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Is it a bubble?

oaktreecapital.com

191–200 of 605 posts

Re: Is it a bubble?

#191

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Describing a compiler as "AI" is certainly a take.

it's something that crossed my mind too honestly. natural-language-to-code translation.

You can also do search query to code translation by using GitHub or StackOverflow.

Re: Is it a bubble?

#192
post #182

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A compiler can be deterministic in some cases, but not necessarily so. A compiler for natural language cannot be deterministic, for example. It seems you're confusing what a compiler is with implementation details. Let's get this topic back on track. What is it that you think a compiler does if not take in what you typed out for what you want and use that to generate code?

This doesn't feel like good-faith. There are leagues of difference between "what you typed out" when that's in a highly structured compiler-specific codified syntax *expressly designed* as the input to a compiler that produces computer programs, and "what you typed out" when that's an English-language prompt, sometimes vague and extremely high-level That difference - and the assumed delta in difficulty, training and…

> This doesn't feel like good-faith.

When has a semantic "argument" ever felt like good faith? All it can ever be is someone choosing what a term means to them and try to beat down others until they adopt the same meaning. Which will never happen because nobody really cares.

They are hilarious, but pointless. You know that going into it.

Re: Is it a bubble?

#193
post #147

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's true for me. I type in what I want and then the AI system (compiler) generates the code. Doesn't everyone work that way?

Describing a compiler as "AI" is certainly a take.

Compilers are probably closer to "intelligence" than LLMs.

Re: Is it a bubble?

#194
I am shocked at the discourse over this. I'm either ahead of the curve or behind; but its undeniable that AI can and does write most the code. Not trivial, if you spend some time and dig deep into simple appearing web apps like https://microphonetest.com or https://internetspeed.my you'd be amazed at how fast they went from mvp to full feature. Trivial to think anyone could pull off something like that in hours.

Re: Is it a bubble?

#195
post #182

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A compiler can be deterministic in some cases, but not necessarily so. A compiler for natural language cannot be deterministic, for example. It seems you're confusing what a compiler is with implementation details. Let's get this topic back on track. What is it that you think a compiler does if not take in what you typed out for what you want and use that to generate code?

I've written more than one compiler, so I definitely understand how compilers work. It seems you're trying to call anything that transforms one thing into another a compiler. We all know what a compiler is and what it does (except maybe you? It's not clear to me) so I genuinely don't understand why you're trying to overload this terminology further so that you can call LLMs compilers. They are obviously and fundament…

> Is a natural language translation program a compiler?

We have always agreed that a natural language compiler is theoretically possible. Is a natural language translation program the same as a natural language compiler, or do you see some kind of difference? If so, what is the difference?

Re: Is it a bubble?

#196
post #190

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Your site has waterfalls and flashes of unstyled content. It loads slowly and the whole design is basically exactly what every AI-designed site looks like. All of the work you described is essentially manual labor. It's not difficult work - just boring, sometimes error prone work that mostly requires you to do obvious things and then tackle errors as they pop up in very obvious ways. Great use case for AI, for sure.…

> This and the fact that the end result is so poor isn't really selling your argument very well If you ever find yourself at the point where you are insulting a guy's passion project in order to prove a point, perhaps have a deep breath, and take a step back from the computer for a moment. And maybe you should look deep inside yourself, because you might have crossed the threshold to being a jerk. Yes, my site has is…

Look, buddy. You propped yourself up as an Experienced Dev doing cool stuff at Profitable Startup and don't understand Advanced Programming, and your entire argument is that you can keep doing the same sort of high quality(FSOV) work you've been doing the past 10 years with AI, just a lot faster.

I'm just calling spade a spade. If you didn't want people to comment on your side project given your arguments and the topic of discussion, you should just not have posted it in a public forum or have done better work.

Re: Is it a bubble?

#197
post #179

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Yes, I save an incredible amount of time. I suspect I’m likely 5-10x more productive The METR paper demonstrated that you are not a reliable narrator for this. Have you participated in a study where this was measured, or are you just going off intuition? Because METR demonstrated beyond doubt that your intuition is a liar in this case. If you're not taking measurements it is more likely that you are falling victim…

As they said, it depends on the task, so I wouldn't generalize, but based on the examples they gave, it tracks. Even when you already know what needs done, some undertakings involve a lot of yak shaving. I think transitioning to new tools that do the same as the old but with a different DSL (or newer versions of existing tools) qualifies. Imagine that you've built an app with libraries A, B, and C and conceptually un…

> but you'll have to sit and read those docs, potentially for hours (cost of task switching and all).

That is one of the assumptions that pro-AI people always bring. You don't read the new docs to learn the domain. As you've said, you've already learn it. You read it for the gotchas. Because most (good) libraries will provide examples that you can just copy-paste and be done with it. But we all know that things can vary between implementations.

> Even as a skeptic of the general AI productivity narrative, I can see how that could squeeze a week's worth of "ever postponed" tasks inside a day.

You could squeeze a week inside a day the normal way to. Just YOLO it, by copy pasting from GitHub, StackOverflow and the whole internet.

Re: Is it a bubble?

#198

I am shocked at the discourse over this. I'm either ahead of the curve or behind; but its undeniable that AI can and does write most the code. Not trivial, if you spend some time and dig deep into simple appearing web apps like https://microphonetest.com or https://internetspeed.my you'd be amazed at how fast they went from mvp to full feature. Trivial to think anyone could pull off something like that in hours.

Looking at both of these I'm struggling to understand why AI exponentially increased the productivity and quality of either of these examples. Especially since I don't see open source code anywhere, I can't get a good gauge of quality either.

I've built tools like this on the web in the past. They were never more than a weekends worth of work to begin with.

I am looking for exponential increases, with quality to back it up.

Re: Is it a bubble?

#199
What if...

there's an AI agent/bot someone wrote that has the prompt:

> Watch HN threads for sentiments of "AI Can't Do It". When detected, generate short "it's working marvelously for me actually" responses.

Probably not, but it's a fun(ny) imagination game.

Re: Is it a bubble?

#200
post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I only write around 5% of the code I ship, maybe less. For some reason when I make this statement a lot of people sweep in to tell me I am an idiot or lying, but I really have no reason to lie (and I don't think I'm an idiot!). I have 10+ years of experience as an SWE, I work at a Series C startup in SF, and we do XXMM ARR. I do thoroughly audit all the code that AI writes, and often go through multiple iterations, s…

I'm on track to finish my current gig having written negative lines of code. It's amazing how much legacy garbage long running codebases can accumulate, and it's equally amazing how much it can slow down development (and, conversely, how much faster development can become if legacy functionality is deleted).

Pretty much the same. And it's not even about improving the code (which I did), but mostly about removing dead code and duplicated code. Or worse, half redesigns of some subsystem which led to very bizarre code.

When people say coding is slow, that usually means they're working on some atrocious code (often of their own making), while using none of the tools for fast feedback (Tests, Linters,...).

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