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The Tariff Cost: analysis of the costs to Americans from new tariffs on Canada

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Re: The Tariff Cost: analysis of the costs to Americans from new tariffs on Canada

#191

Post by gruez »

conorcleary wrote: post #187
gruez wrote: post #179

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>So its kinda simple, the Dairy Supply system is there to protect the Canadian Dairy industry. If it was removed, we would be flooded with cheap, low-quality US milk. Flooded? Cheap? Yes. Low quality? Doubtful. If quality were the sticking point, you'd expect this would be amicably resolved with equal standards for both domestic and imported milk.

Ok, if not blanket-ststement lower quality, it's definitely less regulated than CDN dairy.

>it's definitely less regulated than CDN dairy.

Again, if that were the sticking point that can be fixed with rules around imports. The fact that these negotiations always end with quotas and/or tariffs strongly suggests the reason is political (ie. lobbying).

Re: The Tariff Cost: analysis of the costs to Americans from new tariffs on Canada

#192

Post by SpicyLemonZest »

ericmay wrote: post #168
SpicyLemonZest wrote: post #162

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We're talking about different things. The French withdrawal from NATO unified command is a good example of what it means to say relationships can't just be repaired; it took 43 years to bring them back! It's true that the news can overstate just how much things have changed. The US and Canada remain major trade partners and strong allies, with NORAD currently in the middle of a week-long joint exercise, and it's unli…

But they can be repaired. The OP claimed: > Other administrations will not be able to repair the damage So if you disagree with them you should reply to them and let them know the damage can be repaired.

Again, we're talking about different things. What the OP understands "repair the damage" to mean, which I know because I've seen the expectation myself in the wild, is that the next administration can restore the 2024 status quo by just going on a really compelling apology tour. I don't think that's likely; we're still going to see Canadians boycotting random consumer goods, Europeans demanding that everyone should move off American tech ASAP, and countries in general being a lot less willing to negotiate for trade agreements the Americans can't credibly promise to keep.

Re: The Tariff Cost: analysis of the costs to Americans from new tariffs on Canada

#193

Post by Terr_ »

SmirkingRevenge wrote: post #118
lenerdenator wrote: post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The US is able to afford a trader imbalance because the USD is the world's reserve currency. Other countries are subsidizing our trade imbalance. It's a huge win for the US. The geopolitical calculations regarding China and the socioeconomic conditions of working class people in the Midwestern and Northeastern United States would beg to differ. You need to have at least some control of your own manufacturing destin…

Also FWIW - the US is the second largest manufacturer in the world, only behind China due to it's larger population. Our productivity per worker blows China away (though they are catching up) and is the best in the world. We manufacture plenty and do it well. This idea that we have lost manufacturing and we need some push to onshore it all again is... well... another manufactured problem that isn't.

Or any rate it's mischaracterizing and confusing (A) "we miss having lots of good paying manufacturing jobs" with (B) "America needs to manufacture and export more widgets."

It doesn't matter what the trade policy is: Those amounts/types of jobs are gone and won't come back with demand--not unless something else happens too, like outlawing robots and making unions mandatory.

Re: The Tariff Cost: analysis of the costs to Americans from new tariffs on Canada

#194

Post by swat535 »

b112 wrote: post #158
voidfunc wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Its all a precursor to setting up a reason to invade Canada. If Canada moves on with a threat to do something with energy then buckle up.

That'd be the dumbest thing the US has ever done. The next 50 years would be as Vietnam, with people indistinguishable from Americans, sneaking across the border 8000km long, to explode, and kill, and destroy. A Vietnam that never ends, and is local. Not to mention, Canada can make nukes if it wants to. It just doesn't. It gave them up, but still has the plans.

I don't think it would be a military invasion, more like an economical one.

Canada relies on US and is isolated from the rest of the world, US can strangle it economically if need be until it folds.

They can also cause divisions inside the country and disrupt it.. we're seeing this already in Alberta.

Canada is vulnerable.

Re: The Tariff Cost: analysis of the costs to Americans from new tariffs on Canada

#195

Post by gruez »

mthoms wrote: post #188
gruez wrote: post #182

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Aside from that, the "obvious" dairy tariffs you speak of are almost entirely theoretical. Those are anti-dumping tariffs that kick-in only when a certain threshold has been met. It never has. What about others' contention that the reason why the quota hasn't been hit is that it's a pain to make use of? https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49455381

Huh? That's exactly what I described and linked to.

How do you square your initial statement about how the tariffs are "almost entirely theoretical" and "anti-dumping", then in the next paragraph you seemingly walk back on that, but then move the goalposts to something like "well ok the tariffs might not be only theoretical, but trump is still wrong because he used the phrase 'ripped off'" and that "Nobody has been over-charged", despite the comment you were replying to never mentioned "over-charged", only "Canadian imposed tariffs on dairy". By all accounts that's true. The tariffs do exist, even if nobody pays them. The fact there's some complicated workaround doesn't mean it doesn't exist.

Yes, there was some nuance added around how the quotas work and how there are exemptions, but to use that as an excuse to dismiss the comment as a "falsehood" gives me similar vibes to the infamous fact check "clinton acid washed her server - DEBUNKED, she used bleachbit!"

Re: The Tariff Cost: analysis of the costs to Americans from new tariffs on Canada

#196

Post by b112 »

swat535 wrote: post #194
b112 wrote: post #158

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That'd be the dumbest thing the US has ever done. The next 50 years would be as Vietnam, with people indistinguishable from Americans, sneaking across the border 8000km long, to explode, and kill, and destroy. A Vietnam that never ends, and is local. Not to mention, Canada can make nukes if it wants to. It just doesn't. It gave them up, but still has the plans.

I don't think it would be a military invasion, more like an economical one. Canada relies on US and is isolated from the rest of the world, US can strangle it economically if need be until it folds. They can also cause divisions inside the country and disrupt it.. we're seeing this already in Alberta. Canada is vulnerable.

Canada is already mostly through, setting up trade agreements with the entire rest of the world. It's amazing what can be accomplished, when it's clear that everybody wants to bypass a certain country.

The whole world is going to trade with each other, and just ignore the United States. It'll be a rough five to ten years of transition, but there's been lots of economic situations like that. The US is the past, it's relevance waning.

The US is also far more vulnerable. It's 90% of the way to a civil war already.

Alberta has been going on for decades.

Re: The Tariff Cost: analysis of the costs to Americans from new tariffs on Canada

#197

Post by bvanheu »

asvitkine wrote: post #189
realo wrote: post #136

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am Canadian. Never, ever would i knowingly buy any dairy products from the USA , at any price. We have cows too, and farmers.

Do you never have Philadelphia cream cheese? Just wondering.

Philadelphia is seen as a cheap product in Canada, similar category as Cheese Wizz etc.

Re: The Tariff Cost: analysis of the costs to Americans from new tariffs on Canada

#198

Post by ncphillips »

cwillu wrote: post #45
ericmay wrote: post #6

> And Canada is taxing you back This seems illogical. You can't simultaneously claim that the US is paying higher prices for Canadian goods because of US-imposed tariffs and then turn around and say only that Americans are paying a tax on buying Canadian goods on Canadian-imposed tariffs. Both countries are either paying higher prices or paying higher taxes. Canada's tariffs must also be viewed as America is taxing C…

If you're going to talk about canadian dairy tariffs, please note that (a) this was originally negotiated by trump the last time he was in office, and (b) the tariff only applies when the total imports exceed a limit, which iirc has never actually been exceeded.

Canadian here…we also just dont want US milk

Re: The Tariff Cost: analysis of the costs to Americans from new tariffs on Canada

#199

Post by ncphillips »

asvitkine wrote: post #189
realo wrote: post #136

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am Canadian. Never, ever would i knowingly buy any dairy products from the USA , at any price. We have cows too, and farmers.

Do you never have Philadelphia cream cheese? Just wondering.

In Canada It’s made with Canadian milk.

There’s also other brands of cream cheese.

Re: The Tariff Cost: analysis of the costs to Americans from new tariffs on Canada

#200

Post by ncphillips »

nba456_ wrote: post #68
cwillu wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you're going to talk about canadian dairy tariffs, please note that (a) this was originally negotiated by trump the last time he was in office, and (b) the tariff only applies when the total imports exceed a limit, which iirc has never actually been exceeded.

It's never been exceeded because who's going to bother shipping dairy to Canada when you'll be taxed to hell the moment you sell any real volume.

Nah because none of us will buy it
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