The Dollar Is Dead • Hacker News Board

Re: The Dollar Is Dead

#191

Post by nilsherzig » Sun, Aug 03, 2025, 10:34 PM UTC

simonpure wrote: post #157

Luker88 wrote: post #116

I am reading the book from Ray Dalio, "Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order". This article seems a little reductive in its analysis, but this is actually a huge topic. I have not finished the book yet, I don't claim to understand all its implications, but I really like it because it analyzes many empires over the centuries, and tries to track multiple determinants for all of them (also a lot of pretty…

He also published animated video versions: 45min https://youtu.be/xguam0TKMw8 5min https://youtu.be/BB2r_eOjsPw

So this guy just takes the time and money (I guess that part doesn’t hurt if you’ve got 15 billion) to write a book and produce an excellent video version for a broader audience, just for … what exactly?

According to his Wikipedia his employees are forced to agree to continuous recordings, the NYT claims he does some sort of (i assume perfectly legal) insider trading and just acts like he’s got the perfect system in place, he defended the CCPs actions on multiple accessions and just in general does not seem like the type of guy to provide anything of value for free.

So can someone educate me on the angle? What’s the goal here?

And why would anyone read this and not get the feeling of being scammed. There is no way this guy is in it for the book sales.

Honestly I’m sometimes questioning my sanity while reading the comments of videos like this. There are people acting like he’s a modern Prometheus, sharing the knowledge of financial whatever. I would really be amazed if my cynicism turns out to be wrong on this one.

Re: The Dollar Is Dead

#192

Post by paulryanrogers » Sun, Aug 03, 2025, 10:43 PM UTC

rco8786 wrote: post #49

water9 wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

The first Covid vaccines were approved for humans before Biden ever took office.

One president talked down vaccines, despite some bragging about fast tracking them. The other talked vaccines up, and managed to stop rising inflation without crashing the economy.

Re: The Dollar Is Dead

#193

Post by teamweightloss » Sun, Aug 03, 2025, 10:44 PM UTC

Luker88 wrote: post #116

I am reading the book from Ray Dalio, "Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order". This article seems a little reductive in its analysis, but this is actually a huge topic. I have not finished the book yet, I don't claim to understand all its implications, but I really like it because it analyzes many empires over the centuries, and tries to track multiple determinants for all of them (also a lot of pretty…

>Dalio analysis agrees that today China power is rising and the USA is weakening

Ray Dalio knows nothing. US just put tariffs on every other country in the world. And threatened China with 145% tariffs to get them to come to the table and open up Chinese market even more, even though China is in its own Great Depression right now.

Re: The Dollar Is Dead

#194

Post by lawlessone » Sun, Aug 03, 2025, 10:44 PM UTC

nostromo wrote: post #101

TheOtherHobbes wrote: post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is no "overspending." There is only undertaxing. The debt is literally just the accumulated difference between spending and taxation. If extreme wealth was taxed, the debt would be zero. The point isn't even to "pay for spending" but to enforce a functional social contract, and to limit the political and democratic distortions created by extreme inequality. "Markets" should not have a veto on policy in a democr…

Europe has repeatedly tried to soak the rich, and the results are always the same: the rich move their wealth somewhere else and you end up breaking even or even reducing your tax revenue. France: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/dec/31/france-drops-7... UK: https://obr.uk/box/effect-of-the-additional-rate-of-income-t... Sweden: https://eml.berkeley.edu/~saez/course/seimAEJ17wealth.pdf It's interesting to note…

Some will move , unless everyone does it together

Re: The Dollar Is Dead

#195

Post by carlosjobim » Sun, Aug 03, 2025, 10:44 PM UTC

kesor wrote: post #47

Fiat currencies are like Unicorns and Santa Claus, they stop existing when people grow up and stop believing in them. And there is no need for a "replacement" (i.e. the nothing is better argument) or a need for "enforcement" (i.e. the military argument) or a need for a "system" (i.e. the rule-based-order & courts argument). Fiat currencies simply die off due to lack of trust and belief, and it often happens by way of…

As for the almighty dollar, you better believe in it even if you don't – or your country is getting bombed.

Re: The Dollar Is Dead

#196

Post by IAmGraydon » Sun, Aug 03, 2025, 10:46 PM UTC

saubeidl wrote: post #175

starmole wrote: post #164

This article is initially very well written and convincing. And it started to stress me out a little bit! Am I at great risk for having most of my wealth tied to the dollar? But taking a step back: It is making very strong predictions for a future state of what I would consider a chaotic system. As the author identifies as a Physicist and not a Psychic, why is there no mention of uncertainty? No mention of how you wo…

> Am I at great risk for having most of my wealth tied to the dollar? Well, you lost 15% compared to Euros this year so far...

It's pretty obvious when I see this comment or others about the dollar losing value at a historic rate that the person commenting read it somewhere and doesn't actually understand the currency movement and has zero context. Your comment isn't even factually correct either - the USD is down 10.63% against the Euro this year, not 15%. Now to add a bit of context, it's up nearly 40% over the last 15 years against the Euro. The dollar is currently sitting at a level vs the Euro that is higher than 31 out of the last 45 years. It is at the same level it was in November 2021, which is still far above the mean.

Have a look at the dollar index since it's inception in 1967. Does it look like the dollar is plummeting to you?

https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/TVC-DXY/?timeframe=ALL

Re: The Dollar Is Dead

#197

Post by teamweightloss » Sun, Aug 03, 2025, 10:46 PM UTC

dustingetz wrote: post #5

i would like to see deeper analysis of similar forces playing out in other countries. A weakening dollar implies a strengthening world, but European policy is even more messed up than American, there is still widespread talent export e.g. european programmers working for american companies, indian asian and russian programmers immigrating to Europe or working remote abroad, and China seems to face financial crises ju…

US just put tariffs on every other country in the world, and nothing really happened. Thus, US is strong, not weak. dollar is weaker, US is not.

Re: The Dollar Is Dead

#198

Post by nialv7 » Sun, Aug 03, 2025, 10:50 PM UTC

OK. but how do i make money from this?

Re: The Dollar Is Dead

#199

Post by throwawaymaths » Sun, Aug 03, 2025, 10:52 PM UTC

TacticalCoder wrote: post #95

throwawaymaths wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I’m somewhat confident in the Euro out of curiosity, why do you believe that?

I don't understand why anyone would believe that. The euro does exist since only a quarter of a century and is already in very serious dire straits. It's the worse ever conceived currency (conceived by clueless bureaucrats): it makes no sense at all to have a common currency for countries with different fiscal policies. Nearly all the countries that have the euro are more indebted than the US (GDP wise). One country…

i would say this: if thanos snapped his fingers and made dollars disappear, the euro would be the best choice among a bunch of shitty choices for world reserve currency, but still trailing behind "no reserve currency at all".

Re: The Dollar Is Dead

#200

Post by bawana » Sun, Aug 03, 2025, 10:55 PM UTC

nostromo wrote: post #101

TheOtherHobbes wrote: post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is no "overspending." There is only undertaxing. The debt is literally just the accumulated difference between spending and taxation. If extreme wealth was taxed, the debt would be zero. The point isn't even to "pay for spending" but to enforce a functional social contract, and to limit the political and democratic distortions created by extreme inequality. "Markets" should not have a veto on policy in a democr…

Europe has repeatedly tried to soak the rich, and the results are always the same: the rich move their wealth somewhere else and you end up breaking even or even reducing your tax revenue. France: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/dec/31/france-drops-7... UK: https://obr.uk/box/effect-of-the-additional-rate-of-income-t... Sweden: https://eml.berkeley.edu/~saez/course/seimAEJ17wealth.pdf It's interesting to note…

The IRS taxes americans no matter where they are or where they take their money. The US is only one of two nations in the world with citizenshp based taxation. And if you want to renounce your citizenship, 35% exit tax. The only solution is to make a foreign corporation (Apple keeps its income in Ireland for example) and hide your money there (The City of London does a brisk business setting up corps in their old colonies - when the IRS comes knocking, the City of London plays dumb)