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Tesla reveals Supercharger network, Free Fill Ups

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Re: Tesla reveals Supercharger network, Free Fill Ups

#191

Post by confluence »

ams6110 wrote: post #189
confluence wrote: post #184

This is it - the tipping point has finally arrived. This is a killer combination of rapidly falling prices in solar PV (thank you China/Kyoto protocol/Global warming), meeting the falling prices of Li-ion batteries (thank you astonishingly successful decade of laptops/smartphones/tablets), meets a cyclic economic boom (thank you GFC), meets rising gas prices (thank you OPEC/cheap oil/peak oil), meets anti-carbon ince…

You are smart enough to know the risks of having a significant fraction of your net worth in one asset, so I'll spare you the lecture there. Tipping point? No, I don't think so. It's progress, and it's good news, but 30 minutes to recharge is still a LONG time compared to the two minutes a petroleum-fueled vehicle takes, and the best of those can go several multiples of the Teslas range between fuelings.

I'm obviously biased - so please take everything I state with a grain of salt.

My tipping point is not a "singular moment" or "lightbulb" - but merely the slow agglomeration over the next decade of multiple convergent waves that just happen to put wind in the sails of the only company able to execute on this plan at this point in time.

Diversification is overrated. When crises happen - all correlations go to one - everything goes down simultaneously. Also my returns are cut in half :D.

Re: Tesla reveals Supercharger network, Free Fill Ups

#192

Post by confluence »

chucknelson wrote: post #190
confluence wrote: post #184

This is it - the tipping point has finally arrived. This is a killer combination of rapidly falling prices in solar PV (thank you China/Kyoto protocol/Global warming), meeting the falling prices of Li-ion batteries (thank you astonishingly successful decade of laptops/smartphones/tablets), meets a cyclic economic boom (thank you GFC), meets rising gas prices (thank you OPEC/cheap oil/peak oil), meets anti-carbon ince…

How about diversification?

Diversification doesn't work. It not only leaves your risk essentially the same in case of catastrophic market failure (see GFC/debt crisis - bonds are safe RIGHT?).

It also cuts your returns in half and brings you down along with everyone else - and gives you a false sense of security - nothing is safe - not even shorting the world (end of the world/counter party/regulatory risks).

As an investor you must think long and hard about the future/companies/investments make very few super high signal, super high impact trades/positions/companies that you know inside and out (financials/GDP winds etc).

I'd rather invest in 20 companies I know inside and out than 500 mediocre ones that I know nothing about. But that's me - most people don't know anything and they SHOULD diversify.

If you don't know anything - the best thing you could do is assume no better than random.

Re: Tesla reveals Supercharger network, Free Fill Ups

#194

Post by kamaal »

sien wrote: post #185
s_henry_paulson wrote: post #167

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Electric cars have improved immensely. - Better battery performance and lifespan. - Improved charging time and technology. - Distance cars can travel in a single charge. - Increased torque and horsepower. - Affordability and increases is mass production. And most importantly, increases in the necessary infrastructure to support long-distance travel (exactly the topic at hand) Your comment is very uninformed.

Did you read his link? The point the guy makes is completely correct. Let's say tomorrow some grad student gets fusion going at a very low price. The best way to use this to power cars would be to use it to create a fuel with a high energy density. If you had 'free energy' you'd extract C02 from the atmosphere and turn it into a hydrocarbon. For more info look at: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_density and this…

>>Well, how are you going to make the airplanes fly? Battery. Batteries are pretty heavy.

"Heavier than air flying machines are impossible"

-Lord Kevin.

Yet we have them today, thanks to a phenomenon in physics called Bernoulli's principle- http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bernoulli%27s_principle

"The significant problems we face cannot be solved at the same level of thinking we were at when we created them" - Albert Einstein.

Why, O why do we think that problems have to, must be and will be solved at the same level and direction of thought the problems were framed in? Besides the whole point of a disruptive technology is that the solutions generally come as a bolt from the blue, completely surprising even the biggest experts in those areas. Directions from which those solutions come from are so radically different paths than originally they would come from. And this has not happened once, twice but many times.

Over confidence in science especially with regards to the negative aspects is not a good direction to begin with.

Re: Tesla reveals Supercharger network, Free Fill Ups

#195

Post by ams6110 »

ericd wrote: post #56
w1ntermute wrote: post #51

Come on, 30 minutes for a charge that'll get you just 180 miles? I just checked the 2012 Honda Civic specs[0], you can fill up with 13.2 gallons in 2 or 3 minutes, and that'll get you 13.2*32 mpg combined = 422 miles. There's no way this is gonna work unless the charging process is much faster or they swap batteries instead. 0: http://www.edmunds.com/honda/civic/2012/road-test-specs.html

Are you comparing charging stats unironically and saying it's a dealbreaker if it's not just as good as the incumbent in this category? It's really not that terrible to stop for 30 minutes after 3 hours of driving. Long road trips just went from wildly impractical to almost convenient, assuming the chargers are well distributed. You could compare the 0-60 times of the Civic and say it's unacceptable that it takes the…

It's really not that terrible to stop for 30 minutes after 3 hours of driving.

Depends on the driver I guess. When I'm driving I want to get where I'm going. I stop only for fuel and bathroom breaks (ideally these are combined). If I'm driving more than 8 hours I might stop for a meal. Stopping for 30 minutes ever three hours is not something I'd find acceptable on a long trip.

That said, it does seem that Tesla are getting ever closer to making a practical (if not affordable) commuter electric car (for reasonably short commutes).

Re: Tesla reveals Supercharger network, Free Fill Ups

#196

Post by jlebrech »

TeMPOraL wrote: post #137

Here's a thought (disclaimer - IANAEE): Could we charge electric vehicles while driving? Could we bury, say, some coils under the highways and have cars have a transformer on board to draw power from the road? That would remove the need for charging stations on a long-distance trips almost completely.

another option would be to have a laser receiver and have laser turrets along the motorway blasting energy at them.

Re: Tesla reveals Supercharger network, Free Fill Ups

#197

Post by ams6110 »

confluence wrote: post #191
ams6110 wrote: post #189

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You are smart enough to know the risks of having a significant fraction of your net worth in one asset, so I'll spare you the lecture there. Tipping point? No, I don't think so. It's progress, and it's good news, but 30 minutes to recharge is still a LONG time compared to the two minutes a petroleum-fueled vehicle takes, and the best of those can go several multiples of the Teslas range between fuelings.

I'm obviously biased - so please take everything I state with a grain of salt. My tipping point is not a "singular moment" or "lightbulb" - but merely the slow agglomeration over the next decade of multiple convergent waves that just happen to put wind in the sails of the only company able to execute on this plan at this point in time. Diversification is overrated. When crises happen - all correlations go to one - ev…

Diversification is overrated

Sorry you are just flat out wrong. But if you're OK with it, I'm OK with it.

Re: Tesla reveals Supercharger network, Free Fill Ups

#198

Post by alexholehouse »

mistercow wrote: post #115
alexholehouse wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I remember talking to a friend who worked for an oil company, who told me that the shops at gas stations actually make 2-3 times more than the revenue generated from the gas. If you were an oil company which dealt exclusively with the consumer (which of course non of them are) you would in fact be a catering business which sold gas on the side.

>I remember talking to a friend who worked for an oil company, who told me that the shops at gas stations actually make 2-3 times more than the revenue generated from the gas That is completely impossible. Maybe profit , but not revenue. Even my sedan with a 17 gallon tank costs more to fill up than even a pack-a-day smoker with a lottery addiction and a love of energy drinks is likely to spend at the shop.

Sorry - just a typo, meant profit. It was late.

Re: Tesla reveals Supercharger network, Free Fill Ups

#199

Post by kamaal »

reitzensteinm wrote: post #176
jaggederest wrote: post #173

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Honestly, electric cars are never going to be completely practical for people with a daily commute beyond 150 miles or so. But if you're commuting 3 hours a day total, you have bigger issues with your life, to be honest. Move closer to where you commute!

Never? You're telling me that in a thousand years, we won't have electric cars able to sustain a 300 mile daily commute? This isn't a discussion of if . It's a discussion of when .

I think he is saying even a thousand years from now 300 mile daily commute even though possible is not practical on the part of the person traveling.

Re: Tesla reveals Supercharger network, Free Fill Ups

#200

Post by maxerickson »

sliverstorm wrote: post #82
Osiris wrote: post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

At $0.11/kWh, the Roadster at 53kWh would take almost $6 to completely fill. Though if these stations charge using solar power and store the power in a battery pack to discharge when a car hooks up, it could potentially cost them a lot less than $0.11/kWh, depending on the cost of building the station itself.

Tack on to that the increased capacity electric vehicles are going to have to have, as well as the increased electricity prices I am expecting when ten million Americans are charging their cars.

Current U.S. energy use is ~ 10 billion kw-h per day.

1 billion kw-h / day more is a nice big tick on that, but I'm not sure it would drive prices a whole lot.

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