People are bringing up the AMD deal but isn't that giving it too much credence? The deal hasn't had any material consequences yet apart from stock market fluctuations. The bigger problem for me is that AMD doesn't seem like is going to be a player of note in the AI sphere. So this deal like many other big money AI deals look like optics to me.
> AMD doesn't seem like is going to be a player of note in the AI sphere. I thought AMD is well positioned in the inference space? They have high VRAM, somewhat high connectivity, already shipping pods that are pretty ok for inference? Training is still dominated by nvda and their CUDA moat, but there's an increased need for scalable inference, and that should fit AMD well. Am I wrong in thinking that?
OpenAI, Nvidia fuel $1T AI market with web of circular deals
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Re: OpenAI, Nvidia fuel $1T AI market with web of circular deals
#192This is fueled by the parabolic token usage. If token usage continues to grow parabolic, then these are the most genius deals made. If token usage declines because of high prices, look at what happened to SBF.
I notice that when I ask ChatGPT a question the answers I get back seem more verbose than they were a year ago. Where a 1-2 line response would be sufficient GPT delivers a sprawling essay. Overall the value of the answer has probably gone down, but tokens are up.
Re: OpenAI, Nvidia fuel $1T AI market with web of circular deals
#193Earlier quoted context omitted.
This is How Larry Elisson beat Musk for a short while although Oracle was struggling.' The deals among Oracle, Nvidia, and OpenAI have raised concerns about their circular and potentially risky nature. Oracle is reportedly spending tens of billions on Nvidia's advanced chips, Nvidia plans to invest up to $100 billion in OpenAI, and OpenAI uses Oracle's cloud infrastructure through Microsoft's Azure, creating a closed…
If this means that the fall of OpenAI will cause Oracle and Nvidia to crash and downsize, bubbles aren't completely bad.
Re: OpenAI, Nvidia fuel $1T AI market with web of circular deals
#194Earlier quoted context omitted.
It's worth noting Elisson is 2 years older than Trump. What's he going to do with all that money, and what does he care for the risk it's bad or shady? Worst case, he got to be #1 for a bit for a few dozen billion, best case he's hoping AGI will extend his life before he croaks.
What does Ellisons personal wealth have to do with this? The concern is that the circular pattern of shifting money between these companies is artificially inflating the stock market to heights that will crash very very badly when this bubble finally pops.
The implied equity risky premium is getting pretty low - a sign of greed.
Re: OpenAI, Nvidia fuel $1T AI market with web of circular deals
#195https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y4iBdIq0aaY
I think it serves as a good commentary.
Re: OpenAI, Nvidia fuel $1T AI market with web of circular deals
#196This reminds me of around 2002 when I wrote an article looking at how all the web behemoths at the time were claiming profitability through ad sales, but actually the vast majority of ads were from one web behemoth advertising on an other's site and vice versa.
Though I guess with high velocity of money circulating in tight loops, everyone involved can feel rich. 1 million dollars changing hands once per day can potentially mint 365 'millionaires' during the course of a year. If they just pass it back and forth among themselves to buy each other's stocks and products and don't let that money escape their network to actually pay for something useful, they can all be millionaires... On paper.
Not to mention how relatively small amounts of money, moving at high velocity, can inflate asset prices... On Alice's birthday, Bob can buy 100 shares of Alice's shell company at a price of $10 per share. If Alice owns 1 million shares of the company (which she founded), it means that Alice's net worth is at least $10 million... It cost Bob only $1000 to give Alice a net worth of $10 million. Now imagine that same $1000 moving in and out of that company's stock, traded 1000 times per day between various people. With just $1000 circulating back-and-forth at high frequency (A.K.A. high-frequency trading), you can generate a trade volume of $1 million per day... So it all seems reasonable; a company with a $10 million valuation with $1 million daily trade volume... Nothing suspicious. So you can basically start a shell company and fake everything; from the market cap, to the trade volume; using only a relatively small amount of money. This is what they were doing in the early days of crypto.
The same money can hop around in circles between an insane number of people when it's just 'revenue' because revenue is not taxed (after expenses). Only profits are taxed... But the same money, as profit, can barely hop between 6 people before it's taxed down to just 10% of its original number. High-velocity revenue can severely distort people's perceptions of the market, especially in the era of media filter bubbles.
Re: OpenAI, Nvidia fuel $1T AI market with web of circular deals
#197Earlier quoted context omitted.
If this means that the fall of OpenAI will cause Oracle and Nvidia to crash and downsize, bubbles aren't completely bad.
You can't discount the impact this will have on global stock markets and what that may do to both individuals and, more importantly, pension funds, as a large swath of people are retiring
Re: OpenAI, Nvidia fuel $1T AI market with web of circular deals
#198Earlier quoted context omitted.
If this means that the fall of OpenAI will cause Oracle and Nvidia to crash and downsize, bubbles aren't completely bad.
You can't discount the impact this will have on global stock markets and what that may do to both individuals and, more importantly, pension funds, as a large swath of people are retiring
Re: OpenAI, Nvidia fuel $1T AI market with web of circular deals
#199Earlier quoted context omitted.
That's only really value if the chips are useful and if there are people buying the chips for something they want to do with them. It's entirely based on the perception that LLM training & inference is here to stay at ever growing scales when the shortcomings of Artificial Dreaming are increasingly scrutinized. Not all businesses want to end up paying refunds to their clients like Deloitte [1] because the LLM halluci…
> It's entirely based on the perception that LLM training & inference is here to stay at ever growing scales when the shortcomings of Artificial Dreaming are increasingly scrutinized. Not all businesses want to end up paying refunds to their clients like Deloitte [1] because the LLM hallucinated crap into their reports (and they failed to correct it). This assumes Deloitte didn't make more $$$ from the deal by "outso…
Re: OpenAI, Nvidia fuel $1T AI market with web of circular deals
#200Earlier quoted context omitted.
> It's entirely based on the perception that LLM training & inference is here to stay at ever growing scales when the shortcomings of Artificial Dreaming are increasingly scrutinized. Not all businesses want to end up paying refunds to their clients like Deloitte [1] because the LLM hallucinated crap into their reports (and they failed to correct it). This assumes Deloitte didn't make more $$$ from the deal by "outso…
You haven’t brought in the side costs into your analysis
And you haven't considered that Deloitte might get this money some other way anyway. It's been budgeted and needs to be spent by the government department for this financial year. They'll find another project to hand out.