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The shingles vaccine may reduce the risk of dementia

economist.com

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Re: The shingles vaccine may reduce the risk of dementia

#191

Post by sarchertech »

hereme888 wrote: post #183
sarchertech wrote: post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As far as I know you're overstating what is known. There was a study that showed that people who had severe influenza (they were hospitalized) were 3 times more likely to develop dementia. And there are mouse models that show that frequency respiratory virus infections can increase may contribute to brain aging (in mice). >someone who worked in daycare and often got sick with the flu or similar, has a higher risk of…

I'm extrapolating some. But pediatricians have higher rates of dementia compared to their counterparts (physicians have lower dementia in general): https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s40520-019-01278-4

You’re taking a mouse study, and a study that says that people hospitalized with influenza are more likely to get dementia, and stating confidently that daycare workers are more likely to get dementia.

That’s not “extrapolating some.” That’s just making stuff up.

The study you cited is from Taiwan and merely states that “Physicians who were older, specialized in pediatrics and worked at local hospitals and clinics had a higher prevalence for dementia than their counterparts did.”

“physicians who are older are more likely to have dementia”

But beyond that, pediatricians or doctors who work in hospitals or clinics covers most doctors who aren’t work from home radiologists.

Re: The shingles vaccine may reduce the risk of dementia

#192

Post by hereme888 »

sarchertech wrote: post #191
hereme888 wrote: post #183

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm extrapolating some. But pediatricians have higher rates of dementia compared to their counterparts (physicians have lower dementia in general): https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s40520-019-01278-4

You’re taking a mouse study, and a study that says that people hospitalized with influenza are more likely to get dementia, and stating confidently that daycare workers are more likely to get dementia. That’s not “extrapolating some.” That’s just making stuff up. The study you cited is from Taiwan and merely states that “Physicians who were older, specialized in pediatrics and worked at local hospitals and clinics ha…

Wrong. Physicians (which includes pediatricians), who are in general less likely to get dementia, experience its signs at an older age in general due to protective effects of their high education. Among physicians, pediatricians seemed to have higher rates.

The discussion is very low-yield though, since infections are already a minor point re: dementia, and none of the evidence is conclusive.

Re: The shingles vaccine may reduce the risk of dementia

#193

Post by pseudohadamard »

gdudeman wrote: post #163

If you haven't seen the chart from the UK study, I highly recommend checking it out: https://erictopol.substack.com/p/the-shingles-vaccine-and-re... When the vaccine came out in the UK, they included a hard age cutoff: Above a certain age, you weren't eligible. Below that age, you were eligible. They looked at the probability of a dementia diagnosis over the 7 years after the vaccine was introduced. People who were b…

It's not even dementia, it's shingles itself. Two friends of mine had shingles in the last year or two, one of whom has a pain threshold at a level where I'm not entirely sure he's human ("I pulled the flesh back and you could see the bare bone, it was interesting, I've never seen my insides like that before"). After hearing their description of the pain levels involved I got a shot the next week.

My older neighbour also had it a few years ago, but in her case wasn't aware it was shingles, just some rash on her face. Doctors said if they hadn't stopped it within the next few days she'd have lost her sight.

Get the shot. You probably won't need it, but if you do then you'll really need it.

Re: The shingles vaccine may reduce the risk of dementia

#194

Post by reenorap »

warshinder wrote: post #164
gdudeman wrote: post #160

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This really isn't the case in the Shingles vaccine unless the UK study is flawed a way that isn't clear to me. The study looked at the effect of being eligible for a vaccine and the results were clear. (see chart below the fold here: https://erictopol.substack.com/p/the-shingles-vaccine-and-re... ) There was a hard age cutoff in the UK study. Above a certain age, you weren't eligible. Below it, you were. People who w…

Right. And RCTs not showing things than can be seen in larger observational studies seems plausibly related to the problems with RCTs, for instance statistical power being generally lower because n sizes are lower, attrition is an issue, etc… I want to believe the research though, especially since I like most smart people are going to get the Shingrix shot anyway.

It’s the opposite. Observational studies are very biased by the selection process and the only way to get signal from them is rct.

Re: The shingles vaccine may reduce the risk of dementia

#195

Post by Scoundreller »

atleastoptimal wrote: post #184
gdudeman wrote: post #163

If you haven't seen the chart from the UK study, I highly recommend checking it out: https://erictopol.substack.com/p/the-shingles-vaccine-and-re... When the vaccine came out in the UK, they included a hard age cutoff: Above a certain age, you weren't eligible. Below that age, you were eligible. They looked at the probability of a dementia diagnosis over the 7 years after the vaccine was introduced. People who were b…

So much of neurodegeneration has turned out to be the effects of latent viruses in the body. HSV-1 is correlated with developing dementia along with many respiratory viruses.

I can’t wait to see what happens when we have an Epstein-Barr virus vaccine.

Re: The shingles vaccine may reduce the risk of dementia

#196

Post by reenorap »

gdudeman wrote: post #160
reenorap wrote: post #115

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This finding of shingles and dementia is likely due to “healthy vaccinee” bias as per the link someone else posted below: https://youtu.be/qlTnnQytOJ0?is=XJ0c5pWVV6Lg0IMs As per one of the slides around 7 minutes in, there are many vaccines that show a 20-40% reduction in mortality and dementia. The talk above basically says that “observational studies” may show great results, like the so-called protective action of…

This really isn't the case in the Shingles vaccine unless the UK study is flawed a way that isn't clear to me. The study looked at the effect of being eligible for a vaccine and the results were clear. (see chart below the fold here: https://erictopol.substack.com/p/the-shingles-vaccine-and-re... ) There was a hard age cutoff in the UK study. Above a certain age, you weren't eligible. Below it, you were. People who w…

The video explains why the analysis is wrong and gives a very clear graph of how when you look at the proper data, there’s no benefit from the shingles vaccine for dementia. The signal is clear as day.

FWIW Eric Topol is an extremely unreliable source. He has “fame” but most of his stories end up being wrong because of his poor analysis like the review above. I subscribed to him during the pandemic when he migrated to substack but ended my subscription after countless bad articles.

Re: The shingles vaccine may reduce the risk of dementia

#197

Post by saghm »

tptacek wrote: post #50
dymk wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The article says that one possible reason the vaccine protects against dementia is incidental protection from other diseases. Getting chickenpox as a kid might protect you against shingles, but maybe not against those other diseases.

No! The opposite thing is true. Getting chickenpox as a kid drastically increases your likelihood of getting shingles as an adult. The initial chickenpox infection is the mechanism by which you're set up for shingles: you get it, fight it back, and it remains dormant in your nerves. Shingles is not simply chickenpox; it's the secondary infection you get from a resurgent zoster outbreak based in your nerves. Don't get…

I got chickenpox and shingles as a kid. I was young enough to not remember the chicken pox (which I I think I got from one of my older siblings), and then in second grade I got the shingles, which I had never even heard of at the time. As a late millennial (of parents who were not antivax by any means) I imagine if I were even a few years younger I probably would have gotten the chickenpox vaccine and been able to skip both.

Re: The shingles vaccine may reduce the risk of dementia

#198

Post by Scoundreller »

jeffbee wrote: post #138
pstuart wrote: post #136

I got shingles in my early 50s and did not know there were antivirals that could help mitigate its effects. I now have postherpetic neuralgia and the pain is not quite enough to off myself but the fact that I have to live with this for the rest of my life weighs me down. It turns out that "pain management" is more art than science and almost all the pharma options out there come with significant risks and concerns. I…

The antiviral treatments for shingles are not very practical in that by the time you decide to visit the doctor it may already be too late for them to work.

That’s why pharmacies are allowed to give them out directly here for shingles (Ontario Canada and possibly other provinces)

Re: The shingles vaccine may reduce the risk of dementia

#199

Post by chasil »

duk3luk3 wrote: post #190
chasil wrote: post #169

Earlier quoted context omitted.

From a legal perspective, if the injection does not provide 100% immunity (when used as directed), then it cannot be called a vaccine, instead it is a therapeutic treatment. Because courts of law have recognized covid mRNA injections as therapeutic treatments, they cannot be mandated.

That sounds like nonsense. Most vaccines do not provide 100% immunity.

Not to the union, it's not.

'The plaintiffs alleged that the vaccines do not prevent someone from becoming infected with COVID-19 and characterized it as a treatment rather than a “traditional vaccine.”'

https://calmatters.org/education/2024/06/covid-vaccine-manda...

Re: The shingles vaccine may reduce the risk of dementia

#200

Post by qnleigh »

gdudeman wrote: post #163

If you haven't seen the chart from the UK study, I highly recommend checking it out: https://erictopol.substack.com/p/the-shingles-vaccine-and-re... When the vaccine came out in the UK, they included a hard age cutoff: Above a certain age, you weren't eligible. Below that age, you were eligible. They looked at the probability of a dementia diagnosis over the 7 years after the vaccine was introduced. People who were b…

Why on earth wouldn't you need to look at the P value? You give good arguments for the soundness is the methodology, but you still need to look at the results and their statistical significance.

Their P value is 0.02, which is good but certainly not definitive. Also the effect is kind of small, 3.5% reduction in diagnoses.

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