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Tesla Robotaxi launch is a dangerous game of smoke and mirrors

electrek.co

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Re: Tesla Robotaxi launch is a dangerous game of smoke and mirrors

#191

Post by ben_w »

stronglikedan wrote: post #48
blindriver wrote: post #4

I have over $100k in Tesla puts. There is no way Tesla survives this. They have plummeting sales every quarter, and Elon is pushing out a product that is going to get into an accident within the first week. Robotaxis are glorified Ubers and will never level up to Waymos. FSD is useless if you have to keep your eye on the wheel and road. I have a Tesla Model Y. It's my favorite car I've ever driven. I subscribed to FS…

> But Elon has killed his brand with his politics I think a lot of people would like to think this is true, ironically because of his politics.

I think that "would like to think" applies more when he was pissing off the Democrats (and Brazilians, Ukrainians, British, Germans, Canadians, South Africans, etc.); it looks like he's since burned his bridges with the Republicans in general and Trump in particular, which I believe leaves him with the support of Russia (who may just be trolling) and China (at least until BYD et al. are big enough to absorb the Chinese Tesla factory workers).

Re: Tesla Robotaxi launch is a dangerous game of smoke and mirrors

#192

Post by ben_w »

freshmatrix wrote: post #80
blindriver wrote: post #4

I have over $100k in Tesla puts. There is no way Tesla survives this. They have plummeting sales every quarter, and Elon is pushing out a product that is going to get into an accident within the first week. Robotaxis are glorified Ubers and will never level up to Waymos. FSD is useless if you have to keep your eye on the wheel and road. I have a Tesla Model Y. It's my favorite car I've ever driven. I subscribed to FS…

good luck... - https://x.com/SawyerMerritt/status/1934623551694508456/photo... - "(Obi) The Road Ahead:Pricing Insights On Waymo, Uber and Lyft" https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/25973106-obi-waymo-6... - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2025-06-16/why-tesla-c... Best-selling BEVs worldwide January-April 2025, according to new data from EV Volumes: 1) Tesla Model Y 2) Tesla Model 3 3) BYD Seagull/Dolphin M…

I'm old enough to remember when the iMac was the best selling PC in the world*.

This was the 90s and Apple had only just narrowly avoided bankruptcy, but as they only had one model (even one colour!) of "cheap" consumer PC whereas everyone else had loads, they were by this measure the best seller.

* or the region, I forget, after all it was the 90s.

Re: Tesla Robotaxi launch is a dangerous game of smoke and mirrors

#193

Post by thecolorblue »

Powdering7082 wrote: post #60
blindriver wrote: post #4

I have over $100k in Tesla puts. There is no way Tesla survives this. They have plummeting sales every quarter, and Elon is pushing out a product that is going to get into an accident within the first week. Robotaxis are glorified Ubers and will never level up to Waymos. FSD is useless if you have to keep your eye on the wheel and road. I have a Tesla Model Y. It's my favorite car I've ever driven. I subscribed to FS…

I've been buying Tesla puts at a small scale for the past 6 months, usually puts about a month out. It's been a great way to lose money so far.

My new strategy has been wait for a large swing (when IV is high) then sell puts at ~ .1 delta. Ask me at the end of the month if it works out.

Re: Tesla Robotaxi launch is a dangerous game of smoke and mirrors

#194

Post by iknowstuff »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #64
ilikeatari wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I also use FSD HW4 daily, and it really just works well in regular conditions. It's unbelievable how we have a level of autonomy here and now, and not too many people know about it. Out of about 6k miles in the last 7 months, I probably drove 80 or so. I did not have many issues in the rain, but I do have issues in the snow. It's still somewhat unaware of how to drive well in snow. I usually disengage when it's snowy…

> unbelievable how we have a level of autonomy here and now, and not too many people know about it Would note that most premium cars sold in America currently have advanced self-driving capabilities. I've personally been more impressed by Mercedes' kit than Tesla's, mostly because the former seems to have done a great job of defining where you can almost trust the system to just work.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h3WiY_4kgkE

yes so much better, and so clear when it's about to stop following the curve

Re: Tesla Robotaxi launch is a dangerous game of smoke and mirrors

#195

Post by honeybadger1 »

xnx wrote: post #71
antisthenes wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Theranos never went public, so the quote about markets doesn't apply. I do agree with the general sentiment, however. If FSD kills a person, many executives, including the top dog, need to go to jail.

> If FSD kills a person, many executives, including the top dog, need to go to jail. It would be great to have that level of accountability. Drunk drivers that kill people barely go to jail: https://www.cbsnews.com/chicago/news/man-gets-10-days-in-jai...

FSD saves people, naysayers here of the technology are like bureaucrats, raising a problem for every solution.

Re: Tesla Robotaxi launch is a dangerous game of smoke and mirrors

#196

Post by partiallypro »

electrondood wrote: post #51
partiallypro wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think if Robotaxis take off, then his politics won't matter at all. People aren't going to care what brand of car comes to pick them up as long as they feel safe. I've been bearish on Tesla for years and they always prove me wrong. Robotaxis/Waymos are going to be national thing within the decade. It's just a bet on who survives, the biggest loser will be gig workers, that part I feel confident about.

I disagree. Most rideshares happen in urban areas, where people are liberal. Liberals hate Musk. If you have the choice to take MAGAtaxi or a Waymo, as a liberal that's an obvious choice.

People care more about if a ride is cheap and effective than who owns it. I know that bursts a lot of political die hard bubbles, but it's the absolute truth.

Re: Tesla Robotaxi launch is a dangerous game of smoke and mirrors

#197

Post by dexterdog »

blindriver wrote: post #41
cowthulhu wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tesla has proven to be very good at lying, moving goalposts, and insisting that this time [x] is right around the corner. I don't know what would be different this time. They might launch it with, like, 5 cars total, or have it be 100% teleoperated, or limit it to side roads. They might require the passenger to sit in the drivers seat and take liability, or push it back a few more months, or only run it at 3AM when t…

Tesla has lost a lot of their lustre this year. Sales plummeting is incontrovertible. Just based on that alone is devastating. But this robotaxi lack of success will not be treated the same anymore.

It should have lost a lot of lustre, but it hasn't. I see no justification for the stock being even $30 right now, but it is 10x that number.

Re: Tesla Robotaxi launch is a dangerous game of smoke and mirrors

#198

Post by kmacleod »

honeybadger1 wrote: post #122
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> unbelievable how we have a level of autonomy here and now, and not too many people know about it Would note that most premium cars sold in America currently have advanced self-driving capabilities. I've personally been more impressed by Mercedes' kit than Tesla's, mostly because the former seems to have done a great job of defining where you can almost trust the system to just work.

As someone who has tried both, FSD is still so much better in my experience. I use FSD in Miami and drive down to Key West often and it drives more than 99% of the trip and it just makes the drive so much more enjoyable. Even with all the recent road work going on, it handles it almost without error. I have the occasional take over due to things like it not wanting to get over soon enough into a lane for a turn or wh…

Using the turn signal will nudge it to change lanes.
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