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The Old Guard: Confronting America's Gerontocratic Crisis

harpers.org

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Re: The Old Guard: Confronting America's Gerontocratic Crisis

#191
post #61

> Our gerontocracy is not the result of a malevolent plan, .. Boomers aren't distinctively evil.. The fact that they are so numerous and the fact that they are aging in era when life has been extended make the syndrome endemic. .. America faces a gerontocratic crisis of succession on the scale of society itself. The melodrama of succession—­waiting for the old to make way for the new—­defines not only our politics bu…

Sounds dramatic, but what are we talking about here? Are you planning to work through democratic processes or do you mean revolution?

> Sounds dramatic, but what are we talking about here?

How about this? https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/4633773-eat-the-boomers-...

> In his book, “A Generation of Sociopaths: How the Baby Boomers Betrayed America,” Bruce Gibney argued that “generational plunder” was their economic legacy. Through tax cuts and deficit financing of several wars, the Boomers left America in shock. “Plunder” is a strong word. In the corporate legal world, it is enough to justify a clawback of the plunderers’ assets.

IMHO if we don't use it to settle the debt, it won't be inherited by people anyway, it will simply be deleted during end-of-life care, where the oldest boomers pay the youngest boomers that are still in charge of whatever insane private-equity healthcare mess we land on, thus making the "greatest generational transfer of wealth" directly to the 1%.

Re: The Old Guard: Confronting America's Gerontocratic Crisis

#192
post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you work for 40 years, chances are you will have accumulated some assets. I'm not sure that "sell your house and cars to pay for food" is a policy that will be popular. Equally those same people have paid taxes for 40 years, paid into social security (to the benefit of their elders) and so on. Keeping them in the work-force is largely undesirable. A job occupied by a 70 year old is a job not occupied by someone yo…

>... If retirement age was say 80 instead of 60, there would be 25% fewer jobs to go around. (using imprecise simple math). Economists refer to this idea as the lump of labour fallacy. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lump_of_labour_fallacy

If economists believe it, it must be true:).

More seriously though, it's not as simple as 25% fewer jobs, or an economy that grows 25%. For example the number of elected positions is pretty fixed, and all those octogenarians in the senate are certainly blocking younger talent.

Politics may be an extreme example, but lots of other jobs are "proportional". There's a fixed number of plumbing jobs (per million head of population) so adding 25% more plumbers dilutes the plumbing pool. A boon in construction would drive up the demand for plumbers, but construction booms come and go.

The "economy" is (again simplistically) a measure of money flow. It doesn't really measure "production" as much as it measures "cash velocity". As such having a retired tranche spending all day long is a good thing.

And yes, more labor would lead to a growing economy. But a lot of that growth is in "poor quality" jobs (aka service level jobs) not "new production".

In other words the economy "grows" if money changes hands quickly. The standard of living though is more tied to "production".

Take, for example, health care. The sector can grow 25% by adding more admin staff, claims evaluators etc. None of which results in better health outcomes. Or it can grow by building hospitals, training doctors and nurses. Both increase the economy, both offer more jobs, but only one leads to a higher standard of health.

In truth the current economy is built around the customers free time. From music, movies and tv, to sports, travel, phones, social media, online advertising and sales, deliveries (of goods or people), restaurants (fast or slow), home improvement, it's all about monetizing free time.

Having a large customer base with nothing but free time is what makes it all work.

Re: The Old Guard: Confronting America's Gerontocratic Crisis

#193

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> They paid for Old Age Insurance, and they reached old age, so they get to collect. That's just it: they're not old. Not in the way a 65-year-old was old in the 1930s. If they had to farm, mine, log, or work in a factory, yeah, they'd be too old to work. That was most of the work available when OASDI was created, and that's what it's for: to keep you from becoming destitute as an elderly person when there is no abil…

So why did we make them pay Social Security taxes for the entirety of their 40-year careers? They could've invested the money at a better return than Treasury bills and had way more liquid assets.

Why do you pay insurance for anything? So the funds are there if you need them.

The goal is not to maximize return, it's to guarantee a check that keeps you from being destitute. That's it. That's the whole point. Not limitless growth, not a nice bit of sugar from Uncle Sam every month to supplement millions of dollars in assets. To keep you from being dying in the street as an elderly person.

If we're going to call the current abuse of OASDI a legitimate use of insurance, then I want to be able to get my home protection policy company to help me out on a down payment for a house. I've paid in, after all. It's the least they can do.

Re: The Old Guard: Confronting America's Gerontocratic Crisis

#194
post #133

Earlier quoted context omitted.

by law, then by unrest, then by revolution.

By law is how we got to where we currently are. There's no reason to think that would change. You'd have to trick all the people who are old (plus all the people who realize they will get old too) to vote away their assets, income, and power. Unrest will just harden the people who see your cause as unjust against it. That will be a strong majority of people, so will go no where. Revolution seems highly unlikely to su…

So, what exactly do you think will happen? Nothing? You've ruled out every other alternative.

Re: The Old Guard: Confronting America's Gerontocratic Crisis

#195

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Go look at the demographics of the last election and then tell me which groups shouldn't be allowed to vote.

[flagged]

> My observation living in an area that has a mix of 70+ WASPs and younger black and hispanic people is that the WASPs are the ones who are by far the most incensed by Trump. They don't just dislike his policies. They hate the way he talks.

A lot of minorities in America like the tough on crime talk because they're often the ones most affected by it.

Re: The Old Guard: Confronting America's Gerontocratic Crisis

#196
post #181

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> They paid for Old Age Insurance, and they reached old age, so they get to collect. That's just it: they're not old. Not in the way a 65-year-old was old in the 1930s. If they had to farm, mine, log, or work in a factory, yeah, they'd be too old to work. That was most of the work available when OASDI was created, and that's what it's for: to keep you from becoming destitute as an elderly person when there is no abil…

Bollocks. We complain because jobs are being occupied by the oldsters, and now you want them to stay in their jobs even longer? If the couple you're pillorying is so wealthy, then most of their Social Security is being taxed, and they're paying higher Medicare premiums as well. And their house? As they get older and require nursing care, they'll end up liquidating it (or Medicaid will take it). The average retiree re…

> Bollocks. We complain because jobs are being occupied by the oldsters, and now you want them to stay in their jobs even longer?

I'd just tax it at 100% unless they declare bankruptcy. The US national debt skyrocketed during their lifetimes. Mathematically speaking, they did not pay enough in tax to support the spending that their duly-elected officials enacted. They also didn't, mathematically speaking, have enough children to make up the difference in future taxpayers, either. The American birth rate never recovered after 1970. Someone's got to pay off those bills, and if the numbers comparing the Boomers to Millennials at the same age say anything, they say "the Millennials will not have the money to pay off their parents' government debt."

Is that harsh? I don't know. I do know that your children's generation is supposed to have it better than you, and by pretty much every objective measure, the Boomers did not do that for their children, at least not economically. So it's time for them to put up.

> If the couple you're pillorying is so wealthy, then most of their Social Security is being taxed, and they're paying higher Medicare premiums as well. And their house? As they get older and require nursing care, they'll end up liquidating it (or Medicaid will take it).

Why should they be receiving Social Security at all? Same with Medicare. This is the demographic that has more collected wealth than any other age cohort. If they do, in fact, need government help, they can prove their need, like you have to with unemployment insurance or Medicaid.

> The average retiree receives around $25k per year in SS benefits. That's not a ton of money.

Then those who don't really need it won't miss it. Those who do will have a more sustainable program to support them.

Re: The Old Guard: Confronting America's Gerontocratic Crisis

#197

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So why did we make them pay Social Security taxes for the entirety of their 40-year careers? They could've invested the money at a better return than Treasury bills and had way more liquid assets.

Why do you pay insurance for anything? So the funds are there if you need them. The goal is not to maximize return, it's to guarantee a check that keeps you from being destitute. That's it. That's the whole point. Not limitless growth, not a nice bit of sugar from Uncle Sam every month to supplement millions of dollars in assets. To keep you from being dying in the street as an elderly person. If we're going to call…

> If we're going to call the current abuse of OASDI a legitimate use of insurance

It's called "insurance" but it isn't really insurance like your home insurance. It's a mandatory pension plan. Everyone who pays into a pension is entitled to get it. It may well be a bad plan with a bad implementation. But those are the rules nonetheless.

If Social Security wasn't universal I guarantee voters would've gotten rid of it a long time ago. Then nobody would have it - neither the rich nor the poor.

Re: The Old Guard: Confronting America's Gerontocratic Crisis

#198
post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sounds dramatic, but what are we talking about here? Are you planning to work through democratic processes or do you mean revolution?

> Sounds dramatic, but what are we talking about here? How about this? https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/4633773-eat-the-boomers-... > In his book, “A Generation of Sociopaths: How the Baby Boomers Betrayed America,” Bruce Gibney argued that “generational plunder” was their economic legacy. Through tax cuts and deficit financing of several wars, the Boomers left America in shock. “Plunder” is a strong word. In the…

That article is calling for an additional estate tax. That's sounds reasonable to me.

But you seem to be talking about taking the retirement savings and homes of people who are using them to live.

You find different numbers in different places, but the median retirement savings for boomers is under $200,000. That's a lot of money, but it needs to last ~15 years or so, years where they're likely to have reduced or no capacity to work.

A lot of old people have paid-off houses, which is a major asset. You could take those (e.g., by taxing them out), but then where do the old people on a small, fixed income live?

The attitude seems to be, "to hell with them, who cares?"

But I think a lot of people care: the old people themselves, of course. The people who love them. And everyone self-aware enough to realize they too hope to become old.

Re: The Old Guard: Confronting America's Gerontocratic Crisis

#199

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People are paid according to the value they produce - equity has nothing to do with it.

This is painfully naive. People are paid by the value they produce minus the maximum extraction ownership can get.

> the maximum extraction ownership can get

And people demand the maximum pay they can get. It's the Law of Supply and Demand.

Consider this. You hire Bob for $10/hr, and he produces $100/hr in value. What's going to happen? Your competitor hires him away from for $20/hr. Then another competitor hires Bob away for $30/hr. This proceeds until Bob gets paid about $85/hr. The ROI of hiring Bob is somewhere around 15%.

There's a good reason why the vast bulk of the American workforce is paid much more than minimum wage.

Re: The Old Guard: Confronting America's Gerontocratic Crisis

#200
post #187

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is painfully naive. People are paid by the value they produce minus the maximum extraction ownership can get.

A milder version would be: People are paid based on the marginal cost of replacing them. But still, either of those is a far cry from claiming it's "the value they create". It's not hard to show either. Imagine you're on an island and have been gored in the stomach by a wild animal, and a skilled surgeon can save your life. Most people would instantly agree that continued existence is of immense "value". However afte…

The value of something is what the buyer is willing to pay for it and the seller is willing to sell at.

There is no other meaningful definition of the value of an item or service.

> either of those is a far cry from claiming it's "the value they create".

Nobody is going to hire someone who produces less value than their pay.

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