191–200 of 1001 posts
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What type of help are you expecting?
I don’t know, just seems sad that allies are so fairweather.
Only a fool would expect America to come to their aid now, and we'd better hide our oil/minerals lest we get a double dose of dictator-flavoured freedom...
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The US will NOT engage in a hot war against China for Taiwan, that's for certain, regardless of who is president at that time. Why would they risk nuclear war for a bunch of people who are really far away from the US continent?
It’s not so much the people or the land, but rather what they can build. It’s the whole essence of the article. Not sure how far behind the West would fall if TSMC was controlled by the CCP. 5 years? 10?
But it’s in Taiwans interest for us to continue to provide them arms, training, and build regional alliances to pressure China.
I’m also not as convinced the US wouldn’t respond, but it would depend on South Korea, Japan, the Philippines, and ASEAN nations to call for such action — if they felt threatened enough by China’s actions in taking Taiwan and Philippine islands to declare war themselves.
Edit:
Including article discussing blowing up fabs and Taiwanese response that cutting off ASML and similar would be just as effective.
https://www.businessinsider.com/us-would-destroy-taiwan-semi...
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I wonder if they don’t really believe we’d come to defend them regardless of the incentives, at this point. In that case, might as well try to avoid the tariffs. I think the Ukraine situation already signaled that to Taiwan. Ultimately, China won't invade as long as Taiwan plays its cards right. China wants to retake Taiwan without firing a single shot and then quickly re-integrate Taiwan. As long as Taiwan doesn't d…
> China wants to retake Taiwan Take. They can’t “retake” something they never had.
Historically, Taiwan was governed by Chinese administrations for a significant period. In 1683, after defeating the Ming loyalists in Taiwan, the Qing dynasty extended its rule over the island, eventually incorporating it as part of its empire. By 1887, Taiwan was officially designated a province of China under Qing rule. However, following the First Sino-Japanese War, Taiwan was ceded to Japan in 1895. After World War II, Taiwan was placed under the administrative control of the Republic of China. Today, its status remains politically and historically complex, with ongoing debates over sovereignty.I would be cautious. With a top notch chip factory there is no need to defend Taiwan against China.
Does anyone think the US would defend Taiwan at this point? I think that ship has sailed under the current administration.
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They only need to make this appear real for 4, maybe 2 years, and can then reevaluate. I'd guess they looked at their options and decided this was the best hedge.
Bingo, see Foxconn in Wisconsin.
I cannot even begin to imagine what madness has infected the Taiwanese government to allow this. I feel so sorry for a great, entrepreneurial people. US tariffs will not matter when you are blockaded and Chester Nimitz is very much dead. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43123628
Right now is a very interesting moment in that the future is crystal clear and yet so many people of all persuasions don't want to accept it for so many different reasons * The USA is going to claw back whatever economic largesse it has granted to the rest of the world, and ultimately renege on many of its security guarantees, with the underlying reason being that it can no longer afford to be world police and pay fo…
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I wonder if they don’t really believe we’d come to defend them regardless of the incentives, at this point. In that case, might as well try to avoid the tariffs. If they send enough engineers over, we won’t actually learn how to make the chips. Then when the next election happens they can re-evaluate. If China invades in the next four years, I guess… I dunno, at least they’ll have gotten some people out. It is a pret…
I wonder if they don’t really believe we’d come to defend them regardless of the incentives, at this point. In that case, might as well try to avoid the tariffs. I think the Ukraine situation already signaled that to Taiwan. Ultimately, China won't invade as long as Taiwan plays its cards right. China wants to retake Taiwan without firing a single shot and then quickly re-integrate Taiwan. As long as Taiwan doesn't d…
I cannot even begin to imagine what madness has infected the Taiwanese government to allow this. I feel so sorry for a great, entrepreneurial people. US tariffs will not matter when you are blockaded and Chester Nimitz is very much dead. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=43123628
“Our continued protection of you is contingent on your investment in us”. Taiwan is hugely reliant on US defense guarantees. The US has a protectionist president who likes big numbers in announcements and a base riled up about American production capacity. Long-term this is bad for Taiwan since it reduces its leverage with the US in administrations with short-term geopolitics (or no real geopolitical talent.) In the…
I guess it comes down to how dependent on Taiwan's chips the US actually is (I don't know the answer to that).
The US isn't dependent on Ukraine and it's pressuring them to hand over land. If it turns out the US isn't dependent on Taiwan it could show similar indifference if China were to attempt to take it.
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> they can more credibly threaten to destroy the Taiwanese fabs if China invades China's interest in Taiwan is ideological. It is not at all determined by whether the Taiwanese destroy their own fabs in the event of an invasion.
Exactly. China has held this position for a long time. Chip plant manufacturing is a recent development. China will eventually catch up with their own manufacturing in a decade or so. They don't care about the immediate short-term - they think in decades.
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Does anyone think the US would defend Taiwan at this point? I think that ship has sailed under the current administration.
Are you willing to get drafted and fight to defend Taiwan and whatever comes as a result of that? Are you willing to die for Taiwan, or have your kids die for Taiwan? Honest question.