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Grand Theft Oil Futures: Insider traders keep making a killing at our expense

paulkrugman.substack.com

191–200 of 367 posts

Re: Grand Theft Oil Futures: Insider traders keep making a killing at our expense

#191
post #136

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To be fair, you could also be a real world user of a commodity and productively use futures markets. For example, an airline or trucking company using them to hedge fuel prices.

Sure, and increasingly those people are being played for suckers. The article makes that point.

Less so than those buying it for spot? They need oil one way or another, whether from a future contract or the spot market (or downstream thereof).

Re: Grand Theft Oil Futures: Insider traders keep making a killing at our expense

#192
The scary thing for me is that in the US, the President and by extension the DoJ has a lot of power to override any legal protections that exist in most countries. In the UK, the Prime Minister or the Home Office cannot ring up any of the enforcement agencies and tell them to drop a corruption case - the law is supposed to apply to everyone.

In the US, for some reason, if you are a danger to the President's friends, you can be fired/your department can just be shutdown executively and this isn't just about Trump, it is about a serious weakness in the systems of governance.

Re: Grand Theft Oil Futures: Insider traders keep making a killing at our expense

#193
post #53

What if it's not insider trading and in fact the Trump inner circle has been compromised and foreign actors are trading on the news? You might think they wouldn't want to expose themselves just to make some money on oil futures, but at this point, they are bringing in billions.

Apply Occam's Razor to your statement and try again.

Re: Grand Theft Oil Futures: Insider traders keep making a killing at our expense

#194

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Or, more specifically, by 2020 he was sending military boats to attack Iranian targets and trying to force Russia to respond. He only stopped because of COVID.

If it were that obvious we would have specifically heard it it predicted. Maybe someone did but I didn’t hear it, and I listen to politics daily. Expressing a desire to take Greenland but not actually doing so was a move out of his book Art of the Deal.

What exactly do you want people (who exactly?) to have predicted that they didn't?

Re: Grand Theft Oil Futures: Insider traders keep making a killing at our expense

#195

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The article displays a laughably out of date view of futures markets, too There are people and institutions, such as oil producers, who will need to sell oil at a future date. They want to lock in the price today on those future sales. There are also people and institutions, such as airlines, who have a future need for oil and would like to lock in the price today. Airlines haven’t hedged fuel in a long time and gene…

Airlines are absolutely still hedging fuel: https://www.aerotime.aero/articles/airline-fuel-hedging-iran...

Southwest was famously killing it during the oil shocks of the 1990s and 2000s because they had the foresight to buy futures when spot prices were low. See https://southwest50.com/our-stories/the-southwest-jet-fuel-h... - I used to joke that Southwest was a futures trader disguised as an airline.

Unfortunately they ditched the strategy last year, claiming the costs were no longer worth the benefits: https://www.wsj.com/articles/why-southwest-airlines-finally-... and http://www.wsj.com/articles/airlines-pull-back-on-hedging-fu...

I bet they’re regretting that decision now.

Re: Grand Theft Oil Futures: Insider traders keep making a killing at our expense

#196
post #109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ah, so you were just trying to force the "set aside corruption" framing. Other than that, Mrs. Lincoln, how was the play?

>Ah, so you were just trying to force the "set aside corruption" framing. Again, if you read the TFA, the entire thesis is that the insider trading is extra bad beyond corruption. The corruption itself only gets a passing mention.

Nope. TFA does not adopt the extremely narrow focus you are trying to force. Nice try.

Re: Grand Theft Oil Futures: Insider traders keep making a killing at our expense

#197
post #73
post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The war must continue in order to bring us to the status quo that was in place before we started the war. I hope that everyone responsible for this is enjoying every cent of what they get to pay at the pumps.

[flagged]

Every time this gets repeated without a shred of evidence I have to think of the "beheaded babies" thing. "Feel better about the crimes against humanity you see us doing and bragging about by reading this spam email from a Nigerian prince once again, this time with even more pomp and even less details, even less pretense of actually caring or being honest."

Re: Grand Theft Oil Futures: Insider traders keep making a killing at our expense

#199

Welcome to the world of commodity trading. There is no SEC here, and this is business as usual. You can look at T&S to see this for yourself, but this is (like it or not) how this typically goes in commodity markets.

Does the SEC even matter anymore with the current administration?

Re: Grand Theft Oil Futures: Insider traders keep making a killing at our expense

#200

If you are trading in the futures market and you don't have inside info or are not an actual supplier of the commodity, you are the sucker.

That logic would also extend to individual stocks, wouldn’t it?

If you consider 'trading' to be short term buying and selling of stocks, then yeah. Holding stocks long term is nothing like trading commodities though.
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