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Fable and the end of the free lunch

dbreunig.com

191–200 of 268 posts

Re: Fable and the end of the free lunch

#191
post #2

The real revolution is Deepseek v4 flash and similar models (GPT 5.6 Luna, muse spark 1.2, mimo, etc...) - Genuinely good performance for a tiny fraction of the cost of Fable and even GLM etc... I think a lot of people would be very content if they never got smarter, and just kept getting even cheaper/faster. Of course, both things continue to happen on a seemingly monthly basis

Evidence actually supports that capabilities are leveling off, and cheaper/faster is not really coming. Just log-linearly more capability at smaller parameter counts as they saturate.

> Evidence actually supports that capabilities are leveling off

What evidence?

Re: Fable and the end of the free lunch

#192

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What about censorship? > I will be able to use them forever Where will you run them when powerful enough GPU and RAM are only sold to hyperscalers?

> Where will you run them when powerful enough GPU and RAM are only sold to hyperscalers? Do you think that fabrication will never progress (in volume) than what we have now? The hyperscalers are already having trouble paying the bills, they can't keep this up forever.

The hyperscalers will be bailed (maybe not all of them but enough). US economy will crash if not. And whatever is made will go to them, because they pay more (thanks to US taxpayer bucks among other things) than any regular person. First they build on land then they build in space.

Re: Fable and the end of the free lunch

#193
I think that the publishing of K3 and Sol proved another thing, following the Moore's Law comparison: that the real deal was not only upgrading the number of neurons (as it was for the transistors) building larger models, but was (again, as for the transistors) making them also more efficient, more portable. That said, we're not in a slowing of the curve of developement, we're fastening, expecially with the chinese models. The free lunch is getting bigger, not ending, still.

Re: Fable and the end of the free lunch

#194
post #182
post #172

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As long as these models constantly keep switching up things like the temperatures at which a steak will be medium rare or at which temperature to season cast iron, you will never be able to trust them for cooking. My mother ruined a nice waterfowl for Christmas by listening to Gemini. And this is inherent to how LLMs work.

Not if you let your LLM grounds its truth in established facts. Otherwise they would be useless for programming for example.

I don't understand what this means. I use LLMs daily for my work in programming things, and they regularly will assert things that are not accurate.

Re: Fable and the end of the free lunch

#195
post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If they could be cheap+fast and not try to do too much, that's a good spot for me. I don't use the smarter models as much because of cost and because they're still not good enough to let loose on a lot of problems. For assistance I prefer something that can very quickly spit out a specific piece I can review on the spot and keep going. I let smarter models handle things that I treat as external dependencies and don't…

I have a similar process - its just a pair programmer most of the time. I dont understand how people can have a fleet of agents working a bunch of waterfall specs..

I more have an agent that I drive to create features, and then a fleet of agents that turn those ad-hoc implementations into refined, integrated code.

Re: Fable and the end of the free lunch

#196

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Computers were never good at math. They were good at pre-coded algebra. When LLMs started to get popular, they really were stochastic parrots. I was fully aware that they were completely useless (except perhaps for poets) until they can do math. And I was a bit skeptical that they will ever be able to do math. But they started to do math and recently they got really good at it. Math is the pinnacle of human achieveme…

Moravec's paradox begs to differ. Things that are hard to humans are easy. Things that are easy to humans are hard. Math is incredibly hard to humans, but "proving a conjecture" might have a lower intrinsic complexity than "putting together a good joke". It's just that evolution has only ever optimized for one of those things. Math can easily end up being one of those things that are less "hard" than they are "hard i…

> but "proving a conjecture" might have a lower intrinsic complexity than "putting together a good joke"

Might earwax be soon worth more than gold? Experts say: No! What? No.

> "Pre-coded algebra" was thought to require a lot of intelligence too - until someone found a way to make simple logic gates perform addition, multiplication and division.

No. Not intelligence. Diligence. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Computer_(occupation) They didn't hire the smartest to do the calculations. They hired the diligent and cheap. They hired the smartest to do math.

Things that are easy for humans are easy because we have fist sized universal approximator in our skulls, that's just fast enough to keep most of us on two feet, architecturally optimized for very few activities (mostly physical, some virtualized) and trained for years. It doesn't mean things we do are complex.

As for Moravec's paradox ... Guidance system of a missile is not super smart or solving complex problems. It's just brutally optimized for the task and has a fitting form factor. Tasks that are easy for it are hard or impossible for my windows computer and vice versa. Paradox comes from stupidly thinking easyhard is one dimensional axis. That kind of thinking is something people are very prone to ... goodevil, healthysick, youngold ... while if we go a bit beyond the simplest narratives we can plainly see that everything is a multidimensional landscape. Just because we chose to draw a single line through it, in a semi-random direction we feel is about right, doesn't mean it is relevant for solving anything or even interesting. That's where a lot of paradoxes come from. We just strayed from reality too far and simplified or abstracted something too much.

> But judging intrinsic complexity of a task by whether humans find it hard is the most treacherous thing -

I think we can get a good hang of estimating how hard a thing is. If a thing is hard for a human it's probably pretty hard. We made some of them easy building machines that exceeded human strength and diligence. Now we built first one that exceed human intelligence. On one hand, it's as big as invention of a lever, steam machine or a computer. On the other hand it might be only roughly as important as those things.

... If a thing is easy for human it still might be hard because of hardware optimizations that humans have. Walking on two legs, seems easy. Walking on two arms. Much harder. But truly they are one and the same thing for a robot. So you might easily estimate that walking is not that easy. It's just when it comes to legs humans have a specialized controller, like a missile guidance system. Putting together a good joke? Might seem easy, maybe it's not that easy because humor plays a role in reproductions so we might have some optimization for it, but it's surely not harder than putting together quantum theory. You can see this from whatever the ideas version of cyclomatic complexity is. Some math theories have higher complexity than quantum theory. So a system that's capable of exploring multidimensional landscape of mathematic language, surely has raw capability of doing everything else humans can do with language. And it will once we direct it towards it correctly.

> "you can't do anything harder with your intelligence than math". This kind of statement has an awful track record.

I don't agree it has. And I stand by it.

Re: Fable and the end of the free lunch

#197
post #182
post #172

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As long as these models constantly keep switching up things like the temperatures at which a steak will be medium rare or at which temperature to season cast iron, you will never be able to trust them for cooking. My mother ruined a nice waterfowl for Christmas by listening to Gemini. And this is inherent to how LLMs work.

Not if you let your LLM grounds its truth in established facts. Otherwise they would be useless for programming for example.

So why isn't this the default mode then?

Re: Fable and the end of the free lunch

#199
post #2

The real revolution is Deepseek v4 flash and similar models (GPT 5.6 Luna, muse spark 1.2, mimo, etc...) - Genuinely good performance for a tiny fraction of the cost of Fable and even GLM etc... I think a lot of people would be very content if they never got smarter, and just kept getting even cheaper/faster. Of course, both things continue to happen on a seemingly monthly basis

But they don't really have that option. They're trapped in a Red Queen's race.

The world keeps moving on, and so the models need to be retrained so that they can keep up with new information. Otherwise you'll get stuck with a model that only works well with information that existed prior to a dataset horizon that's receding into the past at a constant rate.

At the same time, they have to keep iterating on the training process itself. AI generated text and code is slowly spreading across the internet. Model collapse is a real concern; they wouldn't be spending quite so much energy on buying and scanning rare books if it weren't. But for coding in particular expanding their corpus of old text is not really a good option because of the previous problem - no good training your LLM to write 1980 vintage K&R C that won't even compile on a modern compiler.

Re: Fable and the end of the free lunch

#200
I find it somewhat funny that the author starts by talking about how Moore's law enabled inefficient software and that we then had to make it more efficient, when almost all software today is horrendously inefficient compared to even 10 years ago, let alone 20-30. We've somehow even achieved a state where it doesn't matter how fast your CPU and memory are, the software will just perform horribly on any machine.
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