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US reportedly forcing TSMC to buy 49% stake in Intel to secure tariff relief

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Re: US reportedly forcing TSMC to buy 49% stake in Intel to secure tariff relief

#191

Post by impossiblefork »

throwup238 wrote: post #44
ldoughty wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But the US government has proven to be unreliable in maintaining commitments -- even words on paper are meaningless as it doesn't seem to stop them from changing the deal later and demanding more ("I have change the terms of our agreement, pray I do not alter them further"), and then another request demanding more. Would TSMC be doing the government a favor and gaining protection, or are they being extorted? ("would…

Does it really matter? Does TSMC have a choice either way? They’re a globally important company but they’re not ASML and they’re stuck between two superpowers and the threat of potential total war. They’ve had the misfortune of being sucked into geopolitical maelstrom and those tides are far too strong for any company to resist.

I think there's reason for the EU to ensure that there's no semiconductor manufacturing monopoly.

So the EU offering something like nuclear weapons sharing à la that which Germany etc. would probably be reasonable if the US bullied Taiwan too hard. But I don't think it's happening, I think people want good relations with China.

Re: US reportedly forcing TSMC to buy 49% stake in Intel to secure tariff relief

#192

Post by tick_tock_tick »

ldoughty wrote: post #3

I'm kinda of shocked that chip & many tech companies play ball.. They are a required / no alternatives industry by so much of the USA, with limited alternatives. Is it really more cost-effective for each of these companies to spend hundreds of billions of dollars to avoid tariffs when they could easily pass on these costs because we have no alternatives?

> when they could easily pass on these costs because we have no alternatives

The administration has made it clear they will take such actions personally.

The USA by and large figuratively controls the world. All of Europe is one step away from a protectorate and if Taiwan doesn't want to conquered by China they need the USA in the way.

If the USA ever sours on the relationship it means China will take Taiwan so they do whatever they need to do to appease the USA.

Re: US reportedly forcing TSMC to buy 49% stake in Intel to secure tariff relief

#193

Post by MBCook »

_hyn3 wrote: post #175
cherryteastain wrote: post #32

Tariffs kinda make sense when you have a deficit in a widely available item. Big trade deficit with Bangladesh? Sure you can buy cheap textiles from Thailand or Vietnam or something. Unfortunately this approach does not work when you lack a viable domestic alternative and you're up against a monopoly. What will the US do if TSMC does not blink? Not buy TSMC made chips? Obviously that is impossible, so the logical con…

What would TSMC do if they couldn't sell chips to the USA? It cuts both ways, like most trade negotiations.

Is “don’t buy stuff with TSMC chips” really a valid option we have?

Isn’t that basically “stop buying high technology” to a large degree?

Re: US reportedly forcing TSMC to buy 49% stake in Intel to secure tariff relief

#194

Post by tick_tock_tick »

oezi wrote: post #27
FirmwareBurner wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't see how it can't work at least short term, when the US is by a long margin the world leading military and economic power. Why else has the US been overspending on military for decades and planting military bases and nuclear submarines all over the world, to become the world hegemony, if not to bully everyone in doing its bidding when push comes to shove? I'm not defending the actions of the US, I'm just askin…

When all your military spending can't help you win against a third-world country (USA in Afghanistan) or a single country 1/3 your size (Russia in Ukraine), it really makes you wonder if all that spending is justified to uphold one big bluff.

I mean we rolled over Afghanistan the problem is fighting a war "humanely". Hard to accomplish anything with both hands tied behind your back. Just like in Vietnam the USA's ability to wage war is only limited by what it's local population thinks is "fair".

Re: US reportedly forcing TSMC to buy 49% stake in Intel to secure tariff relief

#195

Post by exasperaited »

nemomarx wrote: post #189
exasperaited wrote: post #185

Earlier quoted context omitted.

He said it more than once on more than one occasion though. Which, as with all these things, means either: - this is his wonky understanding (and he is pretty famously innumerate) - he's saying it as a power game despite the pushback because people around him feel they have to smile, agree and retcon stuff to make it believable Or indeed both.

I do kinda expect he saw the number on a paper and has latched onto it, personally. I doubt he can interpret tables or charts.

The most charitable explanation is that -- because as a malignant narcissist his grasp of past, present and future is really kind of broken -- he's talking about reversing hypothetical gains, and because the numbers sound big he doesn't care that it doesn't make any sense to the listener, and his team will twist themselves into pretzels to make it true anyway.

(I haven't yet heard them make the claim that he means reversing gains, but I would expect them to. Heck if it was my job to make his Truth Social messages make sense, that is what I would say.)

But honestly his grasp of fractions and percentages has long been known to be worse than early era ChatGPT.

The most worrying aspect of the Trump era for the markets should be that he treats numbers as entirely flexible according to his mood, when the market needs them to at least be consistent.

But then they knew this before he was elected the first time; he is famous for admitting he assesses the value of future business at any time based in part on how he feels about it (which is reminiscent of the way Musk assesses future valuations, future delivery dates for full-self-driving, future sales of robots etc.)

So it's not a political thing at all. He hasn't always been a Republican but he has always been like this with numbers, and anyone who has ever subjected his words to any kind of scrutiny should know it.

Re: US reportedly forcing TSMC to buy 49% stake in Intel to secure tariff relief

#196

Post by MBCook »

fh973 wrote: post #123
YetAnotherNick wrote: post #103

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Not buy TSMC made chips? Obviously that is impossible Why do you think that? Trump clearly wants them to use Intel's 18A which is likely similar to TSMC 2 year old N3P, which is not an impossible option.

Them? Nvidia and AMD? RTX 7xxx would then be based on an old Intel process? Would buy these?

All of Apple’s stuff?

even if Intel’s processes worked just as well, there’s no way they have the capacity to take over for all that stuff.

We’d be back in a huge shortage.

Re: US reportedly forcing TSMC to buy 49% stake in Intel to secure tariff relief

#197

Post by tick_tock_tick »

xyst wrote: post #39

If US steps in to buy a troubled asset such as Intel after failing to convince TSMC to buy, this country is cooked. Did we learn _nothing_ from the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis? Let them fail.

The government made a shit ton of money from 2008 by not letting them fail and buying preferred shares. Hell fannie mae and freddie mac throw off tons of cash for the government to this day.

Re: US reportedly forcing TSMC to buy 49% stake in Intel to secure tariff relief

#198

Post by Tadpole9181 »

ahmeneeroe-v2 wrote: post #164
ezst wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

With this administration, it's probably just more blackmail, in the form of "it would be a pity if nobody came to the rescue when China eventually puts its Taiwan plans in motion! (Not that playing ball is a guarantee of anything either)".

This isn't blackmail. A security guarantee has value. Exactly what value is hard to say since the US is the only credible seller of such guarantees in this world order

Like with Ukraine? Like with Iran? The US has proven its word is literally worthless and beholden to the whims of a dictator.

At this point, Taiwan would be foolish to not start working on a secret nuclear bomb program. North Korea has proven its the only way to actually protect yourself.

Re: US reportedly forcing TSMC to buy 49% stake in Intel to secure tariff relief

#200

Post by charlieyu1 »

molticrystal wrote: post #109

I understand the push to build fabs in the US to avoid tariffs, as the US likely sees this as a strategic hedge for the global chip supply in case China disrupts Taiwan or Japan, or some other rare catastrophic event occurs. Whether it is correct or not, Trump seems to view the US as a larger version of Mar-a-Lago, so he'll always feel he can charge a premium for access to its consumer base and market while offering…

TSMC tried to build fabs in US, it doesn’t work, turns out you can’t hire top PhDs and pay them 30k and tell them it’s a lot of money
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