Earlier quoted context omitted.
Markov chains have done that for ages. They aren't AI. This is just that scaled up. Just because it can infer a token doesn't mean it can infer a conclusion to an argument.
To add a bit to this : expert systems have two properties. They give an answer, and they explain their reasoning . LLM cannot explain their reasoning, and that is because there is no reasoning.
"I don't think that 'just predicting the next word' is the insult that people think it is, it's mostly what we all do."
If we break our lives down into the different types of reasoning, and what we mostly do day-to-day, this rings very true to me.
I currently believe that our brains generally operate as very efficient inference machines. Sometimes we slow down to think things through, but for example, when in the ideal "flow state" it's some kind of distilled efficient inference. Isn't it? This is very hard for me to deny at this time.
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edit:
4o appears to agree with both of you, more than it does with me.
https://chatgpt.com/share/68119b41-1144-8012-b50d-f8f15997eb...
However, Sonnet 3.7 appears to side with me.
https://claude.ai/share/91139bca-3201-4ffc-a940-bdd27329e71f
(Both of these are the default models available for free accounts, on each website, at the time of writing)
IMO, hey, at least we do live in interesting times.