It should be obvious why Peter Thiel started Polymarket and also Palantir.
The microstructure of wealth transfer in prediction markets
191–193 of 193 posts
Re: The microstructure of wealth transfer in prediction markets
#192Earlier quoted context omitted.
It's a national security issue too. Somebody poor grunt who chose to earn a living by laboring (which has proven to be much less effective than being born with money) will be putting fuel in the bombers and thinking "I could just make an anonymous bet..." It's a national security issue. We saw this with the Venezuela attack. A flurry of trading and someone made $400,000 for placing a bet mere hours before the "surpri…
That person is reportedly in jail and facing serious time. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/trump-jails-venezuela-leaker-... Anyone with a security clearance making bets like this is not a smart person.
Is this confirmed by a trustworthy source? This article only reports on what president Trump stated. Given the source and the lack of any details, this isn’t verifiable which I think is a minimum requirement.
Re: The microstructure of wealth transfer in prediction markets
#193Earlier quoted context omitted.
Why not just bet heavily against and then inform maintainers? By just betting on it instead it makes you look like you, or someone you know planted the malware
That is what I meant to say, that you'd inform the maintainers along with your bet against the commit. In this thought experiment I assumed that the maintainers are already being spammed by AI so heavily that the bet is necessary to get their attention. (Neal Stephenson had something similar going in in Anathem, he called them "bogons".) In the case where you're betting heavily in favor of a commit, maybe because you…
I was thinking of a similar idea to this, but for news/tweets/posts. As a consumer of media, I might decide to only read media with $x staked, so AI media factories need to be willing to stake that much to reach audiences, and will get penalized when they are wrong…
I imagine a hard problem is building a system to resolve these markets.