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Good ideas do not need lots of lies in order to gain public acceptance (2008)

blog.danieldavies.com

191–200 of 228 posts

Re: Good ideas do not need lots of lies in order to gain public acceptance (2008)

#191

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Those are arguments, not math. Will you share your actual math?

Okay, for even a very basic EV I'd be paying £400 per month. This is more than the £200-300 or so it costs to run my existing car. Straight off, it's costing me more just to even own one - that's before it turns a wheel. Tax on an EV is free just now, and about £300ish a year for the vehicle I have now, so that's got the difference down a little. Insurance on even a fairly basic EV would be a couple of hundred quid a…

Thank you, this makes sense out of the gate, and I appreciate you sharing!

I'm not seeing you calculate any repair costs for your vehicle. Or depreciation overall, especially not replacement. What year do you expect to replace your vehicle? What would you replace it with? How much would you get for trading in your vehicle if you buy a new car now?

I think you're missing pretty large parts of the math - what happens if you take your likely depreciation/replacement costs into account over time?

Re: Good ideas do not need lots of lies in order to gain public acceptance (2008)

#192

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> among people who like me can charge at home OP said this, you clearly don't fall into this category. And if servicing an electric car costs more than servicing an old Landrover I will not eat for a week

At the dealer it costs about £300 to get a Kia Niro EV serviced, which needs done every year. It just cost me £75 to service my car, of which nearly £15 was just the cabin air filters which have got bizarrely expensive since last year.

That sounds like a charge the dealer has made up to try to get you to spend money, not an actual need.

Re: Good ideas do not need lots of lies in order to gain public acceptance (2008)

#193

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The specific lie discussed was the idea that granting options was not somehow an "expense" and could be excluded from the accounts. Stock options for the company's own stock are kind of weird because the company can issue its own stock, which puts them in a much different position than someone selling uncovered calls. An uncovered call is a potentially unbounded liability. If you issued someone options to buy 10,00…

The IRS rules on AMT for that transaction might have you thinking it was generally booked. Though any sensible accounting seems like it wouldn’t book it.

We like to pretend we have rule of law, but every part of the government is inherently a political animal.

Old money deferring capital gains forever? No prob. Some nerds who built something but mostly don't have a sophisticated understanding of finance or an organized political machine? Haha screw those guys.

Re: Good ideas do not need lots of lies in order to gain public acceptance (2008)

#194
post #185
post #121

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Cops measure success by number of people they arrest. Simply not true. Police KPIs tend to focus on crime rates. Regardless, they can mistreat you with or without AI backing.

The elected officials like chiefs get judged on crime rates. Individual officers are on arrests and tickets (regardless of rules against quotas)

If we assume they are on quotas then what difference does technology make? They had quotas before the technology, qualified immunity too. 100 false arrests with no recourse are 100 false arrests with no recourse.

If anything I would expect technology favors the victim of false arrest because it gives the cop a face-saving get out. Previously, a cop who false-arrested you would have been incentivized to take it all the way, because you getting justice for it is intrinsically tied to impugning their word and/or reputation.

Re: Good ideas do not need lots of lies in order to gain public acceptance (2008)

#195
post #186
post #104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People who sell lottery tickets, on average, do better than those who buy them. The same applies to stock options. Which is why "bonus" options are fine, but "buying" them by taking ESOP over potential salary, can be a bad choice.

I think it depends on the ESOP, the companies i've worked at ESOP happened at 10-15% discount of the real price at the buy time and those stocks are instantly sellable. They can be taxed differently yeah but depending on how much you are buying and sell its capital gains tax which can be lower than income tax. Edit: I am conflating RSUs and stock options never worked somewhere without RSUs so there might be a gap in…

Options are a bit riskier than RSUs. If you have RSUs issued at $100 and the stock goes down to $50, then your RSUs are worth half. If you have the option to buy stock at $100 and the stock goes down to $50, then that option is worthless.

Re: Good ideas do not need lots of lies in order to gain public acceptance (2008)

#196

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> EV servicing is cheaper and I do it less often. Most EVs need serviced every year and it's about £300 to do so. This is a ridiculous amount.

What do you need to get serviced every year? Do the tires wear out that fast?

They need the oil and coolant changed apparently, or they won't warranty the battery.

Mine needs a set of tyres every few years, a set of brakes every few years, and an oil change or two a year. None of this is especially expensive.

Re: Good ideas do not need lots of lies in order to gain public acceptance (2008)

#197

Earlier quoted context omitted.

At the dealer it costs about £300 to get a Kia Niro EV serviced, which needs done every year. It just cost me £75 to service my car, of which nearly £15 was just the cabin air filters which have got bizarrely expensive since last year.

That sounds like a charge the dealer has made up to try to get you to spend money, not an actual need.

Why? Don't you think they need serviced or something?

Re: Good ideas do not need lots of lies in order to gain public acceptance (2008)

#198

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Those are arguments, not math. Will you share your actual math?

What would the math look like to make an EV cheaper than using an ICE car you already own? It looks an awful lot like you're just dodging the numbers yourself.

I would be happy to share the exact numbers I used to figure out replacing a 2017 Ford Fusion with a 2023 Tesla Model 3 would save me money. And it has.

When most people make these comparisons, they don't consider depreciation, trade-in value, or maintenance costs.

I don't understand what I was dodging though. Can you be really specific? Help me out.

Re: Good ideas do not need lots of lies in order to gain public acceptance (2008)

#199

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Would you be willing to share your math?

Okay, it immediately costs more to buy an EV than it does to run my existing car. The monthly payment to buy an EV is more than I spend on fuel. Then I'd be paying roughly ten times as much for insurance, because it's a new and valuable car, and being "keyless" it cannot be secured in any meaningful way without locking it in a garage, which I don't have. Because I don't have a garage or a driveway I can't park right…

> Because I don't have a garage or a driveway I can't park right at my house, so I would not be able to charge at home.

IMO, this matters more than anything else.

If you can't charge at home, then an EV becomes rather nonviable unless you drive very little and your usual grocery store has a fast charger. But then public chargers are typically at least double the price per kilowatt hour compared to charging at home.

Re: Good ideas do not need lots of lies in order to gain public acceptance (2008)

#200

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That sounds like a charge the dealer has made up to try to get you to spend money, not an actual need.

Why? Don't you think they need serviced or something?

I've owned my Tesla for 6 years and 50,000 miles.

The only service it's needed beyond tires, wiper blades, and wiper fluid is a replacement of the low-voltage battery last year, which was under $200.

If you're paying $300/year to service your EV, either you drive a LOT or you're getting ripped off. There's nothing in an EV that requires $300/year in service.

There's no oil changes, no transmission fluid. Brake pads will last forever since regen should be doing at least 90% of your braking. Sure, maybe you still need tire rotations, but most tire shops will do it for free if you buy tires from them. I do them myself when I do the swap between winter and summer tires.

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