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The tech jobs bust is real. Don't blame AI (yet)

economist.com

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Re: The tech jobs bust is real. Don't blame AI (yet)

#191

Post by roryirvine »

ghaff wrote: post #178
matheusmoreira wrote: post #147

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Where did they go?

I'm sure you'll find a variety of answers. Often mid-management jobs in possibly tangentially related industries. Basically retired early, or pursued a hobby business, if they could afford to do so. In my case an industry analyst job for about ten years until I went back to marketing for a software company.

And lots of people early in their careers never got another job at the same level again.

One sysadmin I worked with ended up as a taxi driver. A core network engineer eventually retrained as a school lab technician. Two devs both spent a decade doing tech support at a call centre before bouncing out of tech altogether.

Things started picking up again around 2005-6, but for a couple of years there was nothing. Much, much worse than the Great Financial Crisis or anything that's happened since.

Re: The tech jobs bust is real. Don't blame AI (yet)

#192

Post by MeetingsBrowser »

bootsmann wrote: post #169
MeetingsBrowser wrote: post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Job postings are not jobs. A company can layoff 10k and post jobs for 1k and have job postings be up. Projections are useless. The past does not predict the future. BLS is useless for the same reason, amplified.

Maybe if you’re at the point where you dismiss three datapoints that all disagree with your thesis without any real argument you should rethink your thesis.

I don’t dismiss them because I disagree, but because they measure something tangential to the point.

There is data on average software salaries and job counts.

Salaries have not grown since 2021. Inflation is high in the same time period, meaning pay is substantially down over the last five years.

Actual jobs are harder to measure but various sources all show swings of +\-5% each year.

Salaries are down 10%, and best case scenario jobs are up 5% in that same time frame.

Re: The tech jobs bust is real. Don't blame AI (yet)

#193

Post by pandaman »

abenga wrote: post #173
yabutlivnWoods wrote: post #159

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Oh this game, huh? If your powers of analysis were worth anything you would be running the world not copy-pasting hype straight from CNBC and Big Tech PR As you are not running the world your analysis is worthless. As such I say; good day, sir.

Why is it important that Google (or any of these large companies) only hire Americans for their jobs in the first place? They are global companies now, they make money from everywhere. Why is the insular "Americans only" idea worthy of consideration at all?

The law forces American corporations to hire Americans, various work visas are exceptions from the law given under certain conditions. It appears the companies are abusing these exceptions and violate these conditions. There is no such thing as a "global company" in the law, with the exception of foreign consulates all the entities that hire people in the US are American corporations.

Re: The tech jobs bust is real. Don't blame AI (yet)

#194

Post by yabutlivnWoods »

abenga wrote: post #173
yabutlivnWoods wrote: post #159

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Oh this game, huh? If your powers of analysis were worth anything you would be running the world not copy-pasting hype straight from CNBC and Big Tech PR As you are not running the world your analysis is worthless. As such I say; good day, sir.

Why is it important that Google (or any of these large companies) only hire Americans for their jobs in the first place? They are global companies now, they make money from everywhere. Why is the insular "Americans only" idea worthy of consideration at all?

Humans were motivated to discover physical truth, invent technology before Google existed.

"Why is it important Google exists?" is a more interesting question.

Re: The tech jobs bust is real. Don't blame AI (yet)

#195

Post by lateforwork »

munksbeer wrote: post #183
shimman wrote: post #181

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, because blue collar immigrants aren't working for cartels that hold deeply undemocratic views.

It is interesting to see the different views on immigration. Here in the UK, leading up to the brexit vote, everyone said blue collar workers were the problem, because they depressed wages for the poor and made the middle class richer because they could build cheaper houses, pick cheaper crops, etc. In Singapore, the rage is mostly against higher earner immigrants, because they take all the good jobs, making the midd…

> people just hate immigration, always have, always will

"We have always been a nation of immigrants who hate the newer immigrants." -- Jon Stewart, The Daily Show

Really it is not immigration people hate, it is having to compete for food.

Re: The tech jobs bust is real. Don't blame AI (yet)

#196

Post by joquarky »

slg wrote: post #51
bookofjoe wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'd happily provide one but I've had enough of being repeatedly trashed and denigrated here for posting too many archive links.

It is interesting that sites like HN have existed for decades and still don't have any real solution for this sort of problem. Is providing a way for us to all bypass paying for this content that cost money to produce actually the most desirable outcome? Like imagine if there was some 90 minute tech documentary on Netflix that was worth discussing here. Could I just rip it and link to a copy on my Google Drive? How l…

The whole founding principle for our kafkaesque copyright system is "To promote the Progress of Science and useful Arts"

Thanks to Disney and others, we have drifted far from that. If you make the rules too complicated and/or rigid, people will stop following them.

Re: The tech jobs bust is real. Don't blame AI (yet)

#197

Post by joquarky »

Uhhrrr wrote: post #47
bookofjoe wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'd happily provide one but I've had enough of being repeatedly trashed and denigrated here for posting too many archive links.

I have only ever gotten thanks and net positive points for posting archive links.

In my observation, copyright maximalists tend to be parasites and they get very upset when you even suggest that their products should eventually become part of the commons.

Re: The tech jobs bust is real. Don't blame AI (yet)

#198

Post by ghaff »

roryirvine wrote: post #191
ghaff wrote: post #178

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm sure you'll find a variety of answers. Often mid-management jobs in possibly tangentially related industries. Basically retired early, or pursued a hobby business, if they could afford to do so. In my case an industry analyst job for about ten years until I went back to marketing for a software company.

And lots of people early in their careers never got another job at the same level again. One sysadmin I worked with ended up as a taxi driver. A core network engineer eventually retrained as a school lab technician. Two devs both spent a decade doing tech support at a call centre before bouncing out of tech altogether. Things started picking up again around 2005-6, but for a couple of years there was nothing . Much,…

Yeah. I was lucky enough to connect with someone I knew in a tech job--albeit one that wasn't that great paying especially after a pay-cut at the worst of the downturn.

It eventually translated into a very good end of career job but a lot of people ended up in "would you like fries with that?" positions. I had luck but it was by no means guaranteed.

Re: The tech jobs bust is real. Don't blame AI (yet)

#199

Post by ghaff »

roryirvine wrote: post #191
ghaff wrote: post #178

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm sure you'll find a variety of answers. Often mid-management jobs in possibly tangentially related industries. Basically retired early, or pursued a hobby business, if they could afford to do so. In my case an industry analyst job for about ten years until I went back to marketing for a software company.

And lots of people early in their careers never got another job at the same level again. One sysadmin I worked with ended up as a taxi driver. A core network engineer eventually retrained as a school lab technician. Two devs both spent a decade doing tech support at a call centre before bouncing out of tech altogether. Things started picking up again around 2005-6, but for a couple of years there was nothing . Much,…

I won't disagree. A lot of people got marginal jobs--maybe associated with the industry or maybe not. I was luck enough to have a network but I knew plenty of people who just faded away.

Re: The tech jobs bust is real. Don't blame AI (yet)

#200

Post by pojzon »

throwaway422432 wrote: post #132
mikert89 wrote: post #70

Two big tech FAANG jobs, org is 95% h1b engineers from china/india. Tons of resumes from american grads somehow never hit my desk, continue to interview random candidates from india with some low quality USA masters from missisipi state. Candidate has spent the last year locked in a room memorizing algorithm interview questions

I think the issue could also be this: - Tech or engineering company hires foreign resident engineer. - That engineer works their way up in the company to a position where they are in control of hiring. - They hire more people like them. We used to accuse start-ups for hiring for cultural fit (people like them) which looked like sexism and ageism. Same thing, different group.

One rabin says “preference” another says “discrimination”.

At this point everyone should know “cultural fit” is synonymous to “preference”/“discrimination”.

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