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Oracle hit hard in Wall Street's tech sell-off over its AI bet

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Re: Oracle hit hard in Wall Street's tech sell-off over its AI bet

#191

Post by uhfraid »

mjr00 wrote: post #36
JCM9 wrote: post #3

I’m bullish on AI as tech but folks are starting to sniff out that the financials of everything going on at the moment aren’t sustainable for much longer. I hope we have more of a “reality correction” than full blown bubble bursting, but the data is increasingly looking like we’re about to have a massive implosion that wipes out a generation of startups and sets the VC ecosystem back a decade.

The most sobering statistic I've seen is that the entire combined amount of consumer spending on AI products is currently less than the revenue of Genshin Impact.

wow, that is alarming

Re: Oracle hit hard in Wall Street's tech sell-off over its AI bet

#192

Post by dangus »

outside1234 wrote: post #147

It just seems so obvious that all of these companies are going to unwind and yet I don't know how to avoid being damaged by this in my retirement funds in the S&P 500. Hopefully all of this happens before Open AI can be flogged to the public in an IPO large enough to get into the S&P 500 -- in which OpenAI then goes to zero

If you aren’t close to retirement you don’t worry about damage, and if you are close to retirement your funds are hopefully already stuffed into munch more conservative funds.

Long term investment strategy assumes and welcomes volatility to maximize returns.

Continuous investment in a 401k means that every bubble burst lowers your cost basis (buying stocks at a “discount” post-burst, lowering your average price paid).

Re: Oracle hit hard in Wall Street's tech sell-off over its AI bet

#193

Post by neom »

caminante wrote: post #190
neom wrote: post #135

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm Canadian and I built DigitalOcean, there is a data center in Toronto because I decided. I am one of many Canadians who have built scaled infrastructure and think this is a nightmare. Many competent people at telus and bell behind the scenes believe it or not. They should have, and still should, form a crown corp and get a bunch of us older infrastructure people to help put it together. We have crown corps for thi…

I'm not opposed to CrownCorps and regulated energy markets. The most recent rumblings in the US clamor for govt. infra stepin to compete with China on power/permitting intervention. Makes sense. That said, Cohere only got a couple hundred million from CA and the DC is being built "domestic" in CA. That's not enough? Sounds like you're knowledgeable about the skills gap of do-ers in CA govt, but I'd be concerned about…

What crown corps do you currently think are being run incompetently??

Re: Oracle hit hard in Wall Street's tech sell-off over its AI bet

#194

Post by oblio »

leopoldj wrote: post #181
daveguy wrote: post #130

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Hah. Well, back in ~2004 we had a different name for "creative accounting" to generate "revenue" while very little money chnages hands. Back then we called it fraud. But I guess terminology changes.

This kind of circular deals are very common and doesn't violate any laws. It's the magnitude and prevalence of it in the AI sector that flashes a warning sign.

A lot of stuff doesn't violate any laws until it does. Laws are created after the crimes have already happened. That's why we have the letter of law vs the spirit of the law.

Re: Oracle hit hard in Wall Street's tech sell-off over its AI bet

#195

Post by Libidinalecon »

refulgentis wrote: post #86
danielbln wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

_sigh_ Yes LLMs hallucinate, no it's no longer 2022 and ChatGPT (gpt-3.5) is the pinnacle of LLM tech. Modern LLMs in an agentic loop can self correct, you still need to be on guard but if used correctly (yes, yes, holding it wrong etc. etc.) can do many, many tasks that do not suffer from "need to check every single time".

Apologies that you're taking on the chin here. Generally, I'll just skip fantastical HN threads with a critical mass of BS like this, with pity, rather than an attempt to share (for more on that c.f. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45929335 ) Been on HN 16 years and never seen anything like the pack of people who will come out to tell you it doesn't work and they'll never pay for it and it's wrong 50% of the tim…

I just totally disagree.

I want AI to be as strong as possible. I want AGI, I especially want super intelligence. I will figure out a new and better job if you give me super intelligence.

The problem is not cognitive dissonance, the problem is we don't have what we are pretending we have.

We have the dot com bubble but with a bunch of Gopher servers and the web browser as this theoretical idea yet to be invented and that is the bull case. The bear case is we have the dot com bubble but still haven't figured out how to build the actual internet. Massive investment in rotary phone capacity because everyone in the future is going to be using so much phone dial up bandwidth when we finally figure out how to build the internet.

Re: Oracle hit hard in Wall Street's tech sell-off over its AI bet

#196

Post by Libidinalecon »

danielbln wrote: post #133
refulgentis wrote: post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Apologies that you're taking on the chin here. Generally, I'll just skip fantastical HN threads with a critical mass of BS like this, with pity, rather than an attempt to share (for more on that c.f. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45929335 ) Been on HN 16 years and never seen anything like the pack of people who will come out to tell you it doesn't work and they'll never pay for it and it's wrong 50% of the tim…

Yeah, it really pulled the veil away, didn't it? So much dismissiveness and uninformed takes, from a crowd that had been driving automation forward for years and years and you'd think they'd get more familiar with these new class of tools, warts and all.

I just can't understand how anyone who actually uses the tools all the time can say this.

Re: Oracle hit hard in Wall Street's tech sell-off over its AI bet

#197

Post by danielbln »

Libidinalecon wrote: post #196
danielbln wrote: post #133

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, it really pulled the veil away, didn't it? So much dismissiveness and uninformed takes, from a crowd that had been driving automation forward for years and years and you'd think they'd get more familiar with these new class of tools, warts and all.

I just can't understand how anyone who actually uses the tools all the time can say this.

Say what exactly? Driving automation of all kind with Claude Code level tools has been incredibly fruitful. And once you spent sufficient time with them you know when and where they fall on their faces and when they provide real tangible reproducible benefits. I could not care less for the AI hype or bubble or whatever, I just use what I see works as I'm staring these tools down for 10h+/day.

The problem is that these conversations are increasingly drifting apart as everyone has different priors and experiences with this stuff. Some are stuck in 2023, some have so very specialized tasks that it's more work whipping the agent in line that it saves, others found a ton of automation cases where this stuff provides clear net benefits.

Don't care for AGI, AI girlfriends or LLM slop, but strap 'em in a loop and build a cage for them to operate in without lobotomizing themselves and there's absolutely something to be gained there (for me, at least).

Re: Oracle hit hard in Wall Street's tech sell-off over its AI bet

#198

Post by siliconwrath »

giwook wrote: post #189
kjreact wrote: post #148

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Companies with high morality, do those even exist? Which one of the big tech companies do you expect to work towards benefiting humanity instead of focusing on turning a profit by any means?

Patagonia. That said, they are the only example I can think of.

Maybe Costco?

Re: Oracle hit hard in Wall Street's tech sell-off over its AI bet

#199

Post by tru3_power »

underlipton wrote: post #67
tru3_power wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can you elaborate on the mechanical point you mentioned? And by someone needed collateral, does that mean whoever it was bought ORCL at that time to hold as collateral? How do you even figure that out?

>Can you elaborate on the mechanical point you mentioned? Not really, because I don't really understand the specifics myself. I guess it's a situation where you either believe the conspiracy theories or you don't. I've still yet to have someone explain how a company like Oracle could jump 40% in a day and it not be either Dot Com Bust-level speculation, or else someone holding Oracle needing the company to be at a ce…

I circled back to this, The only mechanics I can think of and I’m not sure if it’s really even really a thing (maybe someone can chime in) is that market makers buying shares to cover their calls or something along those lines? How does one even really trace this type of transaction?

Re: Oracle hit hard in Wall Street's tech sell-off over its AI bet

#200

Post by caminante »

neom wrote: post #193
caminante wrote: post #190

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not opposed to CrownCorps and regulated energy markets. The most recent rumblings in the US clamor for govt. infra stepin to compete with China on power/permitting intervention. Makes sense. That said, Cohere only got a couple hundred million from CA and the DC is being built "domestic" in CA. That's not enough? Sounds like you're knowledgeable about the skills gap of do-ers in CA govt, but I'd be concerned about…

What crown corps do you currently think are being run incompetently??

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