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US inflation jumps to 3.8% as energy costs surge from Iran war

bbc.com

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Re: US inflation jumps to 3.8% as energy costs surge from Iran war

#191

Post by jmward01 »

khriss wrote: post #32

I can't think of a single way in which the United States came out ahead in the war. We have * Demonstrated that the US simply can't offer any meaningful security guarantee to it's middle east partners. * Permanently ceded de facto control over the straits of Hormuz to Iran * Significantly strengthened the hardliners in the Iranian regime and cleared the way for them to have absolute power by eliminating all moderates…

Short, medium and long-term this will spur the world to move off of fossil fuels. I'm not a fan of war, especially this stupid one, but that one benefit may be, unintentionally, worth it.

Re: US inflation jumps to 3.8% as energy costs surge from Iran war

#192

Post by deepsun »

mgfist wrote: post #162
khriss wrote: post #32

I can't think of a single way in which the United States came out ahead in the war. We have * Demonstrated that the US simply can't offer any meaningful security guarantee to it's middle east partners. * Permanently ceded de facto control over the straits of Hormuz to Iran * Significantly strengthened the hardliners in the Iranian regime and cleared the way for them to have absolute power by eliminating all moderates…

> I can't think of a single way in which the United States came out ahead in the war. I wouldn't jump to conclusions yet. The war is not over. I wouldn't even be so sure as to say Iran is in a good place right now. Iran can absorb more pain than the US, but even that has a deadline. For the US, the only pain is inflation, which is more a matter of political capital than anything tangible. Trump is a lame duck preside…

And if Iran drops or threatens just a single nuke, I doubt there will be left any arguments.

Re: US inflation jumps to 3.8% as energy costs surge from Iran war

#193

Post by jvanderbot »

armada651 wrote: post #12
jvanderbot wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There was a time when USA guaranteed the safe passage of shipping, which helped secure a peaceful world order, apparently. I view this as a continuation of that legacy, but admit I only have 1-2 books supporting this view.

How is closing the strait a continuation of a legacy of guaranteed safe passage?

I wasn't aware USA closed the stait

Re: US inflation jumps to 3.8% as energy costs surge from Iran war

#194

Post by runako »

ryeats wrote: post #167
runako wrote: post #103

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> long history of more wars from both parties Which wars were started by Democratic presidents in the last half-century?

Syria, Libya, Kosovo probably more I am just naming the ones off the top of my head.

"started by" here was used to indicate that there was not already a shooting war in progress.

Re: US inflation jumps to 3.8% as energy costs surge from Iran war

#195

Post by AntiUSAbah »

b40d-48b2-979e wrote: post #154
irishcoffee wrote: post #129

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When you are inject 3-5 trillion dollars into the economy over the span of months, it takes a while for reality to catch up.

idk, I read an analysis recently that retail investors in funds like the S&P500 are breaking how the stock market is "supposed" to work since people keep pumping the same money every month for retirement into the same 500 companies (or whatever an index is funding) without consequence to their actions, so they're never punished. Line goes up. The purchasing power of the masses outweighs the old brokerage class that d…

Probably very true, very simplified.

The best strategy then would be to know when the retirement fund money stops doing this due to age pyramid collapse i would assume.

Re: US inflation jumps to 3.8% as energy costs surge from Iran war

#196

Post by JeremyNT »

bparsons wrote: post #88

Frankly, it is a miracle that inflation is this low. Markets have not fully metabolized the impact from the closure of the Persian Gulf.

I keep thinking this but... line keep going up.

I've seen reporting that energy prices won't return to pre-war levels this calendar year, even assuming an immediate return to the status quo basically right now (which seems unlikely).

I find the whole thing really confusing. The facts I can see with my own eyes suggest high inflation and this surely means no substantial rate cuts (which... the market has expected) if not reduced consumer spending and risk of recessions.

But the markets think everything is... fine? So... what are we missing here?

Re: US inflation jumps to 3.8% as energy costs surge from Iran war

#197

Post by toasty228 »

legitster wrote: post #104

BTW, the conflict is unlikely to resolve soon. The US has literally never honored a deal with Iran. Iran has no reason to negotiate with the US. The US either has to back down, put boots on the ground, or sit and wait. If the government survives, they had a quiet infrastructure investment from China they can activate to rebuild their damaged facilities.

> The US has literally never honored a deal with Iran.

It'll be better now, they killed the dad/wife/son/etc. of their new leader, this will 100% make them eager to negociate in good terms

Re: US inflation jumps to 3.8% as energy costs surge from Iran war

#199

Post by neogodless »

philipnee wrote: post #83

this is core inflation no? it's interesting that it doesn't account for food and energy. so likely much higher in reality...

https://apnews.com/article/us-inflation-consumer-iran-war-3f...

Consumer Price Index (CPI) vs Core CPI

The above link is a little dumb because their own graph only goes up to March. But it looks like in March Core CPI was 2.6% while CPI was 3.3%.

Still, the details are in the text:

> Excluding volatile food and energy costs, so-called consumer core prices rose 0.4% last month from March and 2.8% from April 2025

Re: US inflation jumps to 3.8% as energy costs surge from Iran war

#200

Post by throwworhtthrow »

billfor wrote: post #143
khriss wrote: post #32

I can't think of a single way in which the United States came out ahead in the war. We have * Demonstrated that the US simply can't offer any meaningful security guarantee to it's middle east partners. * Permanently ceded de facto control over the straits of Hormuz to Iran * Significantly strengthened the hardliners in the Iranian regime and cleared the way for them to have absolute power by eliminating all moderates…

[flagged]

> all they have to do is

US IC assessment is Iran is 5-10y away from delivery tech, and there's no imminent threat.

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