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I'm glad the Anthropic fight is happening now

dwarkesh.com

191–200 of 237 posts

Re: I'm glad the Anthropic fight is happening now

#191

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> VCs on HN are still going to insist that We The Good Guys are the champions of freedom, equality, justice, all the good stuff that we don’t practice (but we have great ideas about) They might. I’m not. There is an analogy here to perfect being the enemy of good. Or, at the very least, the pragmatic better.

It’s the usual feigned comparison. America is a republic and if you don’t agree well, go to Reddit and argue about it; meanwhile China is just a dictatorship. American “crimes“ are dismissed with some rhetorical non-response like “hmmph, no one claimed we are perfect”, or immediately contrasted with some arbitrary Chinese “crime”, then dropped just as fast; even someone bringing up contemporary killing of Iranian sch…

> American “crimes“ are dismissed with some rhetorical non-response like “hmmph, no one claimed we are perfect”, or immediately contrasted with some arbitrary Chinese “crime”, then dropped just as fast

America debates and exhibits its faults, at least internally. The Tulsa Massacre is a movie and cultural discussion point in a way Tiananmen Square is not in China. Neither should have happened. And neither is universally acknowledged or atoned for. But if we’re debating which system AI should emulate, I know it’s not just the one that explicitly buries its faults.

> Judge my enemies by their actions. Judge me by my words

Judge both by both. The ability to have words about shameful actions is not meaningless.

Re: I'm glad the Anthropic fight is happening now

#192

Earlier quoted context omitted.

He was simply saying that the same actions China takes are repeatedly brought up, while those the US takes are forgotten after a while.

That is a charitable interpretation. I should follow your example.

It’s good that you are reflecting.

Re: I'm glad the Anthropic fight is happening now

#193
post #129

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s also just a category error. It’s like saying that 99% of farm workers are tractors or 99% of textile workers are looms.

Do you not think a change in knowledge work similar in scale to the industrialization of agriculture would be significant?

Why are you trying to change the meaning of their comment?

Re: I'm glad the Anthropic fight is happening now

#194

My attitude towards democracy has worsened since AI. The problem with democracy is that it can easily become a revolving door wherein capital holders can choose which candidates are allowed to approach the door. I think democracy works well when the monetary system is constrained; for example on gold or other scarce asset because that creates a better separation between money and state because then there would be les…

> The problem with democracy is that it can easily become a revolving door wherein capital holders can choose which candidates are allowed to approach the door.

I've reached similar conclusions about the problems with democracy but always struggle with any potential solutions. Looking at the the world, I don't see any viable alternative forms of government, just slight variations that still suffer from the same core problems but to a lesser degree

Re: I'm glad the Anthropic fight is happening now

#195

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If the past year has taught us anything, it’s that the US can’t really be seen as the “good guys” in such a simple way. More like the past 200 years. America have never been the "good guys", and it is only Americans who seem to think they ever were.

An American and a Soviet Russian were on a plane chatting. The American says "I'm very impressed with the quality of Soviet propaganda". The Soviet says thanks, but it's nothing compared to American propaganda. The American says "But we don't have propaganda", the Soviet says "Exactly".

And been written about since the 80s

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Manufacturing_Consent

Re: I'm glad the Anthropic fight is happening now

#196

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Changing permits sounds to me a lot easier than building anything in space. What has ever been built in space? The ISS, that's it. Alright, show me the back of the envelope maths.

> Changing permits sounds to me a lot easier than building anything in space Having done a little bit of both, the latter around data centers, I’ll say they’re different kinds of hard. > Alright, show me Fair question. But no, I’m still refining my math and making bets on this. But I’ll start working on an HN comment in a few weeks and try to remember to post it back to this thread. My basic argument is to try pinnin…

> I’ll start working on an HN comment in a few weeks and try to remember to post it back to this thread

iirc HN threads automatically close, due to inactivity and (/or?) based on time since the original post. I wasn’t able to find a thread with the comments still open from 16 days ago, let alone a “few weeks”, but in good faith I’m assuming that you already know that, and aren’t using that as an out to avoid replying, not that anyone is “owed” a reply by you, or by anyone.

This is all to say, I appreciate the thread as a bystander, and would thus naturally eagerly await your reply if and when it arrives before the closure of individual this post’s comment section.

Re: I'm glad the Anthropic fight is happening now

#197
post #186
post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

LLMs are AI. Markov text generators from the 1970s/80s are AI. Face recognition software like FaceID is AI. Many people behind LLMs got degrees under departments that have AI in their title. AI is just computers doing things we typically associate with human intelligence, and having a conversation with a computer that effectively passes the Turing test, is definitely AI. If LLMs aren't AI, then AI isn't a useful term…

My point is that they are a small subset of AI.

Bro wtf, this is like saying "I really hate how people say trees == plants" and then when challenged saying you merely meant that there are more plants than just trees. No shit, everybody knows that. What the fuck was the point?

Re: I'm glad the Anthropic fight is happening now

#198

"Within 20 years 99% of the military will be AIs" That smells like such a baseless speculation that from the get go I'm not convinced of the author's rigor.

It’s also just a category error. It’s like saying that 99% of farm workers are tractors or 99% of textile workers are looms.

To be fair, we don’t have many government mules these days, but it wasn’t always so, and not so long ago.

The current amount of horsepower on the hoof is a rounding error, but before mechanized farming and war-fighting, these distinctions were the difference.

If we consider the capacity of technology to act as a force multiplier, it is reasonable to assume that current and future AI-assisted fighting forces can achieve more with less traditional materiel and with fewer personnel.

Drones are an especially likely way that these many AIs will become embodied and diversify, in which case I don’t think the percentages are so far-fetched.

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c62662gzlp8o

> Further ahead in the future, it wants its machines to be programmed to travel autonomously to a location, carry out its task - such as watching out for advancing enemy soldiers and engaging them if necessary - and then return to base after a certain time.

Re: I'm glad the Anthropic fight is happening now

#199
post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> why isn’t supply chain risk the proper designation Because you can't designate a company a SCR because you don't like the contract you signed with them.

But the DoD signed a contract with Palantir.

to which Anthropic was a subcontractor. government agrees to the entire contract, including the subs

Re: I'm glad the Anthropic fight is happening now

#200

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're being disingenuous, but yes, if you believe the US is not inherently better than China you are fellating the most well documented modern authoritarian state, which was borne from the largest genocide in history, and has decades of examples of breaching freedoms and silencing dissidents, and is viewed negatively even by a large portion of communists. If the two are even comparable in your eyes, you are fellatin…

There's a phenomenon when PRC comes up where people actively root for the United States to lose. Some of these people are even Americans (at least on paper). Regardless of the wisdom of the Iran war, there is a sizable amount that wants to see dead Americans result from it because it would allow them to do the same moral preening that is going on in this thread with regard to China. The Americans finally "got what th…

yes everyone who has a different opinion to you is lying. that's a great worldview
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