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Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

cnbc.com

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Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#191

Post by kergonath »

jdc0589 wrote: post #127
jp57 wrote: post #119

Earlier quoted context omitted.

HN should have a feature where you can tag a prediction to come back for review after some period of time.

we need the reddit remindme bot

No, we really don’t. We don’t need a bot bringing marginally positive value for a single person and shitting the bed, cluttering everything with stupid useless noise and bringing negative value for everyone else. "Be more like Reddit" is really not something HN should aspire to. If you like Reddit, it’s ok to be both there and here.

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#192

Post by FredPret »

rayiner wrote: post #99

Stopping the flow of Chinese products, often made with child or forced labor, is a good thing: https://www.dol.gov/agencies/ilab/reports/child-labor/list-o... . Weren’t we upset about the Uyghurs five minutes ago? Trade with China is bad. It means a race to the bottom with a foreign country that doesn’t have our labor protections or environmental laws, and whose “comparative advantage” is cheaper labor. This was a wi…

China is not only cheaper but in many cases better at manufacturing.

I sometimes deal with a Canadian vs a Chinese supplier for a component of a consumer product, and the difference in customer service, quality, and speed is stark. AND it’s cheaper. The only issue from a logistics point of view is that China is far and shipping is slow.

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#193

Post by FpUser »

SoftTalker wrote: post #129
jmyeet wrote: post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The "empty shelves" discourse is alarmist and honestly kind of annoying. Almost all of the food on the shelves is locally produced or, in the very least, not produced in China. Some foods may disappear or become more expensive but there'll really be no disruption in food supply. This will however affect markets dominated by Chinese goods, particularly clothing. Even here the effects will be somewhat mitigated by exis…

Everyone here is worried about it from the American side, but China has motivation to settle this too, so they can continue to sell their enshitified plastic crap. It's not like most other wealthy countries want it, at least not any more than they are already buying.

>"enshitified plastic crap"

Cut the bull. Generally you get what you pay for. China does both. You can get crap for a penny but you can also get high quality stuff which costs more. Both made in China.

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#194

Post by parineum »

jmyeet wrote: post #75
taylodl wrote: post #7

This could get really ugly when the shelves start going empty. This may make the toilet paper incident seem quaint in comparison.

The "empty shelves" discourse is alarmist and honestly kind of annoying. Almost all of the food on the shelves is locally produced or, in the very least, not produced in China. Some foods may disappear or become more expensive but there'll really be no disruption in food supply. This will however affect markets dominated by Chinese goods, particularly clothing. Even here the effects will be somewhat mitigated by exis…

I haven't seen anyone saying that there's going to be no food. All reporting I've seen is that Walmart/Target shelves are going to be empty because of the glut of consumer goods they sell that are manufacture in China, ie, clothing, toys, electronics, etc.

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#195

Post by taylodl »

SwamyM wrote: post #33
taylodl wrote: post #7

This could get really ugly when the shelves start going empty. This may make the toilet paper incident seem quaint in comparison.

Genuine question but how likely is that to happen? The media doesn't seem to be doing a good job articulating what the (likely) real world impact is going to be. I keep hearing how other countries are negotiating but when you look into the details, there is nothing of substance actually happening.

I'm in the same boat as you, trying to figure out the impacts of all this. We're hearing reports that the ports are empty, and we know the CEOs of Walmart, Target, and Home Depot recently visited Trump to warn him of empty store shelves. The fact that these key ports are seeing reduced shipments corroborates their warning.

Meanwhile, Kevin Hassett, Director of the National Economic Council, said just yesterday that he doesn't believe any shelves will be empty due to retailers planning ahead for the supply disruption—directly contradicting what the CEOs of those retailers had warned Trump just a few days earlier.

I have serious concerns about the competency of this administration. The CEOs of major retailers have a vested interest in understanding supply and demand and have intimate knowledge of supply chains and retail channels. If they say shelves are going to be empty, then you can take it to the bank that shelves are going to be empty.

Everything is pointing to shelves being empty. What happens after the shelves start going empty is what has me concerned. It could be a minor issue, or it could lead to mass panic. My concern is that I have no confidence in this administration's ability to resolve any issues that may arise due to their actions. They're making the mess and are expecting us to clean it up after them.

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#196

Post by School-Cotton »

selectodude wrote: post #180
rs999gti wrote: post #108

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> the toilet paper I guess these US manufacturers will need to step it up: Kimberly-Clark, Procter & Gamble, and Georgia-Pacific

I've seen all three begin short-shipping us, especially on cheaper brands.

Who is “us”? Do you work for a grocery store?

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#197

Post by parineum »

FollowingTheDao wrote: post #167
jghn wrote: post #125

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I both agree and have been worried that this is overly reductive. As far as I can tell, literally nothing that I buy regularly is directly sourced from China. Or anywhere other than the US & neighboring countries. The vast majority of my groceries are locally sourced. And the vast majority of the rest come from expected regions, for instance San Marzano tomatoes from Italy. I do not regularly buy clothes, children's…

If people can’t buy Chinese tomatoes, what kind of tomatoes do you think they’re going to buy m? the same ones that you do! That means the prices of your tomatoes are going to go up! No one is going to be immune from these pricing increases from the tariffs.

Where do I buy Chinese tomatoes?

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#198

Post by thfuran »

globalise83 wrote: post #171
dten wrote: post #158

I found out yesterday that the port of LA has a free real-time dashboard ( https://tower.portoptimizer.com/ ) so you can check the stats yourself. While it's interesting that next (week 19) shows a 35% drop YoY, the following week predicts a 25% increase from w19 and "only" 8.7% drop YoY.

Could it be similar to weather forecasts where the further out the forecast goes the more it relies on seasonal averages?

I think two weeks is pretty much the low end of transit time for a container from China to US, so I wouldn't expect needing much modeling within that window.

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#199

Post by aaron695 »

chunky1994 wrote: post #49
SwamyM wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Genuine question but how likely is that to happen? The media doesn't seem to be doing a good job articulating what the (likely) real world impact is going to be. I keep hearing how other countries are negotiating but when you look into the details, there is nothing of substance actually happening.

This is a good discussion around the supply chain issues that will likely be happening: https://youtu.be/-dgHWv-Dh6Q?t=1370 Ryan runs Flexport which is a supply chain company so its from the "source" if you will.

[dead]

Re: Port of Los Angeles says shipping volume will plummet 35% next week

#200

Post by dudinax »

bilbo0s wrote: post #103
taylodl wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The United States has never had such incompetence in governance. Americans aren't accustomed to this degree of ineptness.

It's surprising that we would actually vote for this of our own free will. That's gotta be something historians will puzzle over for the next two hundred years. It's mind blowing that we did that. Stepping a level lower even, how, on Earth, could our system possibly have produced Harris, Vance and Trump as the options? Then you step a level lower than that, and even the challengers were like, DeSantis and Haley? It w…

Trump had much superior social media targeting.

Muslims in Michegan were convinced Harris is a genocidal maniac, while most everybody else heard she was in bed with hamas.

Liberal suburban housewives heard she was a merciless prosecutor while others learned she was soft on crime.

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