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Confidential submission of draft S-1 to the SEC

openai.com

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Re: Confidential submission of draft S-1 to the SEC

#191

Post by mmcwilliams »

base698 wrote: post #187
gekoxyz wrote: post #176

Earlier quoted context omitted.

While I agree on the smell I think that the situations are really different. I am not an economist but I think that other than the situation of the huge amount of money in play we are in a really different case. The general user (and I have noticed it especially with today's WWDC) basically doesn't get any benefit from AI (neither LLMs, image generation or photo editing). They were promised living like in Wall-e in 5…

My father in law owns a small manufacturing business and is not technical at all. His computer skills stop with some CAD and basic excel. He pays for ChatGPT as does his wife and her kids. The internet and dot com bubble didn't have millions and millions of non technical users paying cash for a product. Almost every coffee shop I go to has people talking about AI and ChatGPT even in areas with no tech populations. I…

This seems to ignore the fact that millions of non-technical people did pay cash for a product: AOL. And in fact the AOL buyout of Time Warner coincided almost exactly with burst of the dot com boom.

Re: Confidential submission of draft S-1 to the SEC

#192

Post by jrmg »

base698 wrote: post #187
gekoxyz wrote: post #176

Earlier quoted context omitted.

While I agree on the smell I think that the situations are really different. I am not an economist but I think that other than the situation of the huge amount of money in play we are in a really different case. The general user (and I have noticed it especially with today's WWDC) basically doesn't get any benefit from AI (neither LLMs, image generation or photo editing). They were promised living like in Wall-e in 5…

My father in law owns a small manufacturing business and is not technical at all. His computer skills stop with some CAD and basic excel. He pays for ChatGPT as does his wife and her kids. The internet and dot com bubble didn't have millions and millions of non technical users paying cash for a product. Almost every coffee shop I go to has people talking about AI and ChatGPT even in areas with no tech populations. I…

The internet and dot com bubble didn't have millions and millions of non technical users paying cash for a product

The dot com bubble was basically based on regular people buying computers and internet service, and then using them to buy products they used to buy in stores.

Re: Confidential submission of draft S-1 to the SEC

#193

Post by asadotzler »

philipallstar wrote: post #69
lokar wrote: post #65

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And to give women full agency over their own lives

No one has full agency over their life. The men who generally work harder, longer, and for more of their lives, that are shorter as a result, don't have fully agency. Having a boss isn't agency.

Women couldn't have bank accounts, in my lifetime.

Re: Confidential submission of draft S-1 to the SEC

#194

Post by Eufrat »

charcircuit wrote: post #183
gekoxyz wrote: post #176

Earlier quoted context omitted.

While I agree on the smell I think that the situations are really different. I am not an economist but I think that other than the situation of the huge amount of money in play we are in a really different case. The general user (and I have noticed it especially with today's WWDC) basically doesn't get any benefit from AI (neither LLMs, image generation or photo editing). They were promised living like in Wall-e in 5…

There is ton of utility. I use it all the time to study, to look up what's happening in the world, to understand the context behind what others are saying, cooking recipes, and much more. Considering LLMs have access to tools for searching the internet they have a superset of the capabilities of Google and consumers got a lot of value from Google. In fact from putting ads on the search results Google has made billion…

When you ask it to give you a digest of current events or as a study aid how are you ensuring that what your reading is a valid representation of the source material? Has it never given you false information?

Re: Confidential submission of draft S-1 to the SEC

#195

Post by awwaiid »

ai-x wrote: post #186
to11mtm wrote: post #163

The timing of all of these IPOs has a smell similar to both the US Mortgage company trend shortly before interest rates spiked and all those companies started shedding jobs progressively since, and/or the DotCom IPO boom. Where we land remains to be seen.

The content of all these comments has a smell similar to 2023 when NVDA had a spectacular run and HN was absolutely sure that AI is a bubble. It's also similar to 2024 when HN was sure that AI is a bubble. Similar to 2025 when HN commentators were sure that AI is a bubble. 1000% gains later, HN will continue to identify patterns of 2000/2008 and are absolutely convinced it is a bubble Note: If a company gains 1000% a…

Yes, many companies going out of business altogether, some of them large, is what a bubble pop would look like. As opposed to a uh.... Correction.

Re: Confidential submission of draft S-1 to the SEC

#197

Post by bleepblap »

redox99 wrote: post #173
bleepblap wrote: post #151

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What I don't understand is how it's even a good low-margin business. Maybe I'm missing something but: Data centers (before recently) are low margin businesses because all the inputs are commodities: you buy power (joules), power (PDU), cooling hardware, physical racks, etc.. from the same vendors as everyone else. Worse, your biggest potential clients have the scale to just build it on their own and cut you out becau…

It's like buying a ticket for a concert, realizing you can't go and that you can resell it for more than what you paid. You're right that long term it should stabilize into a low margin business. Elon is also much less risk averse than others, which helps to build stuff fast, possibly cheaper, pushing legality to the limit. Colossus was definitely built much faster than anything else. I think building datacenters sui…

The concert analogy makes sense (I analogized it as "staunching the bleeding").

WRT SpaceX building data centers: I think there's a natural tension between a "low margin business" and "being risk adverse". SpaceX (the rocket business) did well because it was high risk and high reward. Building a 10b datacenter to hope to get a slice of a low-margin industry is high risk and low reward and just seems fundamentally like a losing strategy.

Re: Confidential submission of draft S-1 to the SEC

#198

Post by BudaDude »

toufka wrote: post #196

How much did Apple (via Google (via xAI (via SpaceX))) just crush their product? Seems an awful lot like Apple will commoditize the models that power Siri, and just “sherlocked” a trillion dollar private company.

If you think Apple just sherlocked OpenAI, you havn't been paying attention to the pivot OpenAI has been doing for the last 7 months

Re: Confidential submission of draft S-1 to the SEC

#199

Post by Groxx »

dwa3592 wrote: post #158
chakintosh wrote: post #97

I have a feeling that as soon as OpenAI and Anthropic stocks are up for grabs, the market will implode.

implode as in? to the moon or crash into bits and pieces?

Implode generally implies shrinking/collapsing, so while explode is kinda ambiguous, I think this is fairly clearly saying "bubble will pop".

Re: Confidential submission of draft S-1 to the SEC

#200

Post by paustint »

mgraczyk wrote: post #135
SwellJoe wrote: post #117

The cheap money for subsidizing tokens has begun to run out. Not all gone, yet, but it's getting harder to pretend the chatbots are cost-effective to run. Soon, they're going to need to tap a larger pool for money: Everyone's retirement accounts.

The numbers are public now, this is obviously false

If SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic get fast tracked to be on NASDAQ or S&P 500 then they are required to be included in index funds which will be automatically included in retirement accounts and that will give investors an exit.

https://youtu.be/yhRjvX_t4hc?si=N-a-s_5ttWKfVeJZ

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