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Developers are the autoworkers of our generation

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Re: Developers are the autoworkers of our generation

#191

Post by seanmcdirmid »

michaelochurch wrote: post #189
zeteo wrote: post #179

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>perhaps the answer is that there is no barrier, and we're about to get flooded with supply. One of my earliest memories is listening to my old grandpa give multiple arguments as to why computers were a passing fad. Needless to say, he was somewhat incorrect. Just because something is on the ascendant doesn't mean it will hit the corresponding descendant anytime soon. What killed autoworkers' jobs more than anything…

It costs nothing to write software with software, you don't need big hulking robots to do it. But it's also a job that has lots of variety; each day you have to solve unexpected, frustrating, novel problems. Not a task for the average robot (or even the average person IMHO). We have software "robots" that write software and many of us use them frequently. They're called compilers. They do the repetitive and detailed…

> We have software "robots" that write software and many of us use them frequently. They're called compilers.

Compilers automate a simple but tedious translation process. They do not "write programs", they merely translate (hopefully in a deterministic way) one stream of text (PL code) into another stream of text (machine code). They apply no creativity to the problem, and indeed was once done by hand with what were essentially secretary pools (Grace Hopper got her start there, thankfully she moved up pretty quickly). Compilers eliminated this work, but the persons handing the high-level programs to the "human compilers" (the former usually men, the latter usually women, the 50s were pretty sexist) still had a job that was relatively the same (just now they had to deal with punchcards).

> Programming is still challenging. That won't end in the next 50 years.

Programming ends as a profession of course once we hit singularity, which is anywhere from 20 to 100 years away depending on who you ask. We already do not code many systems by hand, but instead meta-code algorithms to generate these systems from corpus training inputs (aka machine learning). No one would try and build a speech recognition system by hand anymore. We will see machine learning increasingly encroaching on what used to be pure programming tasks.

Re: Developers are the autoworkers of our generation

#192

Post by bluedino »

seanmcdirmid wrote: post #190
bluedino wrote: post #184

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>> What killed autoworkers' jobs more than anything else was automation. Many, many things killed autoworkers jobs but automation was the least of their worries. If you want to credit it to one thing, it'd be competition . The non-American automakers made cars that lasted longer, got better mileage, and were more reliable. The Big Three could just shovel shit onto dealer lots and it was gobbled up. Everyone has getti…

The Japanese car makers are even more into automation than we North Americans and Europeans are. And the results are actually better: people make mistakes, they are not precise; machines on the other hand are very precise. Automation most definitely was killing the American auto worker...then China comes along and starts killing automation with very cheap labor. But we don't buy cars from China, the same Japanese car…

We joked about Korean cars for a while, it will take time but Chinese cars are coming.

Re: Developers are the autoworkers of our generation

#193

Post by seanmcdirmid »

bluedino wrote: post #192
seanmcdirmid wrote: post #190

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Japanese car makers are even more into automation than we North Americans and Europeans are. And the results are actually better: people make mistakes, they are not precise; machines on the other hand are very precise. Automation most definitely was killing the American auto worker...then China comes along and starts killing automation with very cheap labor. But we don't buy cars from China, the same Japanese car…

We joked about Korean cars for a while, it will take time but Chinese cars are coming.

The Koreans likewise adopted automation. The Chinese cars are not getting good until they get over their addiction to cheap labor, and they still have vast reservoirs of that.

Re: Developers are the autoworkers of our generation

#194

Post by redact207 »

seanmcdirmid wrote: post #190
bluedino wrote: post #184

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>> What killed autoworkers' jobs more than anything else was automation. Many, many things killed autoworkers jobs but automation was the least of their worries. If you want to credit it to one thing, it'd be competition . The non-American automakers made cars that lasted longer, got better mileage, and were more reliable. The Big Three could just shovel shit onto dealer lots and it was gobbled up. Everyone has getti…

The Japanese car makers are even more into automation than we North Americans and Europeans are. And the results are actually better: people make mistakes, they are not precise; machines on the other hand are very precise. Automation most definitely was killing the American auto worker...then China comes along and starts killing automation with very cheap labor. But we don't buy cars from China, the same Japanese car…

I'm not so sure about that. Most car factories operate in a pretty similar way ever since the Toyota way and total quality management come out decades ago. Although parts of the assembly line are fully machine driven (chassis welding, spray booth), there are a lot of human zones for assembly.

Yes people do make mistakes, but if you've seen their procedures on how to work, they get instructions right down to how many rotations a bolt requires, then where to put the spanner back down. Sounds micro-managed, but it's how the robotic sensors detect if people are working to the procedure and hence quality targets are being achieved.

China isn't much different (nor Thailand). Back in the 80s & 90s when Japanese electronics and cars were flooding the market everyone saw them like 'cheap junk' akin to how we see China's products. But over time management learns and products get better.

Re: Developers are the autoworkers of our generation

#195

Post by shubb »

jaymzcampbell wrote: post #144
shubb wrote: post #110

I'm not sure I recognize this privileged world you describe. Maybe you won't recognize mine. It's 7pm. About half the team is in the office with me (although all the people managers have gone home). We will be here a while. No one in the room earns more than 10% more than the UK median salary. The highest paid is a front end guy who sits to my right. The two behind me earn less than the median, and live with parents.…

I'm interested to know where you're based, I take it it's not London? A day rate of £150 per day to the customer sounds very low; it's hard to find contract rates that low on the likes of Monster across the UK and typical to see £250-500, so double that for the company hiring out. I've seen rate cards for agencies in advertising charging out developers on projects from £500 to over £1,000 depending on what exactly is…

No, thank you for the reply. I hope I didn't come across as mr gloom.

Concrete answers -

* The 150 - 250 is the rate a junior is charged out at. Seniors are 500-1000. Usually the customer actually gets a quote for 1 senior : 2 junior, i.e. say 450 a day.

* Most people here work normal hours most of the time, although some people and projects do work a more. The project I've been on the past 6 months has a lot of crunch time, so I feel like 'people here work long hours', but actually 'my team work long hours'. And yes, not paying overtime on a project that needs it is a bit yuck.

Regarding pay, the sense I get is that outside finance, new programmers get 25-30k depending on quality, and after about 5 years, get 30-40k. These are actually very comfortable salaries, depending on where you live. Pay at this place is strangely poor, given that I think the people I work with are actually quite good.

I posted that because I read on HN, or around the net, a lot of people saying things like '6 figure salaries', or 'I quite my job as a finance quant because programming pays better'. Not round here it don't.

I'm fine with that. I'm glad I get to spend my days playing a beautifully convoluted puzzle game, or imagining things and then making them happen. I just get wierded out by the disconnect I'm seeing.

Re: Developers are the autoworkers of our generation

#196

Post by shubb »

marincounty wrote: post #130
VLM wrote: post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Given the high dropout rate of anyone attempting to learn programming Its about the same as any other major. I googled around and found the 1999 cohort for Southeast Louisiana University (no particular reason, just google found it easily...) and they tracked freshmen's declared major and what they actually graduated with, if anything, after six years. In comp sci, it is true that 93% of self declared freshman comp s…

Let's not forget one thing. Computer Science can be extremely boring for many young people. It's a man made science(meaning it's different than, let's say, biology.) As a younger lad, I couldn't imagine having to spend my working life in front of a computer screen. These are just my observations, and yes--some of you will have jobs for life. In all honesty, I don't love computers, or even the Internet. I was forced t…

Heh, programming is very much about living in your imagination. I love reading, especially long series of novels. When the last book is finished, and that world vanishes before my eyes, it leaves an emptiness for days.

Like reading a book transports me away from my dull seat on a long plane journey, it doesn't matter that you are sat in the same place every day. The point is that there is always a fresh problem, or that you can see the new thing you want to build in your minds eye, if only you could just figure out how to do it.

So maybe teenage you wouldn't understand. Did he really understand why you might want to stay with the same woman for ever (or why you didn't)? Or that your dad is okay really, but he isn't there for ever? Teenagers don't get a lot of things.

Teenage me was dreadful. If I don't impress him, I'm probably doing okay.

Re: Developers are the autoworkers of our generation

#197

Post by seanmcdirmid »

redact207 wrote: post #194
seanmcdirmid wrote: post #190

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Japanese car makers are even more into automation than we North Americans and Europeans are. And the results are actually better: people make mistakes, they are not precise; machines on the other hand are very precise. Automation most definitely was killing the American auto worker...then China comes along and starts killing automation with very cheap labor. But we don't buy cars from China, the same Japanese car…

I'm not so sure about that. Most car factories operate in a pretty similar way ever since the Toyota way and total quality management come out decades ago. Although parts of the assembly line are fully machine driven (chassis welding, spray booth), there are a lot of human zones for assembly. Yes people do make mistakes, but if you've seen their procedures on how to work, they get instructions right down to how many…

Toyota's reputation here in China is much lower than I remember it being in the states, and the only difference are the Chinese JV factories, which I guess are just inferior in quality. The level of automation in Chinese factories is much lower than in Japan or North America given that (a) labor is cheap and (b) importing machinery is tariffed and very expensive.

But Toyota's reputation is nowhere near as bad as that of Chinese brands. No one wants to drive a Xiali even if it is essentially a Corolla in design.

Japanese electronics and cars were already considered to be very good by the mid 80s. Japan ALWAYS had a strong culture in design and quality, and it was only post war where they had to play catch up again; there is no mystery about Japanese success. The Chinese, on the other hand, have a much greater problem of converting from a primarily rural to an industrial economy, a problem Japan did not have post war (the Meiji restoration already happened while the Chinese were going through late Qing chaos). I'm not experienced with Thailand's auto industry (beyond that they dominate in pickup trucks).

Re: Developers are the autoworkers of our generation

#198

Post by kamaal »

michaelochurch wrote: post #189
zeteo wrote: post #179

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>perhaps the answer is that there is no barrier, and we're about to get flooded with supply. One of my earliest memories is listening to my old grandpa give multiple arguments as to why computers were a passing fad. Needless to say, he was somewhat incorrect. Just because something is on the ascendant doesn't mean it will hit the corresponding descendant anytime soon. What killed autoworkers' jobs more than anything…

It costs nothing to write software with software, you don't need big hulking robots to do it. But it's also a job that has lots of variety; each day you have to solve unexpected, frustrating, novel problems. Not a task for the average robot (or even the average person IMHO). We have software "robots" that write software and many of us use them frequently. They're called compilers. They do the repetitive and detailed…

>>Programming is still challenging. That won't end in the next 50 years.

So is building cars. Or anything for that matter. Problems in every profession have just gone to a whole new level.

When automation kicks in, you won't need humans to go and solve trivial issues. And there fore what will be left is jobs for people who would like to work on things that can't be automated. Stuff like solving problems no one else has solved before. And creating something or improving something. And things on those lines.

Such jobs are always going to stressful, with high chances of failure, will require thinking and working very hard, with repeated sacrifice to your personal and social life. But at the end if you do it right, you might win big.

Currently that is programming, tomorrow it will something else. So as long as our species exists we will have problems to solve.

And that won't end in the next 50,000 years or probably ever.

Re: Developers are the autoworkers of our generation

#199

Post by kamaal »

colanderman wrote: post #111
gnaritas wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I'm told that CS enrollments are now at record highs Given the high dropout rate of anyone attempting to learn programming, I don't think enrollment rate is good metric. > What's the barrier to entry that's keeping us from being flooded with supply? Programming is hard; really f'ing hard, for most people because it requires critical thinking continually and learning continually.

[Programming] requires critical thinking continually and learning continually. Yeah, I've met plenty of programmers who meet neither of those requirements. Most of them have held titles higher than, and almost certainly got paid more than, me. (And yes, their code sucked. But they were still well-compensated.)

That because just like programming politics also requires critical thinking continually and learning continually.

They were not good programmers but better politicians.

Re: Developers are the autoworkers of our generation

#200

Post by nohuck13 »

cturner wrote: post #151
nohuck13 wrote: post #7

Hold on a minute. You can't discuss labor markets without discussing productivity. In the heyday of the automotive industry, the best auto worker in the world produced about the same output as the average auto worker. Maybe they messed up less, but being a genius autoworker didn't let you tower head and shoulders above the competition, because car factories are designed with auto workers as interchangeable parts. We'…

In the heyday of the automotive industry, the best auto worker in the world produced about the same output as the average auto worker Agree. Also, there's a strong trade union theme to the history of autoworkers which doesn't really map to the developer experience. Something related though - what about the toolsmiths who built the factory processes and machines? I'd guess that with those guys there'd have been a big…

I agree that parallel is really interesting. Its especially true with the classic Agile stuff, where a lot of the processes are explicitly borrowed from the automotive industry, particularly Toyota: Kanban (lean process management), kaizen (collective ownership as a means to reduce bugs/defects), the notion that it's better to fail fast and stop the line, rather than send a defective product to downstream processes.
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