The next two years of software engineering • Hacker News Board

Re: The next two years of software engineering

#191

Post by zelphirkalt » Mon, Jan 12, 2026, 1:13 PM UTC

spacebanana7 wrote: post #95

falloutx wrote: post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The whole story about vibecoding and LLMs replacing engineers has become a huge distraction Because the first thing that comes from individual speed up is not engineers making more money but there being less engineers, How much less is the question? Would they be satisfied with 10%, 50% or may be 99%?

Generally the demand for software engineers has increased as their productivity has increased, looking back over the past few decades. There seems to be effectively infinite demand for software from consumers and enterprises so the cheaper it gets the more they buy. If we doubled agricultural productivity globally we'd need to have fewer farmers because there's no way we can all eat twice as much food. But we can abs…

Oh but we can absolutely let all that food go to waste! In many places unbelievable amounts of food go to waste.

Actually, most software either is garbage or goes to waste at some point too. Maybe that's too negative. Maybe one could call it rot or becoming obsolete or obscure.

Re: The next two years of software engineering

#192

Post by groguzt » Mon, Jan 12, 2026, 1:13 PM UTC

misja111 wrote: post #125

> Senior developers: Fewer juniors means more grunt work landing on your plate I'm not sure I agree with that. Right now as a senior my task involves reviewing code from juniors; replace juniors with AI and it means reviewing code from AI. More or less the same thing.

currently my job as a junior is to review vibe code that was "written" by seniors. it's just such bullshit and they make mistakes I wouldn't even dare to make in my first year of school

Re: The next two years of software engineering

#193

Post by Havoc » Mon, Jan 12, 2026, 1:16 PM UTC

One of the better analysis of this question I think.

On the optimistic take side - I suspect it might end up being true that software might be infused into more niches but not sure it follows that this helps on the jobs market side. Or put different demand for software and SWE might decouple somewhat for much of that additional software demand.

Re: The next two years of software engineering

#194

Post by FrustratedMonky » Mon, Jan 12, 2026, 1:21 PM UTC

Maybe a harsh criticism. The article seemed to be all over the place, maybe because the subject is also all over the place. I agree with everything, its just that it seemed like the same story we've been in for awhile.

Wasn't the main take away generally "study everything even more than you were, and talk/network to everybody even more than you were, and hold on. Work more more more"

Re: The next two years of software engineering

#195

Post by djeastm » Mon, Jan 12, 2026, 1:32 PM UTC

reedf1 wrote: post #104

All well-documented knowledge fields will be gone if software goes. Then the undocumented ones will become documented, and they too will go. The best advice to junior devs is get a hands on job before robotic articulating sausages are perfected and humans become irrelevant blobs of watery meat.

I'm looking forward to the antics of first-generation robotic plumbers and electricians, myself.

Re: The next two years of software engineering

#196

Post by burnermore » Mon, Jan 12, 2026, 1:39 PM UTC

gofreddygo wrote: post #110

burnermore wrote: post #67

Something very odd about the tone of this article. Is it mostly AI written? There is a lot of references and info. But I am feeling far more disconnected with it. For the record, I was genuinely trying to read it properly. But it is becoming unbearable by mid article.

100% has that AI slop smell. intro... Problem... (The Bottom line... What to do about it...) Looped over and over. and then Finally... I want to read it, but I can't get myself to.

Understandable. I usually only recognise AI assist cos someone in the comment section points it out. But the off putting tone of this was blatantly obvious. This is by far the most AI influenced article I have read yet.

Re: The next two years of software engineering

#197

Post by Esophagus4 » Mon, Jan 12, 2026, 1:39 PM UTC

lovich wrote: post #87

babblingfish wrote: post #20

My experience hasn't been LLMs automate coding, just speeds it up. It's like I know what I want the solution to be and I'll describe it to the LLM, usually for specific code blocks at a time, and then build it up block-by-block. When I read hacker news people are talking like it's doing much more than that. It doesn't feel like an automation tool to me at all. It just helps me do what I was gonna do anyways, but with…

All I know is that firing half my employees and never hiring entry level people again nets me a bonus next quarter. Not really sure why this article is talking about what happens 2 years from now since that’s 8 times longer than anything anyone with money or power cares about.

Hmmm I know this it’s true because if management only thought quarterly, no one would ever hire anyone. Hiring someone takes 6+ months to pay off as they get up to productivity.

Re: The next two years of software engineering

#198

Post by reactordev » Mon, Jan 12, 2026, 1:48 PM UTC

maciejzj wrote: post #171

schnitzelstoat wrote: post #161

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I felt a lot safer when I was a young grad than now that I have kids to support and I can't just up and move to wherever the best job opportunity is or live off lentils to save money or whatever.

Yeah, kids change the landscape a lot. On the other hand, if you don't have any personal ties, its easier to grab opportunities, but you are unlikely to build any kind of social network when chasing jobs all over the country/world. Either way, there is very little to no path toward "family + place to live + stable job" model.

This. At 43 I have friends that are all over the country now.

Where I am I’m alone. Don’t underestimate the value of community.

Re: The next two years of software engineering

#199

Post by christophilus » Mon, Jan 12, 2026, 1:49 PM UTC

trueismywork wrote: post #64

babblingfish wrote: post #20

My experience hasn't been LLMs automate coding, just speeds it up. It's like I know what I want the solution to be and I'll describe it to the LLM, usually for specific code blocks at a time, and then build it up block-by-block. When I read hacker news people are talking like it's doing much more than that. It doesn't feel like an automation tool to me at all. It just helps me do what I was gonna do anyways, but with…

You can think of LLMs as a higher level language for whatever programming language you are using, but informal with ambiguous grammar.

And a buggy (non-deterministic) compiler that will occasionally do random things that break your security model, leak sessions, and the like.

Re: The next two years of software engineering

#200

Post by slfnflctd » Mon, Jan 12, 2026, 1:49 PM UTC

Havoc wrote: post #193

One of the better analysis of this question I think. On the optimistic take side - I suspect it might end up being true that software might be infused into more niches but not sure it follows that this helps on the jobs market side. Or put different demand for software and SWE might decouple somewhat for much of that additional software demand.

I'm mostly convinced at this point that the jobs market will only be affected temporarily.

This is really just another form of automation, speeding things up. We can now make more customized software more quickly and cheaply. The market is already realizing that fact, and demand for more performant, bespoke software at lower costs/prices is increasing.

Those who are good at understanding the primary areas of concern in software design generally, and who can communicate well, will continue to be very much in demand.