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The US is flirting with its first-ever population decline

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Re: The US is flirting with its first-ever population decline

#191

Post by bombcar »

globular-toast wrote: post #117
queuebert wrote: post #16

Why do we obsess over growing everything all the time?

Basically it makes people feel good. Growth is exciting and motivates people to do stuff. Shrinkage makes people sad, depressed and more likely to try to protect what they have. It's often irrational, but that's just the way it is. Growth isn't sustainable, of course. If you're a gardener you get to experience the joy of growth every year, but you have to "pay it back" in autumn and winter as everything dies back and…

This might be a really good analogy - we're in an endless summer and we have people who are now dying having lived in it their entire life - we don't even know what fall is like, let alone winter.

On a personal level it might be possible to "bring winter back" - I'll have think on what that might mean.

Re: The US is flirting with its first-ever population decline

#192

Post by randusername »

supertrope wrote: post #111
jdlyga wrote: post #68

Once you have a kid, it's obvious why even besides the costs involved. There's not much sense of community, particularly in the white middle class. People are very individualistic and distrusting of others. There's a good reason for some of this, but to have a community you need to be a community member. And that means letting people in, trusting others and being trustworthy, and being out for the group instead of ju…

The book Bowling Alone by Robert Putnam is about the decline of civil society. Church membership is down. Labor union membership is down. Parents got crushed in the pandemic with school shutdowns, daycare shutdowns, and formula shortages. It takes two incomes to afford a family's lifestyle. Someone has to take care of the kid. Two people have to do the job of three people.

Second this. Maybe also "The Fourth Turning"

It is cool to live in a place where everyone questions the roles society might impose on them, but it's too extreme lately. The cost of community is inconvenience. The price of individuality is loneliness.

So much of life is brutally inefficient without networks of trust and reciprocity.

Re: The US is flirting with its first-ever population decline

#193

Post by [deleted] »

pjc50 wrote: post #80
myrmidon wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the "cost of living" explanation for low birthrates is just wrong, and not even plausible (anecdote: my grandmother had 17 siblings, and they could not even afford proper sunday shoes for all of them, much less current living standards). I think the biggest impact is from kids being obsolete/net negative as both workforce (when young) and retirement scheme (when the parents are old). But there is no reverting…

Animals have "r/k selection": https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/R/K_selection_theory ; some have huge numbers of offspring (e.g. spiders, most fish), some carefully nurture a single egg per year. Humans are already at the smaller number of offspring compared to the rest of the animal kingdom, but what I think is happening is that social pressure has simply pushed the tradeoff hard into "quality". That is, the message is…

[deleted]

Re: The US is flirting with its first-ever population decline

#194

Post by WarmWash »

jdlyga wrote: post #68

Once you have a kid, it's obvious why even besides the costs involved. There's not much sense of community, particularly in the white middle class. People are very individualistic and distrusting of others. There's a good reason for some of this, but to have a community you need to be a community member. And that means letting people in, trusting others and being trustworthy, and being out for the group instead of ju…

Its not boring being inside anymore.

Rewind the clock a few decades and there were a lot more reasons to go outside.

Re: The US is flirting with its first-ever population decline

#195

Post by biophysboy »

oklahomasports wrote: post #154
biophysboy wrote: post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am not remotely worried about birth rates. Every tech executive hyperventilating about it is extrapolating social trends decades ahead, which is the same mistake Erlich made when he published the "The Population Bomb". The total fertility rate has limitations as a metric too (it assumes constant birth timing). The fact that they do this coercive paternalism on the very platforms that substitute for real life social…

Predicting population decline is safer than overgrowth. Since with low birth rates we know we need substantially higher than replacement rates to make up for the deficit. Which seems unlikely

Safer in the sense that its better to be overcautious than under? I definitely agree! I'm just saying we could do without the finger wagging. Either we commit to fostering relationships or we commit to their substitutes. I'm just saying I call their bluff.

Re: The US is flirting with its first-ever population decline

#196

Post by fragmede »

rjbwork wrote: post #143
ryandrake wrote: post #102

If the US wants to increase its population, maybe it should stop sending masked agents out to kick in doors, directly reducing the population.

The US doesn't want indiscriminate population growth. It wants white people that were born here to reproduce more.

Does it? It sure costs a whole helluava lot. I mean, there's tax credits and things, but it's not at all cheap!

Re: The US is flirting with its first-ever population decline

#197

Post by laffOr »

dh2022 wrote: post #86
myrmidon wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the "cost of living" explanation for low birthrates is just wrong, and not even plausible (anecdote: my grandmother had 17 siblings, and they could not even afford proper sunday shoes for all of them, much less current living standards). I think the biggest impact is from kids being obsolete/net negative as both workforce (when young) and retirement scheme (when the parents are old). But there is no reverting…

Flash news - todays people have higher standards and expectations of living than your grandma and grandpa. In particular - most people want college education for their kids. College education comes with tens of thousands in expenses and people are like "how am I gonna put 2 kids in college? I think I will have 1" Another flash news for people who haven't had kids in daycare for a while - pricing for daycare means tha…

The college explanation cannot be the full or even the main driver, because countries with free college (+ scholarships) have the same issue. Same for daycare pricing.

Re: The US is flirting with its first-ever population decline

#198

Post by kdheiwns »

watwut wrote: post #150
supertrope wrote: post #111

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The book Bowling Alone by Robert Putnam is about the decline of civil society. Church membership is down. Labor union membership is down. Parents got crushed in the pandemic with school shutdowns, daycare shutdowns, and formula shortages. It takes two incomes to afford a family's lifestyle. Someone has to take care of the kid. Two people have to do the job of three people.

> It takes two incomes to afford a family's lifestyle. Someone has to take care of the kid. Two people have to do the job of three people. Being stay at home parent is one of the most lonely thing you can do. Yes, the parent who works in office and goes bowling with collagues is less lonely. But the one who is spending whole day with a small kid and no one else is much more lonely .They cant go bowling either, becaus…

The comment you're responding to is about a decline in social institutions in general. As someone from a tiny town, when I was growing up, stay at home moms were always outside and talking all day. They'd watch over kids together as well. The loneliness aspect of parenthood is a modern invention.

Re: The US is flirting with its first-ever population decline

#199

Post by AdamN »

koolba wrote: post #136
ryandrake wrote: post #102

If the US wants to increase its population, maybe it should stop sending masked agents out to kick in doors, directly reducing the population.

The US has endless backlog of people waiting in line to legally enter the country. It doesn’t need to keep any illegal aliens to meet its immigration goals.

Wouldn't it be simplest to just legalize the people who are here and at the same time also open up immigrant visas too?

Re: The US is flirting with its first-ever population decline

#200

Post by [deleted] »

rjbwork wrote: post #143
ryandrake wrote: post #102

If the US wants to increase its population, maybe it should stop sending masked agents out to kick in doors, directly reducing the population.

The US doesn't want indiscriminate population growth. It wants white people that were born here to reproduce more.

[deleted]
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