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The AI wildfire is coming. it's going to be painful and healthy

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Re: The AI wildfire is coming. it's going to be painful and healthy

#191

Post by noncoml »

CraigJPerry wrote: post #111
noncoml wrote: post #98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

$250k+ a year means ~$12k monthly salary. A semi decent apartment in SV will cost you ~$3k Bills(phone, internet, electricity, etc) another $1k. If you are married, groceries at least $1k. Even if we assume you don’t do anything else in life, and you are in perfect health best case scenario would be $6k savings a month or $72k a year. It would take you 10 years to save $720k plus whatever you make from investments. T…

6k month over the past decade is circa 1.7m today depending on which index fund you chose. Assuming a 4% draw down (conventionally agreed to be safe) is over 5.5k a month.

Would you be making $250k ten years ago? Probably not unless you were super high in the corporate ladder.

Re: The AI wildfire is coming. it's going to be painful and healthy

#192

Post by noncoml »

phainopepla2 wrote: post #142
noncoml wrote: post #98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

$250k+ a year means ~$12k monthly salary. A semi decent apartment in SV will cost you ~$3k Bills(phone, internet, electricity, etc) another $1k. If you are married, groceries at least $1k. Even if we assume you don’t do anything else in life, and you are in perfect health best case scenario would be $6k savings a month or $72k a year. It would take you 10 years to save $720k plus whatever you make from investments. T…

$2k per month for groceries and utilities for a married couple is insanely high, in any part of the country.

California actual amounts for 2 people:

$150 phone $200 electricity $200 gas $200 water $80 internet $80 trash

Car insurance? Gas? I’m ridiculously generous when saying you can save $6k per month.

Re: The AI wildfire is coming. it's going to be painful and healthy

#193

Post by noncoml »

phantasmish wrote: post #159
phainopepla2 wrote: post #142

Earlier quoted context omitted.

$2k per month for groceries and utilities for a married couple is insanely high, in any part of the country.

We're probably around $1,200 for groceries and related (cleaning stuff, mostly) in our house, but we're a family of five. Yeah I'd say $2k is nuts for just two people, even today. For a long while we managed to stay around $500-600 but that was before COVID inflation. I dunno how the official inflation rate's as low as it is, we don't buy much that'd be considered "luxury" level (we're not buying caviar, say, and rar…

For groceries I budgeted $1k and $1k for phones, internet, water, electricity, gas, garbage, etc.

Re: The AI wildfire is coming. it's going to be painful and healthy

#194

Post by noncoml »

wakawaka28 wrote: post #157
CraigJPerry wrote: post #111

Earlier quoted context omitted.

6k month over the past decade is circa 1.7m today depending on which index fund you chose. Assuming a 4% draw down (conventionally agreed to be safe) is over 5.5k a month.

Money has lost about about 10% per year in value for the past 5 years. It used to take like a million dollars to retire, but now it's like double that. In addition, nobody really knows how long they might live or how bad inflation could get. Imagine retiring at 50 only to be wiped out, and maybe still on the hook to pay for your own expenses for another 50 years, plus whoever you have in your life who counts on you.

2 millions to retire? Without owning a house? You must be kidding, unless you plan to live only until 60 or move to the cheapest place in the country. Also keep in mind that most health problems start after 50.

Re: The AI wildfire is coming. it's going to be painful and healthy

#195

Post by noncoml »

karlgkk wrote: post #113
noncoml wrote: post #98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

$250k+ a year means ~$12k monthly salary. A semi decent apartment in SV will cost you ~$3k Bills(phone, internet, electricity, etc) another $1k. If you are married, groceries at least $1k. Even if we assume you don’t do anything else in life, and you are in perfect health best case scenario would be $6k savings a month or $72k a year. It would take you 10 years to save $720k plus whatever you make from investments. T…

Rent? Ever heard of equity? If you make 250k you can afford a nice condo. Right away that blows a huge hole in your math. Also $1k month on bills? Groceries too? Judging by your inflated costs for everything, and ann idea that a house (versus more modest accommodations) is what the goal is, you’ve got Lifestyle creep. And, things certainly get a lot easier when your spouse also works.

Do you live in the Bay Area?

Re: The AI wildfire is coming. it's going to be painful and healthy

#196

Post by bmandale »

com2kid wrote: post #105
emp17344 wrote: post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Historically, this is not how technology that improves productivity has affected the economy. I’d encourage you to learn more about economics and the history of automation.

Doing this stuff is literally my job. Large banks have tens of thousands of call center employees and a large % of calls they handle are perfectly solvable with a good AI bot. They are working very hard to cut call center staff as quickly as possible. People don't realize how much a call to customers service costs. Back when I was at MSFT, a call to tech support for our product costs $20 to have someone pick up the p…

This replacement has already happened. Everyone who can has long since replaced their phone support with a set of menus that end in "use the website". When you need to talk to the human you still need to talk to the human.

>One can argue this is a positive, as a customer if I can push a few buttons and issue a voice command to an AI to fix my problem instead of waiting on hold, that is a net positive.

If you could do it through the website then you would be much happier than having to argue with a chatbot. And if you can't do it through the website, there aren't going to let a robot do it on your behalf.

Re: The AI wildfire is coming. it's going to be painful and healthy

#198

Post by [deleted] »

com2kid wrote: post #105
emp17344 wrote: post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Historically, this is not how technology that improves productivity has affected the economy. I’d encourage you to learn more about economics and the history of automation.

Doing this stuff is literally my job. Large banks have tens of thousands of call center employees and a large % of calls they handle are perfectly solvable with a good AI bot. They are working very hard to cut call center staff as quickly as possible. People don't realize how much a call to customers service costs. Back when I was at MSFT, a call to tech support for our product costs $20 to have someone pick up the p…

[deleted]

Re: The AI wildfire is coming. it's going to be painful and healthy

#199

Post by wakawaka28 »

noncoml wrote: post #194
wakawaka28 wrote: post #157

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Money has lost about about 10% per year in value for the past 5 years. It used to take like a million dollars to retire, but now it's like double that. In addition, nobody really knows how long they might live or how bad inflation could get. Imagine retiring at 50 only to be wiped out, and maybe still on the hook to pay for your own expenses for another 50 years, plus whoever you have in your life who counts on you.

2 millions to retire? Without owning a house? You must be kidding, unless you plan to live only until 60 or move to the cheapest place in the country. Also keep in mind that most health problems start after 50.

To be fair, if you believe all the usual assumptions, then you can expect to earn 5% on that money. That would turn into $100k annually which is enough to live just about anywhere. Now, if you retire on time, I think this may also be tax free. So it's not that crazy, except for the unknowable inflation part of the puzzle. If inflation is also 5%, then your effective loss is 5% per year, so you'd be down nearly 100% after 20 years. Housing costs are crazy, but if you don't need to work then you can easily move to a cheaper place to save money.

Re: The AI wildfire is coming. it's going to be painful and healthy

#200

Post by carlosjobim »

DaSHacka wrote: post #180
carlosjobim wrote: post #130

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You are not capable of telling the difference between human translated and AI translated communication.

Source?

Source: Reality. You are probably already communicating with people who you have no idea are using AI to translate their messages.

I have used AI translation professionally for a few years, and between hundreds of people in long conversations, nobody has ever asked if the text has been translated. Before AI translators, you could write at most one message and people would notice.

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