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Measuring progress toward AGI: A cognitive framework

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Re: Measuring progress toward AGI: A cognitive framework

#191

Post by jazz9k »

lich_king wrote: post #181
onlyrealcuzzo wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The amount of things LLMs can do is insane. It's interesting to me how much effort the AI companies (and bloggers) put into claiming they can do things they can't, when there's almost an unlimited list of things they actually can do.

Because most of these things are not multi-trillion-dollar ideas. "We found a way to make illustrators, copyeditors, and paralegals, and several dozen other professions, somewhat obsolete" in no way justifies the valuations of OpenAI or Nvidia.

Perhaps not. But I find myself using LLMs instead ofba search engine like Google.

This does have value.

Re: Measuring progress toward AGI: A cognitive framework

#192

Post by ianrahman »

Altruism would make a good addition to the list. It’s clearly not universal, but most humans would help a fellow human in need. Or even (and in some cases more so) an animal need. Even if it didn’t directly benefit the actor.

There are other changes and additions which could be made to this list, but altruism may be the most important.

Re: Measuring progress toward AGI: A cognitive framework

#193

Post by IAmGraydon »

jazz9k wrote: post #191
lich_king wrote: post #181

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because most of these things are not multi-trillion-dollar ideas. "We found a way to make illustrators, copyeditors, and paralegals, and several dozen other professions, somewhat obsolete" in no way justifies the valuations of OpenAI or Nvidia.

Perhaps not. But I find myself using LLMs instead ofba search engine like Google. This does have value.

To you, yes, but the compute to return that search costs them far more than a simple search query and on top of that it's hard to monetize.

Re: Measuring progress toward AGI: A cognitive framework

#194

Post by IAmGraydon »

lich_king wrote: post #181
onlyrealcuzzo wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The amount of things LLMs can do is insane. It's interesting to me how much effort the AI companies (and bloggers) put into claiming they can do things they can't, when there's almost an unlimited list of things they actually can do.

Because most of these things are not multi-trillion-dollar ideas. "We found a way to make illustrators, copyeditors, and paralegals, and several dozen other professions, somewhat obsolete" in no way justifies the valuations of OpenAI or Nvidia.

>Because most of these things are not multi-trillion-dollar ideas.

That's right, but there's more. When you think about the cost of compute and power for these LLM companies, they have no choice. It MUST be a multi-trillion-dollar idea or it's completely uninvestable. That's the only way they can sucker more and more money into this scheme.

Re: Measuring progress toward AGI: A cognitive framework

#195

Post by paxys »

mlmonkey wrote: post #120
imtringued wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This reminds me of "Devin". You know, the first "AI software engineer", which had the hype of the day but turned into a huge flop. They had ridiculous demos of Devin e.g. working as a freelancer and supposedly earning money from it.

It looks like the company (Cognition) is actively hiring (20+ job openings last I checked). That doesn't sound like a "flop" to me...

WeWork had 12,500 employees at its peak.

Re: Measuring progress toward AGI: A cognitive framework

#196

Post by mikestorrent »

SecretDreams wrote: post #162
onlyrealcuzzo wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The amount of things LLMs can do is insane. It's interesting to me how much effort the AI companies (and bloggers) put into claiming they can do things they can't, when there's almost an unlimited list of things they actually can do.

The hype has gotta keep going or the money will dry up. And hype can be quantified by velocity and acceleration, rather than distance. They need to keep the innovation accelerating, or the money stops. This is of course completely unreasonable, but also why the odd claims keep happening.

Why would the money dry up when we have companies willing to spend $1000/developer/month on AI tooling when they would have balked at $5/u/mo for some basic tooling 2-3 years ago?

Re: Measuring progress toward AGI: A cognitive framework

#197

Post by mikestorrent »

beeflet wrote: post #52
onlyrealcuzzo wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The amount of things LLMs can do is insane. It's interesting to me how much effort the AI companies (and bloggers) put into claiming they can do things they can't, when there's almost an unlimited list of things they actually can do.

And many of them so unexpected, given the unusual nature of their intellegence emerging from language prediction. They excel wherever you need to digest or produce massive amounts of text. They can synthesize some pretty impressive solutions from pre-existing stuff. Hell, I use it like a thesaurus to sus out words or phrases that are new or on the tip of my tounge. They have a great hold on the general corpus of info…

> some unexplored relationship between inteligence and compression.

I don't think it's unexplored at all, this is basically what information theory is all about. At some level, it becomes incompressible....

Re: Measuring progress toward AGI: A cognitive framework

#198

Post by gormen »

orangebread wrote: post #50

As an engineer who is also spiritual at the core, it seems obvious to me the missing piece: consciousness. Hear me out. I love AI and have been using it since ChatGPT 3.5. The obvious question when I first used it was "does this qualify as sentience?" The answer is less obvious. Over the next 3 years we saw EXPONENTIAL intelligence gains where intelligence has now become a commodity, yet we are still unable to determ…

I have this thought. In many stochastic environments, over a long interval, patterns emerge that occupy an optimal position. This is how structure arises, for example cognitive structure and possibly consciousness.

Re: Measuring progress toward AGI: A cognitive framework

#199

Post by gls2ro »

mikestorrent wrote: post #196
SecretDreams wrote: post #162

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The hype has gotta keep going or the money will dry up. And hype can be quantified by velocity and acceleration, rather than distance. They need to keep the innovation accelerating, or the money stops. This is of course completely unreasonable, but also why the odd claims keep happening.

Why would the money dry up when we have companies willing to spend $1000/developer/month on AI tooling when they would have balked at $5/u/mo for some basic tooling 2-3 years ago?

First in some cases it is more than $1000/dev/month.

Those companies spending 1000+/developer are doing it with the same hope that at some point those $1000/month will replace the developer salary per month. Or because by doing so more investors will put more money into them.

Take away the promise of AI replacing developers and see how much a company is willing to pay for LLMs. It is not zero as there are very good cases for coding assisted by LLM or agentic engineering.

Re: Measuring progress toward AGI: A cognitive framework

#200

Post by possibleworlds »

cheevly wrote: post #172
gtowey wrote: post #166

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Only because they have compressed and encoded the entire sum of human knowledge at their disposal. There are models for everything in there, but they can only do what has been done before. What's more amazing to me is the average human, only able to hold a relatively small body on knowledge in their mind, can generate things that are completely novel.

I hear this constantly. Can you produce something novel, right here, demonstrably, that an LLM couldnt have produced? Nobody ever can, but it’s sure easy to claim.

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