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Traders placed over $1B in perfectly timed bets on the Iran war

theguardian.com

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Re: Traders placed over $1B in perfectly timed bets on the Iran war

#191

Post by direwolf20 »

Tade0 wrote: post #139
slg wrote: post #117

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>The oil trade structure actually does make sense, because this is how you buy oil, or really any commodity that takes so much space and weight. You order it ahead of time, then if you hold till the contract settles you are allowed to pick it up from the place and in the way designated in the contract specification. In fact you are obliged to pick it up, that's why prices can go negative in exceptional situations. Pr…

Airlines in particular prefer to have a predictable price of fuel, whatever it might be, so they buy futures.

[dead]

Re: Traders placed over $1B in perfectly timed bets on the Iran war

#192

Post by jaredklewis »

lostlogin wrote: post #172
jaredklewis wrote: post #134

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The current setup does sort of seem like a tax on being stupid. Why would any non-insider participate in these markets? You’re just asking to get screwed. Though it’s not that different from the stock market, where the folks at WSB happily give their money to Citadel, Jane Street, and friends, because every once a while, one of them hits it big after going all in that the ball lands on green. Gambling is a hell of a…

> The current setup does sort of seem like a tax on being stupid. More like a tax on being ethical or having any morality.

What is unethical?

The good point of prediction markets is that they provide information. This information is available to everyone, for free, which benefits everyone.

Insiders help achieve this. Insiders have information and by participating in the market they then expose and share that information. So this is good. If we ban insiders, we're just banning accurate information from getting into the market. If we do that, we might as well just ban prediction markets altogether. I don't have a strong opinion either way on that, but a prediction market without insiders is pointless.

Re: Traders placed over $1B in perfectly timed bets on the Iran war

#193

Post by hereme888 »

egonschiele wrote: post #113
hereme888 wrote: post #93

Good for those who made the money. I would have done so had I had such insider info, as long as it didn't compromise any operation.

Do you not think that that would have a negative impact on the world? or do you not care, or is this "the world is going to hell so I may as well get mine"?

It's an unregulated world of gambling. Like trading DogeCoin. If you had insider knowledge, it was/is legal to trade there as you want.

Re: Traders placed over $1B in perfectly timed bets on the Iran war

#194

Post by easterncalculus »

slg wrote: post #100

Say whatever you want about the merits of prediction markets. But I just don't see a way those benefits outweigh the societal dangers of these constant reminders that people in or close to power can freely profit from their positions in the ways the rest of the population can't. There's always talk about the dangers of disincentivizing job creators, but what happens when a society routinely disincentives job havers i…

> That's not healthy on an individual level or cumulatively at a societal level.

This is a product of a secular neoliberal culture (certainly including this website) that there is no 'society', really, or at least nothing that's BAD for society - effectively the same thing. If profit is king above all else, there's nothing wrong with vice, with scams, anything to chase the bag. It used to be that neoliberals understood community, but even suggesting that the health of society exists is considered reactionary now.

Re: Traders placed over $1B in perfectly timed bets on the Iran war

#195

Post by airstrike »

austhrow743 wrote: post #182
airstrike wrote: post #123

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Say whatever you want about the merits of prediction markets Go on, I'll wait for those "merits"

More accurate information about the world allows for more effective decision making.

If people are insider trading so blatantly, there's no "more accurate information" here until it's too late and it's already news. You're just getting scammed

Re: Traders placed over $1B in perfectly timed bets on the Iran war

#196

Post by egonschiele »

hereme888 wrote: post #193
egonschiele wrote: post #113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you not think that that would have a negative impact on the world? or do you not care, or is this "the world is going to hell so I may as well get mine"?

It's an unregulated world of gambling. Like trading DogeCoin. If you had insider knowledge, it was/is legal to trade there as you want.

Ah okay, so it's a case of "it's legal so it's fine", and impact or principles don't come into it.

Re: Traders placed over $1B in perfectly timed bets on the Iran war

#197

Post by 93po »

elAhmo wrote: post #106

It’s not perfectly timed bets, it’s called insider trading. Just one more thing this administration has brought into mainstream.

Gambling is a state regulation and Trump has absolutely nothing to do with it other than indirectly through supreme court appointments, but even the 2018 ruling that gave more power to states included votes by two democrat appointed justices - so if you're going to blame trump you also need to blame clinton and obama

Re: Traders placed over $1B in perfectly timed bets on the Iran war

#198

Post by heywoods »

I think it’s fair to say the trajectory of all of this leads to bad actors creating the events and making decisions on policy that guarantees outcomes that they have conveniently made bets on. https://www.copingwithfootnotes.com/p/the-commodification-of...

Re: Traders placed over $1B in perfectly timed bets on the Iran war

#199

Post by stouset »

nojito wrote: post #187
jaredklewis wrote: post #134

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The current setup does sort of seem like a tax on being stupid. Why would any non-insider participate in these markets? You’re just asking to get screwed. Though it’s not that different from the stock market, where the folks at WSB happily give their money to Citadel, Jane Street, and friends, because every once a while, one of them hits it big after going all in that the ball lands on green. Gambling is a hell of a…

>Why would any non-insider participate in these markets? Because they are grossly mis-priced for anyone mildly informed.

If this were the case, deeper and more informed pockets than yours would take the opposing position until there’s no more alpha to be had.

Re: Traders placed over $1B in perfectly timed bets on the Iran war

#200

Post by stouset »

direwolf20 wrote: post #189
jaredklewis wrote: post #134

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The current setup does sort of seem like a tax on being stupid. Why would any non-insider participate in these markets? You’re just asking to get screwed. Though it’s not that different from the stock market, where the folks at WSB happily give their money to Citadel, Jane Street, and friends, because every once a while, one of them hits it big after going all in that the ball lands on green. Gambling is a hell of a…

> Why would any non-insider participate in these markets? You’re just asking to get screwed. If people who do the obvious trades (sell oil right now - it's going down) lose money, all you have to do is do the opposite (buy oil right now - it's going down) and gain money. Is it not that simple? You will profit along with the insiders when Trump blockades the strait again, although you won't have such perfect timing.

Mind explaining to the class how you know how to make the same bet as the insiders without actually having insider information?
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