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"AI Will Replace All the Jobs " Is Just Tech Execs Doing Marketing

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Re: "AI Will Replace All the Jobs " Is Just Tech Execs Doing Marketing

#191

Post by bigstrat2003 »

FirmwareBurner wrote: post #135
lambdasquirrel wrote: post #130

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The AI I use at work can’t set up IAM correctly, didn’t even know it needed to, let alone associate said IAM principal with the correct k8s RBAC groups. I do appreciate that it ground through a lot of boilerplate, but I’m concerned that it’s like buying a new Sony or Leica camera as a beginner photographer. As with your non-coder VBA friend, it might make them think they’re a lot more skilled than they really are. An…

>The AI I use at work can’t set up IAM correctly Can you? :D Based on my favorite quote from the I, Robot(2004) movie with Will Smith when he got roasted by a robot: W.S.: "You are just a machine. An imitation of life. Can a robot write a symphony? Can a robot turn a canvas into a beautiful masterpiece?* Robot: "Can you?" Which I think applies to a lot of anti-AI sentiments. Sure, the AI doesn't know how to do X, Y,…

> Can you?

Yes, I can. In fact, the entire reason I think AI is not a useful tool (contrary to the hype) is that it can't do many things I find easy to do. I'm certainly not going to trust it with the things I find hard to do (and therefore can't check it effectively) in that case!

For example, a month or two ago I was trying to determine if there's a way to control the order in which CloudFormation creates+deletes objects when a replacement is needed. AI (including both ChatGPT and AWS' own purpose built AI) insisted yes, hallucinating configuration options that straight up don't exist if you try to use them. The ability to produce syntactically valid configuration files (not even necessarily correctly doing what you want them to) should be table stakes here, but I find that AI routinely can't do it.

Re: "AI Will Replace All the Jobs " Is Just Tech Execs Doing Marketing

#192

Post by msgodel »

lenerdenator wrote: post #24

It's also a great example of why tech executives shouldn't be trusted, at all. "My thing will break our entire economy. I'm still gonna build it, though." - statements dreamed up by the utterly deranged

I like to call most of this stuff "executive sounds." My favorite recent example is the Nvidia CEO talking about how they're going to use quantum computing for ML.

Re: "AI Will Replace All the Jobs " Is Just Tech Execs Doing Marketing

#193

Post by eranation »

jcfrei wrote: post #168
eranation wrote: post #16

My personal thoughts on this are - A good lawyer + AI will likely win in court against a non lawyer with AI who would likely win in court against just an AI - A good software engineer + AI will ship features faster / safer vs a non engineer with AI, who will beat just AI - A good doctor + AI will save more lives than a non doctor + AI, who will perform better than just AI As long as a human has a marginal boost to AI…

The scenario you describe leads to a massive productivity boost for some engineers and no work left for the rest. Or in other words: The profit share of labour compared to capital becomes even smaller. Meaning an even more skewed income distribution, where a few make millions and the rest of the currently employed software engineers / lawyers, etc will become bartenders or greeters at walmart.

When backlogs run dry and users don’t come up with feature requests / bugs faster than humans + AI can tackle. Yes.

Until then, adding one more engineer (with AI) will have a better ROI than firing one.

Engineers who are purist and refuse to use AI, might end up with a wake up call. But they are smart, they’ll adapt too.

Re: "AI Will Replace All the Jobs " Is Just Tech Execs Doing Marketing

#194

Post by ednite »

tines wrote: post #170
ednite wrote: post #147

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Fair enough, but what happens when those same companies start realizing it’s not just about reduced quality, but also security risks and costly errors? At some point, the savings get wiped out by the consequences. Do they go back to hiring human expertise then? I totally agree though, the business mindset of saving a buck often outweighs everything else. I’m actually going through something similar right now with a c…

> security risks and costly errors? I hope that you're right, but the problem is that the regulatory bodies are captured by the players that they are supposed to regulate. Can you name a time in recent history where a company had to pay a penalty for a harmful action, either intentional or neglectful, that exceeded the profit they gained from the action?

Another good point. I guess my values don’t align with how business accountability principles. Here’s hoping things shift, but you are right, I’m not holding my breath.

Re: "AI Will Replace All the Jobs " Is Just Tech Execs Doing Marketing

#195

Post by kunzhi »

sumeno wrote: post #187
tines wrote: post #128

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would agree with you, but the people making the decision to fire or keep you don’t care about quality, nor do they care about understanding AI or its limitations. If AI mostly does kinda the right thing 70% of the time but saves the company $80k a year, that’s a no-brainer. We’re being Pollyanna-ish to think that anyone cares about the things we care about, that you mention in your post. If firing you saves $1.50 a…

And eventually they learn the lesson that many companies learned in the early 00s with offshoring. You get what you pay for

I don't think any of those companies learned a lesson.

Re: "AI Will Replace All the Jobs " Is Just Tech Execs Doing Marketing

#197

Post by AstroBen »

ninetyninenine wrote: post #171
AstroBen wrote: post #136

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's no evidence we're even on the right track to have human level intelligence so no, I don't think it's realistic to say that Counterpoint: our brains use about 20 watts of power. How much does AI use again? Does this not suggest that it's absolutely nothing like what our brains do?

There is evidence we're on the right track. Are you blind? The evidence is not definitive, but it's evidence that makes it a possibility. Evidence: ChatGPT and all LLMs. You cannot realistically say that this isn't evidence. Neither of these things guarantees that AI will take over our jobs but they are datapoints that lend credence to the possibility that it will. On the other side of the coin, it is utterly unreali…

> unrealistic to say that AI will never take over our jobs

That's not my position. I'm agnostic. I have no idea where it'll end up but there's no reason to have a strong belief either way

The comment you originally replied to is I think the sanest thing in here. You can't just project out endlessly unless you have a technological basis for it. The current methodologies are getting into diminishing returns and we'll need another breakthrough to push it much further

This is turning into religious debate

Re: "AI Will Replace All the Jobs " Is Just Tech Execs Doing Marketing

#198

Post by eranation »

JSR_FDED wrote: post #28
eranation wrote: post #16

My personal thoughts on this are - A good lawyer + AI will likely win in court against a non lawyer with AI who would likely win in court against just an AI - A good software engineer + AI will ship features faster / safer vs a non engineer with AI, who will beat just AI - A good doctor + AI will save more lives than a non doctor + AI, who will perform better than just AI As long as a human has a marginal boost to AI…

That’s all well and good for the humans with experience, for whom AI is a force multiplier. My concern is for the juniors - there’s going to be far fewer opportunities for them to get started in careers.

It’s all supply and demand.

When the market pool of seniors will run dry, and as long as hiring a junior + AI is better than a random person + AI, it will balance itself.

I do believe the “we have a tech talent shortage” was and is a lie, the shortage is tech talent that is willing to work for less. Everyone was told to just learn to code and make 6 figures out do college. This drove over-supply.

There is still shortage of very good software engineers, just not shortage of people with a computer science degree.

Re: "AI Will Replace All the Jobs " Is Just Tech Execs Doing Marketing

#200

Post by FirmwareBurner »

bigstrat2003 wrote: post #191
FirmwareBurner wrote: post #135

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>The AI I use at work can’t set up IAM correctly Can you? :D Based on my favorite quote from the I, Robot(2004) movie with Will Smith when he got roasted by a robot: W.S.: "You are just a machine. An imitation of life. Can a robot write a symphony? Can a robot turn a canvas into a beautiful masterpiece?* Robot: "Can you?" Which I think applies to a lot of anti-AI sentiments. Sure, the AI doesn't know how to do X, Y,…

> Can you? Yes, I can. In fact, the entire reason I think AI is not a useful tool (contrary to the hype) is that it can't do many things I find easy to do. I'm certainly not going to trust it with the things I find hard to do (and therefore can't check it effectively) in that case! For example, a month or two ago I was trying to determine if there's a way to control the order in which CloudFormation creates+deletes o…

What if the AI can do things others find hard to do?

And my point with AI isn't that it can do things that are easy or hard, it's that it can do things I don't know how to do, yet. I can spend time to learn them but the AI knows them already and at that point it's better than me.

Hard and easy are subjective. When yo don't know how to do something it's hard, when you know how to do it it's easy.

You might know IAM but most people don't so it's not meant to replace you, it's to replace them.

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