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American Disruption

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191–200 of 210 posts

Re: American Disruption

#191
post #163

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, that's what I meant.

Q is anyone knows: would yield on the 10y going down actually help the US to refinance its existing debt (akin to a mortgage refinance), or simply issue new debt more cheaply?

New debt would be cheaper. Most US treasuries are fixed rate debt. There may be some FRNs (floating rate notes) floating around (pardon the pun) but not many. Tbills are discount instruments but also wouldn’t be affected until they mature and new ones are issued.

Re: American Disruption

#192
post #189

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think it's both, more debt is added all the time and the existing debt gets refinanced as it rolls over. Just found an article about this whole strategy (and how it's not working) here[1]. [1] https://www.reuters.com/markets/rates-bonds/us-10-year-yield...

if all these shenanigans kill the whole driving point of bonds anyway (the full faith and credit of US Govt) - will it ever be as easy for the treasury to issue bonds again?

If foreign investors like China dump our debt, prices will go down and yields will go up. As long as we increase our debt ceiling and don’t do anything intentionally crazy like try to renegotiate existing debt (which would be a technical default), we could always issue more treasuries at the higher rates with the caveat that more money will need to be spent servicing the debt, which requires even more debt be issued. A vicious cycle for sure.

Re: American Disruption

#193

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not though. The US has been getting compensated for its military investment all around the world. The explicit architecture of the petrodollar system is that the US will protect international shipping, and in return all petroleum contracts will be priced and executed in dollars. This makes the USD the international reserve currency, and every country participating in international trade needs to hold USD. How ca…

> that the US will protect international shipping, and in return all petroleum contracts will be priced and executed in dollars People say this, but the dollar is free-floating against other currencies and oil is priced on (OPEC-manipulated) supply and demand, so it seems like an accounting fiction. Like, we could price oil in pork belly futures.

Yes but they are settled in dollars, and all the countries of the world are in fact holding dollar reserves.

Re: American Disruption

#194
post #158

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If we assume what is said is valid (a huge assumption, I know) and ignore the contradictions: They claim that China is able to pass into the US through Canada, Mexico, etc. and that the tariffs there are to put pressure on those governments to also put the squeeze on China in kind.

Then why did he just lift them on everyone except China?

He said because of the bond market reaction.

Re: American Disruption

#195
post #147

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That’s not a problem here (they have an app, too) but it’s definitely valid for Uber to compete on better service. I am skeptical that they will be able to get the kind of returns which their investors want that way, however.

they already IPOed so the original investors made out with a ton of money. if you think there's still a version where Uber evaporates overnight, I have some puts to sell you.

Most individual share prices is buoyed by continuous pumping from 401ks and the like buying into funds, not on the fundamentals of the companies in question.

Re: American Disruption

#196

Can anyone give a manufacturing example for the phenomena for which he uses Uber? It seems off to use a gig economy company in this article with its tariffs/manufacturing focus.

I think this is the typical modern American bias of idolizing 'tech' companies - it makes a lot of money so it must be because it's very technologically sophisticated. In reality I'd guess building an Uber scale tech company is not particularly difficult - after a quick ChatGPT query, it seems a city like New York, has about 90kish drivers at any moment - if we assume they make a query to the API every 5 seconds (and…

I worked at Uber a long time ago - there was some amount of overcomplicated engineering but you genuinely can't completely shard by city because a big part of Uber's value proposition is that you fly into a city for the first time and Uber just works.

Re: American Disruption

#197
post #168

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Even Navarro (or is it that other guy who's name refuses to stick in my brain) that admits that the jobs they want to take out of China (screwing in many tiny screws) will not be jobs in the US but automated factories. So it's not a jobs program they are pushing. It's having manufacturing on local soil and less money going offshore. This is not something they mentioned during the campaign, but are saying it now. Duri…

What really stood out to me is that they say the factories will produce their own power on-site, with approvals for power plants happening "faster than we've ever had before", because the grid is "at risk of bombings". Which suggests to me that it not just about having manufacturing local for the sake of it being local or to stop money going offshore, but because it is preparing for war.

> What really stood out to me is that they say the factories will produce their own power on-site, with approvals for power plants happening "faster than we've ever had before", because the grid is "at risk of bombings".

Where can I read about this?

Re: American Disruption

#198
post #168

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What really stood out to me is that they say the factories will produce their own power on-site, with approvals for power plants happening "faster than we've ever had before", because the grid is "at risk of bombings". Which suggests to me that it not just about having manufacturing local for the sake of it being local or to stop money going offshore, but because it is preparing for war.

> What really stood out to me is that they say the factories will produce their own power on-site, with approvals for power plants happening "faster than we've ever had before", because the grid is "at risk of bombings". Where can I read about this?

Right here.

Re: American Disruption

#199
post #169

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Again, America had low unemployment. And low level blue color job can be aw much dystopia as warehouse - your not bright person with criminal record an no skills will be taken advantage as much.

What the unemployment numbers, even digging into U4 vs U6, don't account for, is how hard people have to scramble to find those jobs. it's not that they aren't out there, people do still need to pay bills after all, it's that gone are the days when you'd just show up to the union hall and know you'd just be assigned some work. That feeling of solidarity, that you can just rely on the fact that you're needed and neces…

I do not think there is space for solidarity where these changes are going. The people voting for president and supporting him see solidarity as a weakness and something for suckers - or worst as taking something away from them. Again and again, republicans are against any measure or action where someone might get something.

Even if factories are rebuild, there will be no solidarity. Nor work that gives you much meaning - factory work is repetitive no fun no spiritual anything work. With a lot of steps that seem pointless to the person doing them.

Re: American Disruption

#200
post #165

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> And surely "everybody else" is working on alternatives. Well, it really depends on the competence of "everybody else"...

Can you be more specific in what you mean by that?

If I were a lazy incompetent politician I'd do the short sighted thing (kiss the Trump ass to placate my voters) and leave the long term thinking to whoever unfortunate enough to succeed my position.
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