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Anthropic takes $5B from Amazon and pledges $100B in cloud spending in return

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Re: Anthropic takes $5B from Amazon and pledges $100B in cloud spending in return

#191

Post by intothemild »

danieldoesbio wrote: post #151
rvz wrote: post #134

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Open models are promising and cost a fraction of what they proprietary models cost which the big two are vulnerable to when companies start to feel the cost of tokens. Anthropic are scared of open weight models and need to fear-monger towards you to continue paying for their models. That's the whole point of their 'safety' marketing narrative, account bans, and Dario being the AI scarecrow scaremongering everyone a…

Genuine question here about the open-weight models finding the same vulnerabilities as mythos thing: is it just a matter of false negatives/positives? I’ve seen a few cases where people show other models (even opus) can find the same vulnerabilities given many passes. Is there some disadvantage to the extra passes that give the claimed Mythos performance extra value (assuming it finds them in less)?

The thing is, mythos found those with multiple passes, thousands of passes... So using thousands of passes or perhaps the same budgets, yes, cheaper open weight models could potentially (and have) found the same/similar vulnerabilities.

Mythos screams of marketing hype, and nothing more. Opus 4.7 isn't really a meaningful upgrade in any sense, other than being more expensive.

Once you can see what something like Qwen3.6-35B-A3B can do... with just a FRACTION of the size of the larger models, You'll understand that the future is open weight models you can run yourself.

Same goes for companies, bringing inference onsite isn't hard, I'm actively building tooling to orchestrate it.

Re: Anthropic takes $5B from Amazon and pledges $100B in cloud spending in return

#192

Post by YetAnotherNick »

dec0dedab0de wrote: post #146
amluto wrote: post #112

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Other than data sovereignty, does the data center location really matter that much? Current inference systems are not exactly low latency.

Location matters for disaster recovery, if they want to survive WWIII. Though I think Data Sovereignty is probably a bigger thing, especially if they're going to be selling to governments around the world.

Why do they need to sell to government around the world. I mean I highly doubt Europe governemnt is in the top 100 customer of any US lab.

Re: Anthropic takes $5B from Amazon and pledges $100B in cloud spending in return

#193

Post by postalrat »

sandworm101 wrote: post #163
twoodfin wrote: post #150

Earlier quoted context omitted.

From the limited perspective of software development, today’s models are well-worth their per-token cost. This reads to me like Anthropic anticipating demand and making a commitment to acquire supply. Not unlike airlines committing to future jet fuel purchases, or Apple committing to future DRAM volume.

But that per-token cost is a total joke. All these companies are fighting to build market share in some future dominated by one or two AI ecosystems. It is musical chairs until someone creates the one ring to rule them all. So they are charging token amounts just to claim revenue as they burn through investor dollars. In short: per-token charges currently cover maybe 1% of the total costs in this field. To pay ongoin…

In a decade the cost of compute will be a tiny fraction of what it costs now. Specialized hardware will exist that will be cheap and efficient.

Re: Anthropic takes $5B from Amazon and pledges $100B in cloud spending in return

#194

Post by nielsole »

SlinkyOnStairs wrote: post #177
RealityVoid wrote: post #168

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, that is probably one of the worst cases they probably saw. Most likely the subscription inference cost is much lower than you expect. If you look at costs for similar open models they are much lower than what you get by buying from anthropic, so that is the real cost basis I expect. It's likely Amazon is making a fucking killing though.

While $5000 is a lot, the people who rack up close or just over a thousand "API equivalent cost" are pretty common. > Most likely the subscription inference cost is much lower than you expect. This is probably not true because they'd be screaming it off every rooftop were that the case. Same deal with the API inference. Even the "profitable on inference" claim is sourced back to hearsay of informal statements made by…

I don't know about SEC rules but the anthropic CEO said they have a 50%+ margin on API pricing.

Re: Anthropic takes $5B from Amazon and pledges $100B in cloud spending in return

#195

Post by PunchyHamster »

pohl wrote: post #152
electroly wrote: post #121

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For AI inference you don't need to geographically distribute your data centers. Latency, throughput, and routes don't matter here. When it's 10 seconds for the first token and then a 1KB/sec streamed response, whatever is fine. You can serve Australia from the US and it'll barely matter. You can find a spot far outside populated areas with cheap power, available water, and friendly leadership, then put all of your da…

Sounds like you're betting that the performance users experience today will be the same as the performance they'll expect tomorrow. I wouldn't take that bet.

You can build geographically close one tomorrow, when you start earning money today. US-EU latency is like 100ms, AI can handle it just fine

Re: Anthropic takes $5B from Amazon and pledges $100B in cloud spending in return

#196

Post by matrik »

sandworm101 wrote: post #163
twoodfin wrote: post #150

Earlier quoted context omitted.

From the limited perspective of software development, today’s models are well-worth their per-token cost. This reads to me like Anthropic anticipating demand and making a commitment to acquire supply. Not unlike airlines committing to future jet fuel purchases, or Apple committing to future DRAM volume.

But that per-token cost is a total joke. All these companies are fighting to build market share in some future dominated by one or two AI ecosystems. It is musical chairs until someone creates the one ring to rule them all. So they are charging token amounts just to claim revenue as they burn through investor dollars. In short: per-token charges currently cover maybe 1% of the total costs in this field. To pay ongoin…

I'm not sure this information is grounded, but I remember to have read somewhere the inference is indeed profitable. My personal experience is similar. Running 2x3090s draw 500-600W and you can locally run amazing models with a similar setup.

Re: Anthropic takes $5B from Amazon and pledges $100B in cloud spending in return

#197

Post by rhubarbtree »

lokar wrote: post #49
ForrestN wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think this "Mythos" situation, whether real or hype, points to the endgame here. Eventually, when you have a model powerful enough to have big consequences in the world, you stop worrying about selling it to consumers and start either a) using it to rule the world or b) watch as it gets nationalized. If you have a machine powerful enough to automate everything, why sell access to it when you could just...be all thi…

I disagree. The point of the mythos hype is to get regulation to cut off competitors.

I disagree. The point of the mythos hype is to bump the IPO.

Re: Anthropic takes $5B from Amazon and pledges $100B in cloud spending in return

#198

Post by gowld »

giancarlostoro wrote: post #182
Argonaut998 wrote: post #131

Does anyone feel that the jig is almost up? Surely the returns aren’t anywhere close to what investors expect with the sheer amount of cash at this point in time. Are Anthropic and OpenAI rushing to IPO for immediate cash so they can delay the inevitable? Surely this cycle of robbing Peter to pay Paul to pay John to pay Tim must end. We are only just now getting a taste of the “true cost” of these tokens. Then there…

> Surely this cycle of robbing Peter to pay Paul to pay John to pay Tim must end. I think a LOT of companies really never needed to be on the public market, and its a darn shame that so many go on the stock market, we have this obnoxious culture where you have to fire tons of people if you have a bad quarter just to show you're stopping the bleeding. Companies literally fire and hire x number of people every quarter…

> we have this obnoxious culture where you choose to fire tons of people if you have a bad quarter just to show you're stopping the bleeding

Fixed your error.

Re: Anthropic takes $5B from Amazon and pledges $100B in cloud spending in return

#199

Post by xdennis »

loveparade wrote: post #29
iot_devs wrote: post #7

Someone can explain to me what's the expectations for these AI labs? I mostly see their products as commodity at this point, with strong open source contenders. Eventually it will become hard to justify the premium on these models.

I give it one to two more years before open source models have fully caught up. Products are commodities and models are commodities too. GPUs cores are still hard to get for inference at scale right now. They need a platform with lock in but unsure what that would look like and why it wouldn't be based on open source models.

Why do people have such faith in "open source" models? There's nothing "open source" about them. No individuals have the ability to train such modules. They are just released by companies to commoditize the models of the competition.

If Mythos is the endgame, companies won't release open-weight equivalents, and no private individuals have the capital to train such models.

Re: Anthropic takes $5B from Amazon and pledges $100B in cloud spending in return

#200

Post by giancarlostoro »

gowld wrote: post #198
giancarlostoro wrote: post #182

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Surely this cycle of robbing Peter to pay Paul to pay John to pay Tim must end. I think a LOT of companies really never needed to be on the public market, and its a darn shame that so many go on the stock market, we have this obnoxious culture where you have to fire tons of people if you have a bad quarter just to show you're stopping the bleeding. Companies literally fire and hire x number of people every quarter…

> we have this obnoxious culture where you choose to fire tons of people if you have a bad quarter just to show you're stopping the bleeding Fixed your error.

They choose to do so because they've lost money in a bad quarter, which might not be the case on the next quarter, its ridiculous. I would rather invest in a market where my investment is long term based, and you aren't just firing people to make numbers work. To these people its all about make the numbers work for investors, they don't care about anything else because of the way that market works. You can offramp your investment on a whim, which is ridiculous and volatile at times. Personally I would prefer more companies go private. Some companies probably wouldn't exist without the public market, like some social media companies, and maybe that's okay if they did not...

Let companies fail, but also lets make investing smarter.

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