Can chose to increase production or embrace the scarcity. The later might look delicious on paper. More profit, less effort, less short term risk. All you have to do is ignore the whale in the room.
They are increasing production. Fabs take multiple years to come online. The modern semiconductor industry moves only very slowly and at very great cost.
There is no point in increasing production for a memory standard that will be phased out next year unless you're Chinese.
As a outside observer, NAND and DRAM prices have skyrocket ed with the AI infrastructure boom just as the China-based fabs are coming online. It is wise for these Chinese fabs to eventually use a very aggressive dumping strategy to price well below cost push out other players forever, especially in DRAM. But right now it seems they can max out their supply capacity without selling below cost. Appears to me like China…
Dumping is when you sell things for below cost. It is not dumping when you charge a 500% markup instead of a 1000% markup, even if the market is currently selling at that markup.
I thought the same but when I googled, the results disagreed with this point of view.
All the laws listed there define dumping as something being sold below the "normal price" and there being some quantifiable harm being done to local industry of the country being exported to.
So it has nothing to do necessarily with the cost of production, and based on this it could be considered price dumping.
As a outside observer, NAND and DRAM prices have skyrocket ed with the AI infrastructure boom just as the China-based fabs are coming online. It is wise for these Chinese fabs to eventually use a very aggressive dumping strategy to price well below cost push out other players forever, especially in DRAM. But right now it seems they can max out their supply capacity without selling below cost. Appears to me like China…
I find people tend to miss the productive aspects of Chinese state led investments because they don't consider their value at scale. Take the HSR system, it has been derided time and again as being wasteful, and too expensive, and so on. Yet, now it's become a key artery for trade and commerce across China. It allows goods to move at an incredible speed, boosts tourism, and helps overall development of many regions which otherwise wouldn't see much economic activity.
It's amazing what can be achieved when you can plan 5 years in advance, instead of just making the line go up for the next quarter.
History is littered with the corpses of those slaughtered by the millions in the name of great leader’s 5 year plans. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Leap_Forward
OP's point exactly: the Great Leap Forward is the classic example of society murdering people to make the line go up every quarter, no matter the cost or the truth.
Geopolitics and industrial policty aside, I think it's important to check how stable and reliable these chips are. I wouldn't count on them being on par with "western" ones. Correct me if I am wrong here.
Even Apple is looking into them as providers. And imagine what the money Apple can provide in advance can do for their manufacturing needs if they are serious about securing memory supply for their product lines.
That's the most obvious example of failure of Chinese central planning. That and one child policy were abysmal failures that resulted from shoddy science coupled to effective central authority. Look at the 12/13/14th 5 year plan (the most recently passed). Do you think they achieved their goals? If your headcanon is that the CCP is inept because they caused crop failures 60 years ago... you could stand to take a look…
The big difference recently from the past is instead of philosophers its scientists who are making the plans and decisions in China so are willing to course correct instead staying the course despite bad out comes.
I don't know if that tracks, senior leadership was heavily influenced towards implementing the one child policy by the works of Song Jian, who came from a rocketry background and presented a model whereby the population would grow to an unsustainable level unless corrective control was applied.
I think it is unlikely philosophers would have suggested to treat population growth like tuning a PID controller.
History is littered with the corpses of those slaughtered by the millions in the name of great leader’s 5 year plans. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Leap_Forward
That's the most obvious example of failure of Chinese central planning. That and one child policy were abysmal failures that resulted from shoddy science coupled to effective central authority. Look at the 12/13/14th 5 year plan (the most recently passed). Do you think they achieved their goals? If your headcanon is that the CCP is inept because they caused crop failures 60 years ago... you could stand to take a look…
One child policy has brought a demographic problem today but has solved an existential problem in 70s
Dumping is when you sell things for below cost. It is not dumping when you charge a 500% markup instead of a 1000% markup, even if the market is currently selling at that markup.
I thought the same but when I googled, the results disagreed with this point of view. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dumping_(pricing_policy) All the laws listed there define dumping as something being sold below the "normal price" and there being some quantifiable harm being done to local industry of the country being exported to. So it has nothing to do necessarily with the cost of production, and based on this it c…
That's merely the marginalists at the WTO struggling to fit their beliefs that value is subjective and unkowable into the reality of commodity production.
Is there a reason GPU's don't use insane "blocks" of sdcard slots (for massively parallel io) so the model weights don't need to pass through a limited PCI bus?
Maybe latency. IIRC flash is a lot laggier than DRAMs and SRAMs.
The random access memory models is not really representative of ML workloads (both training and inference), where multiplying large tensors result in predictable memory access patterns.