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Covid-19 mRNA Vaccination and 4-Year All-Cause Mortality

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Re: Covid-19 mRNA Vaccination and 4-Year All-Cause Mortality

#191

Post by jmull »

zosima wrote: post #61
eddieroger wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Frame it as the safety of the vaccine, not the efficacy of it. If it was about efficacy, it would lead with the 25% lower risk because of COVID safety. But, these days, there are people who think vaccines are dangerous just because, so saying that taking the vaccine or not has equal mortality puts that to rest (or at least does for those who find science real).

The reduction in all-cause mortality was independent of covid deaths. Which seems to suggest that there was big differences between the groups other than the vaccination. This of course does not change that the vaccine seems mostly safe, but it definitely calls in to question whether the protection against covid death was vaccine-mediated or due to some other difference between the groups. Therefore this paper is mod…

> but quite weak evidence for the vaccine being efficacious

That’s directly contradicted by the results of the study. E.g.,

“Vaccinated individuals had a 74% lower risk of death from severe COVID-19 (weighted hazard ratio [wHR], 0.26 [95% CI, 0.22-0.30]) and a 25% lower risk of all-cause mortality (wHR, 0.75 [95% CI, 0.75-0.76])…”

It’s pretty clear a lot of unvaccinated people who died of covid would be alive today had they gotten vaccinated.

(I would point out the current yearly vaccine they are putting out is potentially a different story since covid is changing and so is the vaccine. I’d talk to my dr about whether to get that or not.)

Re: Covid-19 mRNA Vaccination and 4-Year All-Cause Mortality

#192

Post by biophysboy »

dionian wrote: post #183
biophysboy wrote: post #136

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Antivaxers surpisingly know quite a lot of lingo. What they lack is an understanding of experimental methods.

I'm fine with vaccines, i just dont want my kids to particpate in the experiemnt for a disease that they have 0% chance of dying from.

The case fatality ratio for measles infected children in high-income countries is also low. Nonetheless, we vaccinate children for this infectious disease because morbidity is also bad.

Re: Covid-19 mRNA Vaccination and 4-Year All-Cause Mortality

#193

Post by CrossVR »

cogman10 wrote: post #175
jquaint wrote: post #133

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Unfortunately, one of the only things that is proven to convince vaccine skeptics is when someone from their community dies of a preventable illness. This is a great book on this topic: https://www.amazon.com/Anti-vaxxers-How-Challenge-Misinforme...

It seems like even that's not good enough. I have a few skeptics in my family and have had family members die from covid.

For a lot of people these aren't rational beliefs, they're beliefs based on appeals to emotion. They will only rationally re-evaluate those beliefs if you change the kind of media they consume.

Re: Covid-19 mRNA Vaccination and 4-Year All-Cause Mortality

#194

Post by andreygrehov »

ceejayoz wrote: post #173
andreygrehov wrote: post #169

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Okay, let's run a proof by contradiction. Assume you're right: VAERS is useless for causality and the 10 deaths are not real or not proven. What possible benefits does RFK Jr. get from dramatically restricting a vaccine using data he knows is meaningless and will be shredded in 24 hours by every fact-checker and cardiologist on HN/Twitter/younameit? If he just wanted to scare people for no reason, the rational move i…

> Assume you're right: VAERS is useless for causality… Don't assume. https://vaers.hhs.gov/data/dataguide.html "When evaluating data from VAERS, it is important to note that for any reported event, no cause-and-effect relationship has been established." > What possible benefits does RFK Jr. get from dramatically restricting a vaccine using data he knows is meaningless and will be shredded in 24 hours by every fact-ch…

Duh. VAERS guide says raw reports dont 100% prove causality. Nobody claims they do. That's why FDA's OBPV did the follow-up review of those 96 child deaths and concluded >10 were causal from vaccine myocarditis.

They could've just said "VAERS proves nothing" and left the recommendation unchanged. Instead they wrote it up, leaked it early, and invited the exact scrutiny you're giving it now.

If the conclusion was fake or flimsy, this blows up in their face and RFK looks like a clown. They only take that risk if the OBPV analysis actually held up internally.

Edit: as for the Tylenol, see this https://x.com/HHSGov/status/1970868168995536978

Re: Covid-19 mRNA Vaccination and 4-Year All-Cause Mortality

#195

Post by ceejayoz »

dionian wrote: post #185
sp4cec0wb0y wrote: post #118

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Skeptics" is a very kind term for these people. I bet my life if you polled these people, they have not read any material on the matter.

I thought skepticism was a key part of science

They aren't actually skeptical, though.

Re: Covid-19 mRNA Vaccination and 4-Year All-Cause Mortality

#196

Post by ceejayoz »

andreygrehov wrote: post #194
ceejayoz wrote: post #173

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Assume you're right: VAERS is useless for causality… Don't assume. https://vaers.hhs.gov/data/dataguide.html "When evaluating data from VAERS, it is important to note that for any reported event, no cause-and-effect relationship has been established." > What possible benefits does RFK Jr. get from dramatically restricting a vaccine using data he knows is meaningless and will be shredded in 24 hours by every fact-ch…

Duh. VAERS guide says raw reports dont 100% prove causality. Nobody claims they do. That's why FDA's OBPV did the follow-up review of those 96 child deaths and concluded >10 were causal from vaccine myocarditis. They could've just said "VAERS proves nothing" and left the recommendation unchanged. Instead they wrote it up, leaked it early, and invited the exact scrutiny you're giving it now. If the conclusion was fake…

> That's why FDA's OBPV did the follow-up review of those 96 child deaths and concluded >10 were causal from vaccine myocarditis.

And we're back at the "Hitler provided free things to Jews" technical truth again. This is likely an accurate statement!

But it'd deeply missing important context.

> If the conclusion was fake or flimsy, this blows up in their face and RFK looks like a clown.

This is likely meaningless to the guy who leaves dead bears in Central Park. The biggest political innovation in the last 50 years or so is the discovery that you can look like a clown without much consequence.

> Edit: as for the Tylenol, see this https://x.com/HHSGov/status/1970868168995536978

I don't recommend eating poop, but that doesn't mean it causes autism.

Re: Covid-19 mRNA Vaccination and 4-Year All-Cause Mortality

#197

Post by CrossVR »

kypro wrote: post #165
dalbaugh wrote: post #5

Unfortunately, I don't think any additional evidence will convince vaccine skeptics of the safety of mRNA vaccines

I think people throw these accusations around way too broadly. There is a small subset of weirdos who think the Covid/mRNA vaccines contain microchips or were designed kill off some percentage of the population. But I think there's another, much larger group who might care a lot about their health to the point where they don't even drink from plastic bottles, and who when presented with a novel vaccine which was deve…

The problem with the myocarditis risk in young men is that they undergo exactly the same risk from the actual covid infection. And given the fact that it was already obviously going to be endemic it really wasn't much of a calculation. It was basically: You either roll the dice now or you roll the dice when you inevitably get covid.

Re: Covid-19 mRNA Vaccination and 4-Year All-Cause Mortality

#198

Post by emtel »

From the paper:

> The main causes of death were cancer (769 and 853 cases per million in vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals, respectively), external causes of mortality (493 and 597 cases per million, including, among others, unintentional injuries, such as transportation crashes, falls, and drownings, as well as suicides or self-inflicted injuries) and diseases of the circulatory system (282 and 367 cases per million) (Table 2). Vaccinated individuals had a lower risk of death compared with unvaccinated individuals regardless of the cause of death.

I don't think mRNA vaccination is likely to cause an increase in all-cause mortality. But this study is clearly comparing two radically different populations, and could not show a mortality increase from mRNA vaccination even if one existed.

Re: Covid-19 mRNA Vaccination and 4-Year All-Cause Mortality

#199

Post by stocksinsmocks »

zosima wrote: post #61
eddieroger wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Frame it as the safety of the vaccine, not the efficacy of it. If it was about efficacy, it would lead with the 25% lower risk because of COVID safety. But, these days, there are people who think vaccines are dangerous just because, so saying that taking the vaccine or not has equal mortality puts that to rest (or at least does for those who find science real).

The reduction in all-cause mortality was independent of covid deaths. Which seems to suggest that there was big differences between the groups other than the vaccination. This of course does not change that the vaccine seems mostly safe, but it definitely calls in to question whether the protection against covid death was vaccine-mediated or due to some other difference between the groups. Therefore this paper is mod…

I don’t think it’s possible to know anything conclusive about the safety for a few decades and a generation or two of affected kids can be observed. Given that finding harm would embarrass important aristocrats, I don’t think that evidence would ever be found in the foreseeable future. That mRNA and lipid nano particles were never found to be safe until the exact moment of crisis is awfully convenient for its investors.

I say decades because of the study below. Certainly, the authors could have published it for engagement bait or malice or some reason.

https://www.gavinpublishers.com/article/view/detection-of-pf...

Re: Covid-19 mRNA Vaccination and 4-Year All-Cause Mortality

#200

Post by biophysboy »

laichzeit0 wrote: post #36
dalbaugh wrote: post #5

Unfortunately, I don't think any additional evidence will convince vaccine skeptics of the safety of mRNA vaccines

Unfortunately, this is an observational study and when you get to the confounding part, they kind of shrug their shoulders and say “well, we included a bunch of covariates that should reduce make the bias go away”, but there’s no causal diagram so we have no idea how they reasoned about this. If you’ve read even something layman friendly like Pearl’s Book of Why you should be feeling nervous about this.

Establishing a causal graph like this is not realistic for medical studies. Luckily we have multiple RCTs
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