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American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

kielinstitut.de

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Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#191

Post by dominicrose »

BanAntiVaxxers wrote: post #121
PaulRobinson wrote: post #106

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A lot of Americans believed the guy they wanted to believe in, because they didn't want to believe the people they didn't want to believe in. You're assuming that modern politics across most of the World has something to do with rational, logical thought. Russia, China, Europe, the US, the Middle East - they are all in a quagmire of irrational fractures between the public and the political classes who want power/cont…

[flagged]

Women have had the right to vote for a long time. Women could not bring themselves to vote for a woman for President.

People talk a lot about Trump but I think a lot of people just voted against the other option so it didn't have much to do with Trump to begin with.

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#192

Post by __s »

philk10 wrote: post #4
ungreased0675 wrote: post #2

> Event studies around discrete tariff shocks on Brazil (50%) and India (25–50%) confirm: export prices did not decline. Trade volumes collapsed instead. What if that was the intended result?

your question implies that the person in charge of tariffs has any idea of the effect of using them...

I've heard this defence plenty from other Americans. & the campaign pushed "built in America" as a goal, so it seems likely the person in charge had this idea

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#193

Post by estearum »

ifwinterco wrote: post #186
bartread wrote: post #56

I'm glad they've done the work here and put a figure on it - the impact absolutely needed to be quantified - but I also have to say... to the surprise of absolutely no-one with even the most basic grasp of how economies function. People, lots of people, lots of people who have a really deep understanding of national and global economics (unlike me), have been warning about this since talk of tariffs became common cur…

Tariffs could make sense economically, but even in that case, they would "hurt consumers", because that's the whole point - address the imbalance between consumption and production currently being made to add up with constantly increasing debt. If you were going to do that though, it would be more like a 10-20% blanket tariff on all goods. No exceptions, no special deals, and you can't use tariffs as a negotiating to…

Or you can use tariffs in a highly targeted way to try defend certain domestic industries from foreign competition. But as is common with this administration, they're doing everything in the dumbest and least productive way possible.

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#194

Post by tw04 »

nathan_compton wrote: post #167
BanAntiVaxxers wrote: post #121

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

I don't buy this - Harris had a big bump in the polls as soon as she entered the race and I think she could have won if she had offered voters anything . This bullshit that American's won't vote for a woman is just an excuse not to run women and to deflect blame towards a culture war issue and away from the fact that the democrats don't actually have popular policies. I voted for Harris, I even canvased for her, but…

> I think she could have won if she had offered voters anything.

But she did offer voters lots of things if you spent 30 seconds listening to her and stepped out of the faux news and Twitter echo chambers.

And basically every last bit of it would’ve helped the average American. She just didn’t lie and claim she had a magic wand to fix price gouging her first week in office.

https://www.politifact.com/article/2024/sep/30/kamala-harris...

*And to be clear, it’s rather interesting that both Kamala and Hillary were blamed for “not having a platform” which seems to be the go-to for people who refuse to vote for a woman but can’t actually attack them on their platform. Just claim they don't have one or didn’t do a good enough job explaining it!

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#196

Post by estearum »

wolvoleo wrote: post #128
rozap wrote: post #125

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What? He rambled about it all the time. It wasn't coherent but he did always say this is what he was going to do.

Oh ok I didn't follow it that closely of course but that part didn't make it into the news here. He did complain about the trade imbalance but not specifically tariffs. Ps: there isn't really a trade imbalance if you take services into accounts but Trump calculated them only on goods as if that makes sense I don't think that would have resonated with his followers at all though.

Did it require more than 6 syllables? Then no: no resonance among the base.

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#197

Post by MonkeyClub »

embedding-shape wrote: post #179
MonkeyClub wrote: post #164

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> but I also have to say... to the surprise of absolutely no-one with even the most basic grasp of how economies function. Exactly: tariffs are taxes in another guise. They only serve to create an (artificial) price advantage of local over imported goods for as long as they're levied. > What were you thinking? What was going through your heads? I'm genuinely curious. I also can't fathom why the crowd (not just a HN s…

> I also can't fathom why the crowd (not just a HN subset) that was clamoring for tariffs thought it'd be anyone other than them shouldering the increase. Perhaps their influencers didn't spell it out for them? Now I'm neither in the US, American nor Democrat/Republican, but as far as I understand their argument, is that they know it means higher costs for those products for them, and it'll eventually lead to compani…

Yep, I came down to a similar conclusion in my thinking, and assumed they wouldn't have thought of the cost of restarting local industry, or of importing foreign (tariffed) materials for the local industry to work with.

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#199

Post by u1hcw9nx »

shaky-carrousel wrote: post #66

There's an entire world to trade with. If the Americans choose to shoot themselves in the foot, we won't be the ones paying for the bandage. Also, it's deeply naïve to assume tariffed countries would absorb the cost. Why would they? It's like going into a shop and asking for a discount because you just took out a loan. Why would the shop give you a discount for something you inflicted on yourself? And what makes you…

3 days ago world's largest free-trade area was created when EU and Mercosur bloc signed free trade deal after 25 years of negotiations.

EU + South America start trading more while America shuts itself out.

Re: American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysis

#200

Post by 3vidence »

kryogen1c wrote: post #168

Almost all the comments acting like this is some truth bombshell, like people in trumpistan all thought raising tariffs magically made the us economy better. This is a straw man, no? Tariffs are a mid-long term strategy to encourage onshoring business, for reasons including military, national security, and political influence on foreign powers. This is a complicated topic involving the global economy and evolving int…

That argument seems completely nullified by the fact that the president unilaterally changes his mind on tariffs every other day and setting up a manufacturing basis can take 10+ years.

Seems safer for many business to just continue to operate outside of the US and get a more consistent business relationship with every other country in the world.

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