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Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling

theatlantic.com

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Re: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling

#191

Post by bo1024 »

skippyboxedhero wrote: post #121
stickfigure wrote: post #49

The only material objection mentioned in the article is that prediction markets are easy to manipulate. Well, only if they are thinly traded. If they get mentioned a lot more on CNN and CNBC, that is likely to change.

No, completely wrong. Deep markets are not more accurate. People who are unfamiliar with how regulated gamblings works assume that the "market" is just lots of informed people rationally trading with each other. This is not how it works. Bookmakers post lines to a small group of syndicates up to a limit, they will often do this non-publicly, and this is how prices are set. They are not set by the "wisdom of crowds",…

Are you describing how sports gambling odds are set? Prediction markets Polymarket and Kalshi do not function the way you describe, at least, not yet.

Re: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling

#192

Post by gpm »

latency-guy2 wrote: post #189
gpm wrote: post #136

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If the prediction market is for a non-trivial amount, it's likely someone is going to kill you in exchange for the money the prediction market offered them . The prediction market isn't acting as a prophet here, it's acting as a plausibly deniable murder for hire service and you are its victim. The people "betting against" you dying just paid to have you killed.

Why would the opposing side of that exact same bet allow themselves to be fleeced of all that money for free?

You're asking why someone hiring a hitman would be willing to part with their money?

Because that's what money is for, to purchase things, like hitmen (apparently).

Re: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling

#193

Post by dragonwriter »

latency-guy2 wrote: post #189
gpm wrote: post #136

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If the prediction market is for a non-trivial amount, it's likely someone is going to kill you in exchange for the money the prediction market offered them . The prediction market isn't acting as a prophet here, it's acting as a plausibly deniable murder for hire service and you are its victim. The people "betting against" you dying just paid to have you killed.

Why would the opposing side of that exact same bet allow themselves to be fleeced of all that money for free?

The opposing side is getting paid, not getting fleeced.

Re: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling

#194

Post by mcphage »

valiant55 wrote: post #153
mcphage wrote: post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We should have made it clearer that monied interests have a choice: be kept in check by the law, or by the guillotine.

I'm too entralled by TikTok to build a guillotine.

Is that why the TikTok ban fell through?! …figures.

Re: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling

#195

Post by paulddraper »

andrepd wrote: post #78
Buttons840 wrote: post #65

This is a problem, a net negative and a sign of a weakening society. But, one silver lining, maybe, is gamblers are a little less likely to fall for fake news. Maybe? It seems hard to be a climate change denier when you're about to gamble on it. Or maybe people will find a way to gamble while still living in completely different reality bubbles. Probably. If you thought your neighbor was politically extreme last elec…

> But, one silver lining, maybe, is gamblers are a little less likely to fall for fake news. Maybe? 5 minutes browsing polymarket comments will dispel that notion really fast.

The comments are not the bets.

In fact, they are often opposite.

Re: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling

#196

Post by dragonwriter »

echoangle wrote: post #137
gpm wrote: post #136

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If the prediction market is for a non-trivial amount, it's likely someone is going to kill you in exchange for the money the prediction market offered them . The prediction market isn't acting as a prophet here, it's acting as a plausibly deniable murder for hire service and you are its victim. The people "betting against" you dying just paid to have you killed.

Yes, OOP might have chosen a suboptimal example here. But for general newsworthy events, people aren’t going to be in positions to manually make them happen. And no person in a position to start a war would do it to affect a Polymarket bet.

> But for general newsworthy events, people aren’t going to be in positions to manually make them happen.

Many newsworthy events (and even more events that actually reach prediction markets, many of which are at best marginally newsworthy) are actions ultimately pivot on a human decision, so the first part isn’t true.

> And no person in a position to start a war would do it to affect a Polymarket bet.

Are you saying “no one would start a war with personal financial gain being part of the motivation”, or “it is impossible for the payoff of a prediction market bet to be of sufficient magnitude to alter the calculus in even the tiniest iota in that case”?

Because the first seems extremely clearly false, and the second seems improbable in the case where the first is false.

Re: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling

#197

Post by hackable_sand »

smeej wrote: post #127

> The irony of prediction markets is that they are supposed to be a more trustworthy way of gleaning the future than internet clickbait and half-baked punditry, but they risk shredding whatever shared trust we still have left. The suspiciously well-timed bets that one Polymarket user placed right before the capture of Nicolás Maduro may have been just a stroke of phenomenal luck that netted a roughly $400,000 payout.…

It appears you are missing any cursory philosophy, ethics, logic, etc. courses.

Re: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling

#198

Post by pgodzin »

shimman wrote: post #100
koolba wrote: post #35

> A billionaire congressional candidate can’t just send a check to Quinnipiac University and suddenly find himself as the polling front-runner, but he can place enormous Polymarket bets on himself that move the odds in his favor. Maybe not with a specific pollster depending on their scruples, but you can definitely pay to be part of the poll. And that’s the first step to getting any stats whatsoever.

It doesn't really work, up until a few weeks before the NYC mayoral election. Polymarket had Andrew Cuomo winning by double digits. It's a trash platform.

There are much better ways to tell if a prediction market is well calibrated than a single anecdote.

And if it works so poorly, there's a lot of easy money to be made.

Re: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling

#199

Post by scoofy »

b65e8bee43c2ed0 wrote: post #51
bshaughn wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It gives people in power, wether it be the government or even an NBA ref, a vehicle to profit off of conflicts of interest / fixing games / etc... Ive seen people point out White House press conferences do weird shit, like cut the conference 10 seconds before some polymarket prop bet of "how long will this press conference be". Much more heinously, a few months ago right before one of Trumps asinine tariff announceme…

>It gives people in power, wether it be the government or even an NBA ref, a vehicle to profit off of conflicts of interest / fixing games / etc... there is the stock market for those things, where insider trading is nigh invisible to public.

> where insider trading is nigh invisible to public

...and is illegal.

It's not illegal to throw a basketball game.

Re: Prediction markets are ushering in a world in which news becomes about gambling

#200

Post by manicennui »

smeej wrote: post #127

> The irony of prediction markets is that they are supposed to be a more trustworthy way of gleaning the future than internet clickbait and half-baked punditry, but they risk shredding whatever shared trust we still have left. The suspiciously well-timed bets that one Polymarket user placed right before the capture of Nicolás Maduro may have been just a stroke of phenomenal luck that netted a roughly $400,000 payout.…

The interesting thing to me about this example is that it had to be someone lower level in or near the administration with less wealth, but who knew about a military operation. Hard to imagine any of the rich people around him risking a bet for such a small sum.
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