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Smartphone market forecast to decline this year due to memory shortage

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Re: Smartphone market forecast to decline this year due to memory shortage

#191

Post by mikestorrent »

shirro wrote: post #87

Over investment in AI data centers is having a huge negative impact all over the economy. Other sectors are missing out on investment limiting their growth and stalling the economy. Companies have reduced staff prematurely on the promise of productivity improvements that have not occurred and lost customers to terrible customer service and declining product quality. Many hardware launches are going to be delayed or n…

I agree with you on the AI blogspam. This is a lot like the dot-com era, where a profusion of capital is causing people to develop complete horseshit products nobody needs. When the shine comes off, a lot of companies will fade, but many will stick around, and become the FAANGs of the 2030s.

In some ways it's pretty interesting to watch the entire world mobilize production for AI; some folks like to call this "hyperstition" as the future AGI reaches backwards in time to compel its own creation. Wild, but when trillions of dollars - i.e. millions of people's entire life output of work - are being put into something, it's truly an effort on a scale that no societal project has ever been before. There's no leader, nobody is in control, nobody has the grand vision other than "build the thing and get rich in the process". Amazing times to live in. The best use of our time and resources and coordination? Probably not... as we look around our broken cities, stepping over our poor and hopeless...

Re: Smartphone market forecast to decline this year due to memory shortage

#192

Post by mikestorrent »

crowcroft wrote: post #97
shirro wrote: post #87

Over investment in AI data centers is having a huge negative impact all over the economy. Other sectors are missing out on investment limiting their growth and stalling the economy. Companies have reduced staff prematurely on the promise of productivity improvements that have not occurred and lost customers to terrible customer service and declining product quality. Many hardware launches are going to be delayed or n…

> Other sectors are missing out on investment limiting their growth and stalling the economy. Would love to know what sectors you would say are obviously under invested. Sounds like an opportunity.

Brutally cold capitalist take. Go walk around your city, friend; remember the tragedy of the commons. There is a lot that needs to be done that isn't being done, because we're soaking up people's life's work on this effort that we don't even know the end goal of. It could result in some awful outcomes for everyone if not guided correctly, and it seems like it's not being guided at all - or worse, it's being guided by the Department of War.

Re: Smartphone market forecast to decline this year due to memory shortage

#193

Post by mikestorrent »

inigyou wrote: post #133
crowcroft wrote: post #97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Other sectors are missing out on investment limiting their growth and stalling the economy. Would love to know what sectors you would say are obviously under invested. Sounds like an opportunity.

Everything that produces useful stuff or does useful stuff.

9 amazing words right here

Re: Smartphone market forecast to decline this year due to memory shortage

#194

Post by kgwxd »

mikestorrent wrote: post #178
intrasight wrote: post #176

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's really nuts how much RAM and CPU have been squandered. In, 1990, I worked on a networked graphical browser for nuclear plants. Sun workstations had 32 mb memory. We had a requirement that the infographic screens paint in less that 2 seconds. Was a challenge but doable. Crazy thing is that computers have 1000x the memory and like 10,000x the CPU and it would still be a challenge to paints screens in 2 seconds.

Yes, the web was a mistake; as a distributed document reading platform it's a decent first attempt, but as an application platform it is miserable. I'm working on a colleague's vibe-coded app right now and it's just piles and piles of code to do something fairly simple; long builds and hundreds of dependencies... most of which are because HTML is shitty, doesn't have the GUI controls that people need built in, and al…

> the web was a mistake;

It's not "the web" or HTML, CSS, or JavaScript. That's all instant in vanilla form. Any media in today's quality will of course take time to download but, once cached, is also instant. None of the UX "requires" the crap that makes it slow, certainly not thousands of lines to make a table sortable and filterable. I could do that in IE6 without breaking a sweat. It's way easier, and faster, now. It's just people being lazy in how they do it, Apparetnly now just accepting whatever claude gave them as "best in show".

Re: Smartphone market forecast to decline this year due to memory shortage

#195

Post by NullPrefix »

mikestorrent wrote: post #178
intrasight wrote: post #176

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's really nuts how much RAM and CPU have been squandered. In, 1990, I worked on a networked graphical browser for nuclear plants. Sun workstations had 32 mb memory. We had a requirement that the infographic screens paint in less that 2 seconds. Was a challenge but doable. Crazy thing is that computers have 1000x the memory and like 10,000x the CPU and it would still be a challenge to paints screens in 2 seconds.

Yes, the web was a mistake; as a distributed document reading platform it's a decent first attempt, but as an application platform it is miserable. I'm working on a colleague's vibe-coded app right now and it's just piles and piles of code to do something fairly simple; long builds and hundreds of dependencies... most of which are because HTML is shitty, doesn't have the GUI controls that people need built in, and al…

Back in PHP days you had an incentive to care about performance, because it's your servers that are overloaded. With frontend there's no such issue, because it's not your hardware that is being loaded

Re: Smartphone market forecast to decline this year due to memory shortage

#196

Post by walterbell »

warkdarrior wrote: post #122
walterbell wrote: post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not sure. Some AI audio pendants are always on. The Apple device is rumored to adapt its interface to the user based on facial recognition. They could choose to start monitoring audio when it thinks a known human wants to interact with the device, https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47145201 Apple is developing a tabletop robot as the centerpiece of its artificial intelligence strategy, with plans to launch the devi…

> Some AI audio pendants are always on. The Apple device is rumored to adapt its interface to the user based on facial recognition. Hmmm, so they traded always-on audio recording for always-on video recording. Not sure this is an improvement.

FaceID (3D) facial recognition would not need video recording.

Re: Smartphone market forecast to decline this year due to memory shortage

#197

Post by kyralis »

thewebguyd wrote: post #18
ProfessorLayton wrote: post #8

Somehow, with 12GB of RAM, I can't get my iPhone 17 Pro to keep more than a few safari tabs open without having them refresh when I come back from an app or two, and it makes me want to throw my phone across the train (Where the internet often cuts out!). A lot of software has been squandering the massive hardware gains that have been made. I hope this changes when it becomes a lot harder to throw hardware at the pro…

iOS I think has really aggressive background task killing, and it also drives me insane. I know they do it for battery life but I'm about ready to switch to Android, and would have a long time ago if I that didn't also mean replacing my watch, headphones, etc. Is it too much to ask for me to manage my own background processes on my phone? I don't want the OS arbitrarily deciding what to pause & kill. If it actually d…

iOS doesn't have aggressive background task killing except for memory pressure. It suspends apps for battery life; it only kills them under memory constraints. If you don't want apps dying and tabs closing, use apps that use less memory. iOS does not have swap out of a desire to avoid unnecessary NAND wear (and to avoid the performance impact), so it must more aggressively kill things.

Re: Smartphone market forecast to decline this year due to memory shortage

#198

Post by kyralis »

mosura wrote: post #19
ProfessorLayton wrote: post #8

Somehow, with 12GB of RAM, I can't get my iPhone 17 Pro to keep more than a few safari tabs open without having them refresh when I come back from an app or two, and it makes me want to throw my phone across the train (Where the internet often cuts out!). A lot of software has been squandering the massive hardware gains that have been made. I hope this changes when it becomes a lot harder to throw hardware at the pro…

Memory uses power, this is a major factor in why aggressively stopping things helps. There is a strong argument modern mobile goes too far for this.

This is nonsense, at least on iOS. Apps get killed due to total system memory usage, not for power -- they only get suspended to save power.

Re: Smartphone market forecast to decline this year due to memory shortage

#199

Post by pm90 »

13%!!! This should be a code red level event for … the world? I … don’t understand how world leaders are just standing by? Smartphone growth/adoption has been the bedrock of a LOT of economic growth. I would have expected massive Government intervention to avoid this.

Where are the China hawks? The argument for protecting Taiwan was that without their chips the smartphone market would contract, right? Thats whats happening now?!

Re: Smartphone market forecast to decline this year due to memory shortage

#200

Post by skeptic_ai »

kyralis wrote: post #197
thewebguyd wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

iOS I think has really aggressive background task killing, and it also drives me insane. I know they do it for battery life but I'm about ready to switch to Android, and would have a long time ago if I that didn't also mean replacing my watch, headphones, etc. Is it too much to ask for me to manage my own background processes on my phone? I don't want the OS arbitrarily deciding what to pause & kill. If it actually d…

iOS doesn't have aggressive background task killing except for memory pressure. It suspends apps for battery life; it only kills them under memory constraints. If you don't want apps dying and tabs closing, use apps that use less memory. iOS does not have swap out of a desire to avoid unnecessary NAND wear (and to avoid the performance impact), so it must more aggressively kill things.

So I have safari and I can’t switch to my email? Both native apps and sometimes I lose the state of safari if I move more than 10s away? I have to keep switching between the 2 apps to keep alive my safari tab? Insanity
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