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The current hype around autonomous agents, and what actually works in production

utkarshkanwat.com

191–200 of 268 posts

Re: The current hype around autonomous agents, and what actually works in production

#191

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The standard way to use Claude Code is with a constant-cost subscription; one of their standard website accounts. It’s rate-limited but still generous. You can also use API tokens, yes, but that’s 5-10x more expensive. So I wouldn’t.

If API tokens are 10x more expensive doesn’t that imply that the constant-cost subscription is massively subsidized?

Yeah, it probably is. I'll use it while it's there.

Re: The current hype around autonomous agents, and what actually works in production

#192

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Subscription?

I have one, and upgrades don't have unlimited access as far as I can tell. Correct me if I'm wrong. This cost scaling will be an issue for this whole AI employee thing, especially because I imagine these providers are heavily discounting.

There are usage limits, but the argument is that unless you're writing and modifying large swathes of code in YOLO mode, you don't hit them. At least for what I would call a small and tedious task. I'm thinking "write a docstring", "add type annotations", "write a single unit test for this case", "fill in this function". For a good prompt these are often solved in <10 interactions. Especially when combined with scoped rules that are pulled in on demand to guide output.

Re: The current hype around autonomous agents, and what actually works in production

#194
TFA is a bit rambling and readers are getting distracted by specific claims, like the bit about 99.9%+ reliability. TFAs main point is that productive use of AI agents requires tightly specified context and frequent human intervention, which is what folks have been saying for a while.

Re: The current hype around autonomous agents, and what actually works in production

#195

One thing I'll add that isn't touched on here is about context windows. While not "infinite", humans have a very large context window for problems they're specialized in solving. Models can often overcome their context window limitations by having larger and more diverse training sets, but that still isn't really a solution to context windows. Yes, I get the context window increases over time and that for many purpos…

> humans have a very large context window for problems they're specialized in solving

Do they? I certainly don't. I don't know if it's my memory deficiency, but I frequently hit my "context window" when solving problems of sufficient complexity.

Can you provide some examples of problems where humans have such large context windows?

Re: The current hype around autonomous agents, and what actually works in production

#196
post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think you're crossing reliability and availability. Reliability means 99.9% of the time when I hand something off to someone else it's what they want. Availability means I'm at my desk and not at the coffee machine. Humans very much are 99.9% accurate, and my deliverable even comes with a list of things I'm not confident about

> Humans very much are 99.9% accurate This is an extraordinary claim, which would require extraordinary evidence to prove. Meanwhile, anyone who spends a few hours with colleagues in a predominantly typing/data entry/data manipulation service (accounting, invoicing, presales, etc.) KNOWS the rate of minor errors is humongous.

I wouldn't take the claim to mean that humans universally have an attribute called "accuracy" that is uniformly set to the value 99.9%.

The claim is pretty clearly 'can' achieve (humans) vs 'do' achieve (LLM). Therefore one example of a human building a system at 99.9% reliability is sufficient to support the claim. That we can compute and prove reliability is really the point.

For example, the function "return 3" 100% reliably counts the Rs in strawberry. We can see the answer never changes, if it is correct once therefore, it will always be correct because the answer is always the same correct answer. A LLM can't do that, and infamously gave inaccurate results to that problem, not even reaching 80% accuracy.

For the sake of discussion, I'll define reliability to be the product of availability and accuracy and will assume accuracy (the right answer) and availability (able to get any answer) to be independent variables. In my example I held availability at a fixed 100% to illustrate why being able to achieve high accuracy is required for high reliability.

So, two points: humans can achieve 100% accuracy in the systems they build because we can prove correctness and do error checking. Because LLM cannot do 100%, frankly, there is going to be a problem that shows a distinction between max capabilities. While difficult, humans can build highly reliable complex systems. The computer is an example, that all the hardware interfaces together so well and works so often is remarkable.

Second, if every step along a pipeline is 99% reliable, then after 20 steps we are no longer talking about a system that usually works, but one that _rarely_ works. For a 20 step system to work above 50%, it really needs some steps that are effectively at 100%

Re: The current hype around autonomous agents, and what actually works in production

#197
post #9

> Production systems need 99.9%+ reliability This is not remotely true. Think of any business process around your company. 99.9% availability would mean only 1min26 per day allowed for instability/errors/downtime. Surely your human collaborators aren't hitting this SLA. A single coffee break immediately breaks this (per collaborator!). Business Process Automation via AI doesn't need to be perfect. It simply needs to…

I think you're crossing reliability and availability. Reliability means 99.9% of the time when I hand something off to someone else it's what they want. Availability means I'm at my desk and not at the coffee machine. Humans very much are 99.9% accurate, and my deliverable even comes with a list of things I'm not confident about

I would say reliability is availability times accuracy.

(Your point remains largely the same, just more precise with the updated definition replacing 'reliable' with 'accurate'.)

Re: The current hype around autonomous agents, and what actually works in production

#198

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The standard way to use Claude Code is with a constant-cost subscription; one of their standard website accounts. It’s rate-limited but still generous. You can also use API tokens, yes, but that’s 5-10x more expensive. So I wouldn’t.

If API tokens are 10x more expensive doesn’t that imply that the constant-cost subscription is massively subsidized?

Or the markup they apply to the price per token pricing is extremely large.

Re: The current hype around autonomous agents, and what actually works in production

#199
The compounding error rate in long-running processes is just one side of the coin. You can also use models to catch errors, and those success rates compound as well. So, it's not like you have no options to fight against a giant failure rate monster...

Re: The current hype around autonomous agents, and what actually works in production

#200
I spoke with an Amazon AI production engineer who’s talking with prospective clients about implementing AI in our business. When a colleague asked about using generative AI in customer facing chats the engineer said he knows of zero companies who don’t have a human in the loop. All the automatic replies are non-generative “old” tech. Gen AI is just not reliable enough for anyone to stake their reputation on it.
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