wrote: post #177

Earlier quoted context omitted.

On the other hand highways are much simpler and could be completely self-driven with today's technology, probably much more safely than a human driver. This takes people out of high-stakes boring driving where the vast majority of fatalities take place and give them an easier, safer commute. I can't react to debris in the road, a pothole, or a deer crossing the road in 1 ms like an automated driver can and at 80 MPH…

I don't think you need to assume switching driving modes to a flatbed which would introduce bottlenecks and reduce flexibility compared to individually autonomous vehicles. >I can't react to debris in the road, a pothole, or a deer crossing the road in 1 ms like an automated driver can and at 80 MPH that's where it really matters. The laws of physics still apply but, yes, in general a computer could do a better job--…

I'd heard that the actual reliable sensors that can see through rain and such are like $50k+ so are not affordable in private cars, but a service that uses it all the time could. I wouldn't want to fall asleep with today's consumer-grade hardware, but you're right that even an autopilot that has to be supervised still has most of the safety benefits.

Re: Google Self-Driving Car Project's first vehicle prototype

#197

Post by eru »

bsdetector wrote: post #196
ghaff wrote: post #192

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think you need to assume switching driving modes to a flatbed which would introduce bottlenecks and reduce flexibility compared to individually autonomous vehicles. >I can't react to debris in the road, a pothole, or a deer crossing the road in 1 ms like an automated driver can and at 80 MPH that's where it really matters. The laws of physics still apply but, yes, in general a computer could do a better job--…

I'd heard that the actual reliable sensors that can see through rain and such are like $50k+ so are not affordable in private cars, but a service that uses it all the time could. I wouldn't want to fall asleep with today's consumer-grade hardware, but you're right that even an autopilot that has to be supervised still has most of the safety benefits.

You could also let the cars network, to leverage multiple sensors (some of them way ahead of your car).

Re: Google Self-Driving Car Project's first vehicle prototype

#198

Post by rtpg »

Pyxl101 wrote: post #166
rtpg wrote: post #134

Earlier quoted context omitted.

only better for rich people. Rent seeking does not follow free market principles (due to fixed supply), and so loses any form of moral highground in my opinion.

Surge pricing is not rent-seeking. If the surge pricing was not warranted by the situation, then it creates a trivial way for competitors to eat the business's lunch by offering the same service at a slightly lower price. "Uber is surge pricing right now but Lyft is not, so I'll get my ride with Lyft" Surge pricing is a legitimate function of a properly functioning market. When demand has skyrocketed, or supply is co…

Surge pricing in Uber's case is not rent-seeking if surge-pricing actually increases supply (i.e. more drivers on the road). My gut says it doesn't ( don't think that drivers get out on the road fast enough), but I don't have the data to prove that.

But in the case of parking spaces, I don't see how me being able to out-bid you for the last space makes me a more qualified candidate for that parking space. I'm paying a higher price for the same good, the number of spaces isn't going up, and the owner got richer without adding any value. Textbook definition of rent-seeking if I've ever seen one.

High parking tension means that people will try to make more parking, but is that the most effecient allocation of resources? What about alternative solutions, like mass transit? This is a digression, but you mentioned it with supply.

On a more pragmatic level I don't really think the ultra-rich have that much more of a right to a parking space downtown on a Saturday any more than I do, and a parking space is more or less a public good (and should be shared as such).

Re: Google Self-Driving Car Project's first vehicle prototype

#199

Post by jpatokal »

lallysingh wrote: post #193
aetherson wrote: post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think that virtually nobody who is certain that self-driving cars will be short-term rentals (ie, the Uber model) has children. It's a HUGE blind spot that the of course mostly very young, mostly childless tech commentariat has. The value of car ownership as a way to have large amounts of your property available at whatever location you are presently at without you constantly engaging in a bunch of loading and unlo…

When you start going up the ladder in the tech community, you'll see that people are older and have children. The reason that kids aren't discussed in this scenario is that they don't present any complications, technically or business-wise. If you've got that much stuff to carry with them, then swap the cache you're using the car for with a big bag. Then move the big bag in and out of the car as needed. If that's too…

I think you've just proved the previous poster's point here: child seats alone most certainly present "complications". They have to be fitted precisely to your child, they're a pain in the ass to install, and they have to be installed carefully, or they're worse than useless in an accident. For a typical parent use case like taking your kid to daycare and back, installing and fitting a seat twice a day in any sort of rental car is a complete non-starter.

Re: Google Self-Driving Car Project's first vehicle prototype

#200

Post by minot »

rtpg wrote: post #198
Pyxl101 wrote: post #166

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Surge pricing is not rent-seeking. If the surge pricing was not warranted by the situation, then it creates a trivial way for competitors to eat the business's lunch by offering the same service at a slightly lower price. "Uber is surge pricing right now but Lyft is not, so I'll get my ride with Lyft" Surge pricing is a legitimate function of a properly functioning market. When demand has skyrocketed, or supply is co…

Surge pricing in Uber's case is not rent-seeking if surge-pricing actually increases supply (i.e. more drivers on the road). My gut says it doesn't ( don't think that drivers get out on the road fast enough), but I don't have the data to prove that. But in the case of parking spaces, I don't see how me being able to out-bid you for the last space makes me a more qualified candidate for that parking space. I'm paying…

> Surge pricing in Uber's case is not rent-seeking if surge-pricing actually increases supply (i.e. more drivers on the road). My gut says it doesn't ( don't think that drivers get out on the road fast enough), but I don't have the data to prove that.

From what I understand, fear and hatred drive public policy more than objective data does. I doubt it is going to change any time soon.

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