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Jeff Bezos says AI is in a bubble but society will get 'gigantic' benefits

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Re: Jeff Bezos says AI is in a bubble but society will get 'gigantic' benefits

#191

Post by mkl »

yeasku wrote: post #117
mkl wrote: post #111

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It was founded 1998, very much dotcom era, and had no significant web 2.0 products for years after that.

And the term 2.0 was coined in 1999.

Right, but the term and the concept didn't really take off until years later. From https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Web_2.0:

> The term "Web 2.0" was coined by Darcy DiNucci, an information architecture consultant, in her January 1999 article "Fragmented Future" [...] her "2.0" designation refers to the next version of the Web that does not directly relate to the term's current use.

> The term Web 2.0 did not resurface until 2002.

Google's first big Web 2.0 products were GMail (beta launched in 2004, just before Google's IPO) and Google Maps (2005).

Re: Jeff Bezos says AI is in a bubble but society will get 'gigantic' benefits

#192

Post by dmix »

pessimizer wrote: post #169
dmix wrote: post #163

Earlier quoted context omitted.

HN said the same thing about Uber forever.

Uber didn't invent anything, they drove taxis out of business then jacked up the prices, squeezed the workers, and now everybody is riding around in regular people's crappy cars for more than a cab cost. And now I need a phone and to maintain my relationship with these two crappy companies rather than to wave at the street (which is what I used to do to get a ride.) That was literally what everybody said would happen…

It completely changed an industry. Just because you don't like the current version doesn't mean it wasn't a major innovation. Uber was just the main player in scaling and marketing a new model across the entire globe, which was a huge and costly endeavor.

LLMs have already changed how software can be written and a thousands of other business/consumer usecases, these companies are just battling it out and finding the most profitable niches. It will be a major business for a long time and the technology will mature and plateau pretty quickly. If R&D doesn't scale economically, it will just slow down and existing models will be heavily optimized to be cheaper to run.

The dot com boom resulted in very few real industries and comparing the two is not very useful.

Re: Jeff Bezos says AI is in a bubble but society will get 'gigantic' benefits

#193

Post by ghaff »

goalieca wrote: post #152
monero-xmr wrote: post #148

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Undeniably better off in every single way. Minimum is that the price of long distance phone calls is now zero, let alone video calls. Being able to speak to family and see them nonstop is incredible.

And yet, when we are with family and friends, we’re on the damn phone!

Do people actually visit family in-person at least less often? And to the degree they augment rare family in-person visits with a lot of phone calls and/or video calls.

I can believe a lot of friend get togethers IRL have been replaced with video calls. There's a tradeoff. I have a group of older friends and we still get together in-person but Zoom calls are a nice adder.

I'm in a few organizations where we also find Zoom a nice alternative to people schlepping somewhere for an hour meeting that mostly works as well online--and we still have a few physical get-togethers over the course of the year.

Re: Jeff Bezos says AI is in a bubble but society will get 'gigantic' benefits

#194

Post by rogerrogerr »

ok_dad wrote: post #189
rogerrogerr wrote: post #187

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sure, but who do they sell stuff to if no one has a job? We’re on the brink of some _very_ unexplored branches of human behavior.

Imagine a few billionaires pay big bucks to keep AGI to themselves and let the rest of us die on the vine.

Okay, but why would we die on the vine? Wouldn’t we just… make a parallel economy without the AGI? The world works today without AGI.

Re: Jeff Bezos says AI is in a bubble but society will get 'gigantic' benefits

#195

Post by martinohansen »

MountDoom wrote: post #115
DrNosferatu wrote: post #113

Society as a whole, or one percenters like him?

Bezos is a 0.0001-percenter. Most of people on HN are probably in the top 1% to 5%. You're in the top 10% in the US if you make $170k/yr.

True. But that’s income, to be top 10% in your net worth you need 1.5m USD and 12m USD for top 1%

Re: Jeff Bezos says AI is in a bubble but society will get 'gigantic' benefits

#196

Post by lemonlearnings »

rogerrogerr wrote: post #187
moralestapia wrote: post #185

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sure, but you're not one of them.

Sure, but who do they sell stuff to if no one has a job? We’re on the brink of some _very_ unexplored branches of human behavior.

Bots. Agentic consumers.

Re: Jeff Bezos says AI is in a bubble but society will get 'gigantic' benefits

#197

Post by yeyeyeyeyeyeyee »

People in the comments seem to have forgotten about, or never lived through, the dot com bubble. Amazon’s shares fell from $113 to $6 in 2000. So yes, the internet survived and some companies did well after, but a lot of people were hurt badly.

Re: Jeff Bezos says AI is in a bubble but society will get 'gigantic' benefits

#198

Post by Buttons840 »

rogerrogerr wrote: post #187
moralestapia wrote: post #185

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sure, but you're not one of them.

Sure, but who do they sell stuff to if no one has a job? We’re on the brink of some _very_ unexplored branches of human behavior.

That's the key. The poor are useful to business so long as they are a source of money and power. What happens if the time comes that the poor have nothing the rich want?

Re: Jeff Bezos says AI is in a bubble but society will get 'gigantic' benefits

#199

Post by lemonlearnings »

rogerrogerr wrote: post #194
ok_dad wrote: post #189

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Imagine a few billionaires pay big bucks to keep AGI to themselves and let the rest of us die on the vine.

Okay, but why would we die on the vine? Wouldn’t we just… make a parallel economy without the AGI? The world works today without AGI.

Parallel economies are banned. Try making a new currency in the US.

Re: Jeff Bezos says AI is in a bubble but society will get 'gigantic' benefits

#200

Post by throw3141592 »

rogerrogerr wrote: post #187
moralestapia wrote: post #185

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sure, but you're not one of them.

Sure, but who do they sell stuff to if no one has a job? We’re on the brink of some _very_ unexplored branches of human behavior.

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