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What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

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Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#191

Post by indymike »

tomrod wrote: post #171
throw0101c wrote: post #157

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Calculation of unemployment […] Define "unemployment". There are six (U-1 to -6) ways of classification in the US: * https://www.bls.gov/lau/stalt.htm * https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/080415/true-... * https://www.investopedia.com/terms/u/unemployment.asp And the fact that they're different between the US and other countries, and between other countries and other-other countries is well recognized;…

Kudos to this point. For those not realizing that unemployment has several definitions - isn't it wonderful that all were published AND all are well-documented? It's these points of reliability and trustworthiness that, complexity aside, we are losing from chaotic administration.

I worked on a couple of projects with state workforce development agencies and federal agencies. I was always impressed with how much focus there was on the integrity of unemployment numbers, and especially with the emphasis on making sure methodologies ensure that data from the late 1800s can be compared against modern data.

Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#192

Post by overfeed »

CalRobert wrote: post #37
ambicapter wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Weird how all the American social media companies continue to try to operate in Europe in spit of the massive fines they keep on racking up in court. They can't help themselves, if there is money to be made they got to get in there.

Social media is a tool to shift public opinion and extract cash from the general populous. Claude, however, is actually useful.

The US government and software industry do not want Europe using Chinese AI for similar soft power reasons. A 1-billion strong market acclimating to Chinese *aaS is a net-loss for the US - see the panic about Canada allowing a few thousand Chinese cars

Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#193

Post by suzzer99 »

fn-mote wrote: post #190
suzzer99 wrote: post #178

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A hundred more preppers who aren't $100+ millionaires? Or a hundred more $100+ millionaires who aren't preppers?

(Joke) I thought it was obvious that it was referring to 100 people who are preppers who are not $100+ millionaires, but I looked at the profile of the GP and wasn't so sure. > karma: 178634 > about: Ski. Fly. Growth equity VC.

Yeah I think it might be the other way.

Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#195

Post by JumpCrisscross »

suzzer99 wrote: post #178
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #163

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> super rich have been in "prepper" mode for a long time now For every prepper in the $100+ million class, I know a hundred who are not. They’re enjoying their lives or working to make more money.

A hundred more preppers who aren't $100+ millionaires? Or a hundred more $100+ millionaires who aren't preppers?

> Or a hundred more $100+ millionaires who aren't preppers?

This.

I live in Wyoming and frequent the Bay Area, New York and some places in Europe and India. The rich preppers are rare. (And mostly techies or oil men.) It’s mostly a middle-class pursuit, the singler and older and maler the person, the more likely they own clothing in camo. If they’ve spent any time in a military or intelligence service, their “prepping” is basic emergency preparedness, not bunker lunacy. (Though one retired special ops guy who started military contracting kept a map of the bunkers. I think as a joke. The saying being a well-stocked bunker owned by an asshole is a good target for a group of guys with guns.)

At the end of the day, the rich preppers build bunkers because it gives them something interesting to talk about. That group is mostly chasing that high.

Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#196

Post by hackyhacky »

suzzer99 wrote: post #182
nine_k wrote: post #164

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The land of the free, and all that. America was a radical moral project when it was founded, as a republic (when monarchies dominated the world) with enshrined religious freedom (when state-enforced religions were the norm). The Civil War arguably had a large moral dimension, too.

* Does not apply to native Americans or slaves.

Or women. Or non-white immigrants. Or former slaves or their descendants. Etc etc

Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#197

Post by jgilias »

specproc wrote: post #102
looksjjhg wrote: post #7

It’s amazing and terrifying watching an empire die

I spent a fair bit of time in the former Soviet Union, what happened there is instructive for what comes next. I think we will see, across the West broadly, to varying extents: - peripheral states flipping (e.g., Baltics) - widespread looting of public assets, a new oligarchal class minted - total destruction of the middle class, particularly those with ties to government and NGOs (I'm in this camp and miserable for…

The situations are not comparable at all. That was the collapse of an authoritarian (wasn’t totalitarian anymore by the time it’d collapse) system running (badly) on command economy. Most of the points you mention are therefore just really off.

Say, the Baltics flipping. Where the hell are we supposed to flip to? Russia? Where ethnic minorities are sent to die in expansionist wars in disproportionate numbers?

Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#198

Post by Sam6late »

That will lead to serious problems, as in the case of China, underestimating threats lead to losing edge, from EV to robots and other vital tech, and without experts to ground policy in reality, the country risks making erratic market moves and failing to spot risks from adversaries like China or Russia.Add to that inexperienced staff in the administration who makes the U.S. easier to manipulate.

Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#199

Post by gigatexal »

mark_l_watson wrote: post #25

The phrase "when US data becomes unreliable" is misleading in one sense: for many years political manipulation of economic data has screwed things up. Calculation of unemployment and real debt has seldom matched the norms of most other western countries. Add military (often black budgets) spending without much oversight or accurate accounting. The wealthiest people in the USA are now in the mode of grabbing what they…

We’ve never doubted the BLS numbers before until this admin. Think about how that screws things.

Re: What happens when US economic data becomes unreliable

#200

Post by jeffbee »

svnt wrote: post #136
_heimdall wrote: post #112

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is tough, though, for me to fully buy labor statistics when it has become the norm recently for them to be revised down. This spans back into Biden's term as well so it isn't one party either. With a valid measure I would expect a roughly even distribution over time between underestimates and overestimates. For a valid measure worth considering I'd also expect the stat to be released later when revisions are less…

That is a reasonable position, however the assumption that it is the administration that is gaming them vs other motivated parties is open for discussion.

It is in fact not at all reasonable. They are saying that the BLS stats can't be trusted because they totally misunderstand the survey methodology. That isn't a reason!
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