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Europe Can No Longer Ignore That It's Under Russian Attack

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Re: Europe Can No Longer Ignore That It's Under Russian Attack

#191

No one listened, no one prepared. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Munich_speech_of_Vladim... It’s not like there was any warning signs… https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russo-Georgian_War https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malaysia_Airlines_Flight_17 Bullies exploit weaknesses. Time to grow a pair.

I have always found the summary of Foundations of Geopolitics[1] to be an interesting re-read whenever some larger event involving Russia happened. It feels like the puzzle pieces have been coming together at least since Brexit, if not much longer. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foundations_of_Geopolitics#Con...

Here's a link to the full book: https://www.maieutiek.nl/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/Foundati...

Don't pay for it, unless you want to fund what Wikipedia describes as a "Russian far-right political philosopher [and] strong supporter of Russian president Vladimir Putin".

Re: Europe Can No Longer Ignore That It's Under Russian Attack

#192
post #181

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, you are misreading the situation. Russia is spending a lot of money and effort and resources internally because it has a near total wartime economy now. That is not a good thing . Nobody can eat a tank. You can't plow a field with a howitzer. Your economy suffers when you can make more money being a frontline soldier than you can being a skilled worker. Every single Shahed they build is a waste! And Russia's demo…

Well, you might be right, I agree that war is a waste of resources. But that's actually why EU should stop them, by offering Russia some tangible alternative, a path to prosperity. Instead we cut the ties completely (which we didn't do with U.S. when it attacked Iraq, Israel genociding Palestinians also doesn't seem to matter). Instead, EU wants to embrace the same kind of (they call it) "military keynesianism". They…

I agree with stopping Russia.

Put tanks on the border and Russia will collapse on it's own.

Giving Russia what it wants will just create more problems in a couple of years.

Re: Europe Can No Longer Ignore That It's Under Russian Attack

#193
post #183
post #136

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Russia started those wars to prevent Georgia and Ukraine joining NATO, which was announced by G.W.Bush in 2007. I am not lying, read my comments more carefully.

This is an insane take. No one, not a single country, has even entertained an idea that Ukraine may join NATO. Not even in 2025, when everyone repeatedly tell Ukraine that NATO is out of the question, stop asking us. Even more, between 2010 and 2014 Ukrainian parliament has officially adopted a neutral status regarding NATO, just because it was clear it will never happen, NATO was too afraid. So basically on one hand…

I mean look it up: https://www.rferl.org/a/1075801.html (I thought it was on Wikipedia but it isn't anymore.)

Also, there is no need to speculate about my opinions - I am on this forum and can answer questions. I am quite decidedly not imperialist. :-) I understand that some people have difficulty understanding that somebody might take a position that doesn't conform to tribalistic friend-enemy distinction; but I do (and I am not alone). I think I have morally consistent stance on Ukraine/Russia, which is in fact in line with my stance on Palestine/Israel, for instance.

Re: Europe Can No Longer Ignore That It's Under Russian Attack

#194
post #193
post #183

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is an insane take. No one, not a single country, has even entertained an idea that Ukraine may join NATO. Not even in 2025, when everyone repeatedly tell Ukraine that NATO is out of the question, stop asking us. Even more, between 2010 and 2014 Ukrainian parliament has officially adopted a neutral status regarding NATO, just because it was clear it will never happen, NATO was too afraid. So basically on one hand…

I mean look it up: https://www.rferl.org/a/1075801.html (I thought it was on Wikipedia but it isn't anymore.) Also, there is no need to speculate about my opinions - I am on this forum and can answer questions. I am quite decidedly not imperialist. :-) I understand that some people have difficulty understanding that somebody might take a position that doesn't conform to tribalistic friend-enemy distinction; but I do…

The article you linked is from 2007. Bush did indeed express strong support for offering Ukraine and Georgia a path to NATO membership at the 2008 NATO summit, but he was overruled by other allies[1] who caved in to pressure from Russia, and the topic was taken off the table and remains there.

Putin's former senior advisor Illarionov maintains that the idea of invading Ukraine goes back much further than the 2008 summit. He says that he personally first heard of the idea from Putin during a closed meeting of senior staff in September 2003, when Russia first violated Ukraine's sovereign territory during the Tuzla Island conflict.[2]

[1] Like Germany under Schröder, who was later rewarded with the well-paid position of chairman of the board of Rosneft, Russia's state-controlled oil company.

[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2003_Tuzla_Island_conflict

Re: Europe Can No Longer Ignore That It's Under Russian Attack

#195
post #149

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nobody is forcing anyone to join the "Resist the violent bully in your doorstep" club. It just seems to happen naturally when the violent bully starts attacking their neighbours.

> Nobody is forcing anyone to join the "Resist the violent bully in your doorstep" club. That kind of club might be fine, but NATO simply isn't it. Again, you're not asking the question, what is in it for the U.S. (to promise protection - with nukes - to those countries). Look at my country - Czechia. After the end of Cold war, in the context of NATO, we have done more for American security than America did for ours.…

> what is in it for the U.S.

Peace and stability for about 100 million people in Central and Eastern Europe, who will in turn consume American products and services and cheaply write code for American companies instead of designing nuclear missiles for Russians to target Washington DC. All that the Americans have to do is give a guarantee that essentially costs nothing, if it's believable enough.

> NATO continued expanding after the end of Cold war, without Russia attacking anyone.

NATO is not some loaf of bread sitting on a windowsill that expands on its own. Most countries in Eastern Europe worked feverishly to join NATO. Why? Because their leaders had seen the grainy VHS tapes from the 1994–1996 First Chechen War, showing horrific Russian atrocities against civilians, similar to what many had personally seen or even experienced in the 1940s and 1950s. These images dispelled any illusion that the Russian Federation was more civil than the USSR or that it would respect the sovereignty and self-determination of other peoples.

Since the dissolution of the USSR, the Russia has been almost continuously at war, and it was only a matter of time before its attention shifted from the Caucasus to Eastern Europe: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_wars_involving_Russia#...

By the mid-1990s, Russia had already employed its strategy of setting up fake separatist movements to instigate armed conflicts in Europe, and a good chunk of Moldova remains under Russian military occupation to this day: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transnistrian_War

Nobody wanted to become the target of the next artificial "separatist movement" that would drain resources, hinder economic development, block EU integration, and leave the country vulnerable to full-scale invasion like Ukraine experienced in 2014 and then again in 2022. In an alternate timeline, Eastern Europe could have ended up like a series of Moldovas. Very poor, stagnating countries, constantly battling Russian meddling in their internal affairs.

Even 30 years ago, this threat was obvious to anyone familiar with Russia. For example, here's Chechen president Dudayev, a former commander of a Soviet nuclear bomber base, predicting the future in a 1995 interview as the Russians were hunting him: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IavEOx3hUAk

Re: Europe Can No Longer Ignore That It's Under Russian Attack

#196
post #169

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is in your mind "intentional" and "mistake" contradictory? Haven't you ever done anything intentionally that turned out to be a mistake? It's pretty plain to see that everything russia did in recent years harmed it and strengthened its enemies. That's a mistake in my book unless your goal is a suicide.

You do see how the same story looks with shift by one operation? Enemies getting stronger, russia growing weaker, and finally, trying to do something about it. It’s like chicken and the egg situation. The only dumb thing to do is escalate this even further. One should never “corner” the nuclear power, this is madness.

russia is not a nuclear power or any kind of power

the fact that in 3 years of sabre rattling they didn't perform a single nuclear test, just for show, proves that conclusively

russia myth is pure PR made in USA

Re: Europe Can No Longer Ignore That It's Under Russian Attack

#197
post #195
post #149

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Nobody is forcing anyone to join the "Resist the violent bully in your doorstep" club. That kind of club might be fine, but NATO simply isn't it. Again, you're not asking the question, what is in it for the U.S. (to promise protection - with nukes - to those countries). Look at my country - Czechia. After the end of Cold war, in the context of NATO, we have done more for American security than America did for ours.…

> what is in it for the U.S. Peace and stability for about 100 million people in Central and Eastern Europe, who will in turn consume American products and services and cheaply write code for American companies instead of designing nuclear missiles for Russians to target Washington DC. All that the Americans have to do is give a guarantee that essentially costs nothing, if it's believable enough. > NATO continued exp…

Sorry, but what you're describing is American exceptionalism, in line with PNAC for instance.

> Peace and stability for about 100 million people in Central and Eastern Europe, who will in turn consume American products and services and cheaply write code for American companies instead of designing nuclear missiles for Russians to target Washington DC. All that the Americans have to do is give a guarantee that essentially costs nothing, if it's believable enough.

Precisely what led to this conflict, the idea that the Eastern Europe (or now specifically Ukraine) should be "owned" by some superpower.

I am not a fan of Russia, in fact, I work for American company and I got rich thanks to that, and I generally like Americans, but if you don't see how incredibly patronizing this is, I don't know what to tell you. (I mean, Eastern Europe aside, the idea that for example Germany (or France), one of the largest economies in the world, needs some help from Americans to defend themselves is ridiculous.)

And paradoxically, the islamophobic sentiment is so strong in Eastern Europe today that most people would actually agree with the Russian approach to the Chechen war, unfortunately. Keep in mind Russia is not that different from U.S. when it comes to waging foreign wars.

The idea that war is in any case justifiable is just something that never works out as a consistent moral principle, and that's true for NATO's support for Ukraine as well (though I don't have a problem with Ukrainians defending their country, I think it's the right thing to do).

But once you start using violence as a means to revenge, or to regain the territory, you have morally lost it (which is what NATO is being asked by Ukraine). In Palestine, most of the world recognizes that the problem of Israeli colonization and apartheid has to be resolved through peaceful means (my preferred solution would be one state), not through Palestinian violence, despite all the Israeli violence (which is more than 10x) towards Palestinians. The same principle should be applied to Ukraine-Russia relations.

Re: Europe Can No Longer Ignore That It's Under Russian Attack

#198
post #197
post #195

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> what is in it for the U.S. Peace and stability for about 100 million people in Central and Eastern Europe, who will in turn consume American products and services and cheaply write code for American companies instead of designing nuclear missiles for Russians to target Washington DC. All that the Americans have to do is give a guarantee that essentially costs nothing, if it's believable enough. > NATO continued exp…

Sorry, but what you're describing is American exceptionalism, in line with PNAC for instance. > Peace and stability for about 100 million people in Central and Eastern Europe, who will in turn consume American products and services and cheaply write code for American companies instead of designing nuclear missiles for Russians to target Washington DC. All that the Americans have to do is give a guarantee that essenti…

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Re: Europe Can No Longer Ignore That It's Under Russian Attack

#199

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A less intelligent US currently encourages the EU to stop investments in wind/solar

Wind and solar can not replace oil and gas without a working energy storage solution which is not feasible for many if not most countries except for those with suitable geography for hydroelectric storage. As it stands now every GW of solar/wind generating capacity needs to be combined with a similar GW of either nuclear or fossil capacity. Especially in the case of nuclear power it does not make sense to build gener…

When I was a boy I learned about this cool new technology of storing energy in chemical reactions. Fascinating stuff. Super convenient for balancing the power demand curve. Cheap too. (See economics examples from southern Australia) You could even deploy it at the edge by simply splitting the cost with residents. Imagine if everyone drew power during the demand trough and then replayed it during the demand peak. Now grid balancing is way easier for providers, green power can produce as much as it wants whenever it wants.

Although every country should invest in home-grown battery technology just in case China bites off Taiwan and we gotta cut them out of the global economy too.

Re: Europe Can No Longer Ignore That It's Under Russian Attack

#200

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Except they can't. Europe is struggling with soaring energy costs and a lack of alternatives. Whether it's red tape or unfortunate geography, Europe cannot afford to turn off the Russian gas tap. A benevolent US would see this and find ways to bridge the gap for Europe and lower its energy costs, further choking Russia. A less benevolent US would see this and encourage it to continue, weakening both parties and sowin…

I am not backing Trump here at all, but in his first term he pointed out how over reliant Europe is for Russian energy. A few Euro leaders practically laughed in his face (publicly, on TV) and told him with smirks on their face that he was mistaken. They attempted to frame him as a crazy person for even suggesting it's a problem. A man like Trump does not strike me as somebody that will forget and forgive that. I wou…

This actually goes even further back to the Obama era in 2011.

https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/natosource/text-of-spe...

> Indeed, if current trends in the decline of European defense capabilities are not halted and reversed, Future U.S. political leaders– those for whom the Cold War was not the formative experience that it was for me – may not consider the return on America’s investment in NATO worth the cost.

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