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Peter Thiel sells off all Nvidia stock, stirring bubble fears

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Re: Peter Thiel sells off all Nvidia stock, stirring bubble fears

#191

Post by javier2 »

ethbr1 wrote: post #160
drumhead wrote: post #139

Earlier quoted context omitted.

APPL is the best bet as it doesnt have any exposure to AI. MSFT has spent a truckload of money on datacentres, if AI doesnt deliver they're going to face a huge drag on earnings because of the overinvestment.

Microsoft has the same struggle as Facebook and Google. If AI matures into the next big thing, it risks wiping them out of their dominant positions if they don't spend to keep pace. If it doesn't, then they just blew a bunch of money but are still dominant players, with an existential threat in the rearview. Given the relative risks, they'd be foolish not to pump some of their cash flow into AI for a few years until…

Meta and Alphabet are mostly ads + desperately trying to find other ways to make as much money as ads

Re: Peter Thiel sells off all Nvidia stock, stirring bubble fears

#192

Post by spwa4 »

NaomiLehman wrote: post #169
garspin wrote: post #147

Making $$$ & keeping them are 2 different skills. He's demonstrated the former 16B times, now he's demonstrating the latter. The big downside risk I see for Nvidia is a garage startup inventing a more efficient AI algo.... that only needs 20W to run.

still a more efficient algo would be better run on gigawatts of compute

Does it? There's no guarantee that algorithms receive any benefit from scale. Some don't.

And of course, in support of such an algorithm existing you have humans. Clearly AGI is present in human minds, and it apparently runs on about 20W of power.

Re: Peter Thiel sells off all Nvidia stock, stirring bubble fears

#193

Post by kibibu »

linhns wrote: post #189
kibibu wrote: post #150

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Reading his recent "Greta Thunberg Is The Antichrist" stuff leads me to believe the Peter Thiel: - Is deeply unscientific, coming across as a highfalutin paranoid QAnon; and - Has zero self-awareness That said, he has plenty of money and connections, so moves like these are likely well justified.

I’m not sure that he will succeed with this move, but his article on Greta is absolute spot on, and I’m saying this as a guy who do not really like Peter

It's spot on to say that Greta Thunberg is the literal manifestation of the biblical antichrist, heralding the end of days?

Re: Peter Thiel sells off all Nvidia stock, stirring bubble fears

#197

Post by Libidinalecon »

dehrmann wrote: post #121
dmix wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah everyone wants a conspiracy when the obvious signal is that he already made insane amounts of money off the stock spiking so high and he wants to diversify it on other stuff instead of continuing to gamble on a big one. Which is also what the article says he is doing.

And Nvidia has a target on its back right now. It's priced like it's the only game in town, but AMD, Google, Meta and Intel have varying degrees of competing chips for AI use.

Even the shoeshine boy is giving stock tips about the AI bubble and selling NVDA.

I think we are in an insane LLM/compute bubble but I just put long trades on in Palantir and Nvidia the past few days.

Sentiment is just so one sided right now.

Re: Peter Thiel sells off all Nvidia stock, stirring bubble fears

#198

Post by EarlKing »

rafale wrote: post #48
thrwaway55 wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Burry was underwater on that trade though and likely did it to avoid some paperwork revealing positions. He folded because he can't time it, if he was confident he was right he wouldn't have folded and we'd have another movie about him.

Did he close his position or just shutdown the fund?

He shut down the whole fund. There was a press release about it a few days ago.

Re: Peter Thiel sells off all Nvidia stock, stirring bubble fears

#199

Post by mondrian »

brador wrote: post #178
mondrian wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So this 'portfolio' is <200M on a net worth of 16B? This is like someone worth 1M selling $600 worth of stock.

A 200M sale on a 16B net worth is like someone worth 1M selling about 12.5k of stock.

I was off by a zero, thanks! He sold about 100M of NVDA on 16B net worth which would be 6.25k on 1M.

Re: Peter Thiel sells off all Nvidia stock, stirring bubble fears

#200

Post by int_19h »

TheAlchemist wrote: post #148
int_19h wrote: post #110

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I rather suspect that in the current economic climate, a trillion dollar bailout of Big Tech would very quickly translate to riots in the streets.

Frankly, I would be happy if riots in the streets happen (if there is a bailout of Big Tech in the first place). What's going on recently with OpenAI publicly, and probably most of the 'AI' players not publicly, is disgusting - it's a bubble, everyone and their mother knows it, and these guys try to save their asses by asking for governement backing before the bubble even pops. Privatize gains, socialize losses... It…

Oh, don't get me wrong, if and when this happens, I'll join the riots.

And I'm not even anti-AI; I genuinely believe that, as a technology, it is a major advancement that can and should be put to so many good uses. Which is emphatically not what the people in charge are doing.

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