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Bets on US-Iran ceasefire show signs of insider knowledge, say experts

theguardian.com

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Re: Bets on US-Iran ceasefire show signs of insider knowledge, say experts

#191

Post by delecti »

ragebol wrote: post #64
delecti wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They're orthogonal, so there's no barrier. They're all nefarious, and most are also incompetent.

Getting yourself installed as president while knowing you are incompetent (I mean, look at all those bankrupt businesses, he should know) is nefarious in itself. His entourage is nefarious for supporting the incompetency for their own gain.

One of the few conspiracy theories I kinda believe is that Trump's 2016 presidential run was a grift and he expected to lose.

Everything since has just been an inability to admit he was in over his head, plus trying to get out of trouble for all the crimes he did. He (and Clinton) just underestimated how susceptible the US was to a demagogue. If you look at his face after the win was announced on election night, and after the first meeting with Obama for the transition, I think it shows plainly on his face.

Re: Bets on US-Iran ceasefire show signs of insider knowledge, say experts

#192

Post by UncleMeat »

broof wrote: post #83

Isn’t one of the points of betting markets is to incentivize this? Now me, as someone who doesn’t have access to insider knowledge, can know that there’s a noticeably increased chance of what’s going to happen. I do think maybe there should be some sort of feature to prevent last minute bets that utilizes insider knowledge, and I do admit there are considerable negative externalities to this system but it’s not clear…

This was one of the theoretical points of betting markets.

But there are two large concrete betting markets now. And they advertise not as a "world state discovery system" but as a gambling platform for people to try their luck on. They are also large businesses that are making their owners rich. Falling back on "oh we are just interested in the intellectual exercise of information discovery" is not tenable at this point.

Re: Bets on US-Iran ceasefire show signs of insider knowledge, say experts

#193

Post by UncleMeat »

phil21 wrote: post #90
cj wrote: post #84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Isn’t one of the points of betting markets is to incentivize this? No. It’s an unintended side effect that risks breaking trust in the system by (the majority of) players who don’t have insider knowledge.

Eh what? It’s literally the only reason for prediction markets to exist. Otherwise they are simple gambling and pointless. The only way you get more wisdom from “the crowd” is if it teases folks who hold non-public (or at least less public) information into the market to refine the odds towards what they should be. Without insider information the entire concept is dead on arrival. Yes randos are gonna gamble because…

> Otherwise they are simple gambling and pointless.

People find gambling fun. Owners of gambling services make a lot of money. The prediction markets both run ads that present themselves as gambling products.

Both of these things are points that can sustain large businesses.

Re: Bets on US-Iran ceasefire show signs of insider knowledge, say experts

#194

Post by ragebol »

jerlam wrote: post #142
ragebol wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Getting yourself installed as president while knowing you are incompetent (I mean, look at all those bankrupt businesses, he should know) is nefarious in itself. His entourage is nefarious for supporting the incompetency for their own gain.

If people are giving you money, are you truly incompetent? I think we're using different scales to measure competency.

Competent enough to receive money, not competent enough to run a country well. But now we're getting into very subjective stuff, I'm sure his handlers are quite OK with what he's doing. It doesn't matter it all looks super suspicious, they are confident they won't face any consequences.

Re: Bets on US-Iran ceasefire show signs of insider knowledge, say experts

#195

Post by gos9 »

Tadpole9181 wrote: post #177
gos9 wrote: post #159

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You think polymarket is where this game is being played? For a couple hundred thousand dollars? Since when do profoundly stupid people use this site?

Rich folk would have a man gutted like a pig for a crisp $5 bill. They would absolutely (have their secretary) commit legal inside trader for a few hundred thousand on every occasion they could.

Your model of other people is profoundly broken and you should be stripped of your ability to use the internet

Re: Bets on US-Iran ceasefire show signs of insider knowledge, say experts

#196

Post by red-iron-pine »

delecti wrote: post #29
mikkupikku wrote: post #17

If the administration decides to end this stupid war just so they can cash out some profitable bets... I don't even know what I would think. The whole thing is so stupid it makes my head hurt.

I think the main reason is that they were all too incompetent to realize what the effects of the war would be on the global financial system. The bets were probably just a happy opportunity for corruption. > The whole thing is so stupid it makes my head hurt Look on the bright side, at least the malicious actors aren't able to competently implement their goals.

their goal is to tank the market, make fast stacks of $$$, and then buy up everything.

this isn't new, the techo-feudalism has been pretty clear since Thiel got his man (JD Vance) into the VP slot.

the Israelis also figure he's probably not gonna last through the mid-terms, so they want the US to do their dirty work while they still have leverage over him via Epstein files. Russia wants the US to get into a similar long-slog war, and is desperate for high oil prices.

Re: Bets on US-Iran ceasefire show signs of insider knowledge, say experts

#197

Post by red-iron-pine »

idle_zealot wrote: post #43
huijzer wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When do we cross the barrier from incompetent to nefarious?

It's not an either-or question; they're very transparently both nefarious and incompetent.

they are incompetent at running a successful government and maintaining hegemonic domination for western interests.

they're doing a fine job of screwing the world for their own gain, and/or working as sock puppets of foreign governments.

at no point was there ever a true belief, except for the "idjit" demographic, that trump would ever do anything meaningful in a governance sense.

Re: Bets on US-Iran ceasefire show signs of insider knowledge, say experts

#198

Post by red-iron-pine »

srean wrote: post #188
thrance wrote: post #186

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In the enlightened POTUS' own words (yes, he wrote in all caps): > I AM PLEASED TO REPORT THAT THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, AND THE COUNTRY OF IRAN, HAVE HAD, OVER THE LAST TWO DAYS, VERY GOOD AND PRODUCTIVE CONVERSATIONS REGARDING A COMPLETE AND TOTAL RESOLUTION OF OUR HOSTILITIES IN THE MIDDLE EAST. BASED ON THE TENOR AND TONE OF THESE IN DEPTH, DETAILED, AND CONSTRUCTIVE CONVERSATIONS, WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH…

I think one way to understand Trump is that he is a compulsive and successful gaslighter. Behaviorally, he is a very interesting case for psychologists. He should be in future textbooks as a case study.

he's a textbook narcissist and everyone has known that since well before he got elected the first time.

the "interesting case" is how he somehow managed to convince the average american that he has anything in common with them, even as he insulted everything they stand for, constantly. there is the real psychological case study.

Re: Bets on US-Iran ceasefire show signs of insider knowledge, say experts

#199

Post by red-iron-pine »

unethical_ban wrote: post #139
Aurornis wrote: post #120

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, due to the $220 million advertising spend scandal and her claims about it.

She should have been tied to a wooden post and shipped out of DC on an uncovered railcar for labelling a peaceful protester assassinated by ICE a "domestic terrorist". Her scandal was not being subtle enough with the theft of government funds for Trump's taste, and he found a way to get rid of her that he could claim he had no part in.

railcar? is that a metaphor?

she should be tried for corruption and manslaughter.

Re: Bets on US-Iran ceasefire show signs of insider knowledge, say experts

#200

Post by srean »

red-iron-pine wrote: post #198
srean wrote: post #188

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think one way to understand Trump is that he is a compulsive and successful gaslighter. Behaviorally, he is a very interesting case for psychologists. He should be in future textbooks as a case study.

he's a textbook narcissist and everyone has known that since well before he got elected the first time. the "interesting case" is how he somehow managed to convince the average american that he has anything in common with them, even as he insulted everything they stand for, constantly. there is the real psychological case study.

> how he somehow managed to convince the average american

Unless you have dealt with a narcissist in real life you don't really get to comprehend the reality of them and their methods. On the other hand, once you know, most of them are so transparent.

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