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Basketball has evolved into a game of calculated decision-making

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Re: Basketball has evolved into a game of calculated decision-making

#191

Post by pepa65 »

ks2048 wrote: post #151
vunderba wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'd be interested in seeing a link to this. Decades ago, playing defensive "computer chess" used to be a relatively optimal strategy against Chess AIs. However, I believe Kasparov famously tried to employ this tactic against Deep Blue but by that time it wasn't particularly viable.

I'm not sure if this is the study I was remembering, but here is one link I found: https://far.ai/post/2023-07-superhuman-go-ais/

I can see it in the case of champion-trained AI, but in the case of Alpha Zero trained AI, it should have encountered virtually every kind of senseless play.

Re: Basketball has evolved into a game of calculated decision-making

#192

Post by HDThoreaun »

hardwaregeek wrote: post #89

Thinking Basketball is one of my favorite resources for basketball analysis. He recently made a video debunking myths about the modern game [1]. While yes, there’s far more analytics and knowledge in the game, it hasn’t lead to monotony or poor quality. It’s instead resulted in a Cambrian explosion of tactics, counter tactics, and really diverse team strategies. But the commentary and analysis in mainstream basketbal…

I love thinking basketball but think he completely missed the point here. An apt quote is when he's talking about how much strategy the game has and says "its like high speed chess." The problem is that people dont want to watch high speed chess. The NBAs job is to be as entertaining as possible, not just as strategic as possible. Like it or not iso plays are entertaining even if theyre "bad basketball" in terms of winning. He says the only thing thats changed is that people take less mid range shots and more 3s as if thats a good thing but the league has replaced entertaining sets where you have to actually beat your defender with shooting contests(even if you have to run around a lot or step back to get the shot off) and the product has suffered because of it.

I think defense is a lot more interesting now and the media has done a horrible job capitalizing on that but end of the day people care more about offense.

Re: Basketball has evolved into a game of calculated decision-making

#193

Post by lapcat »

jm4 wrote: post #186
lapcat wrote: post #169

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> As for missing, the video I linked debunks that. 3 pointers are replacing long 2 pointers which also had a low percentage. I'd much rather watch NBA players miss 3's than watch a 23 minute YouTube video of someone talking about missing 3's. ;-) But the NBA FG% in 2025 is 46.5%, while it was 49.1% in 1985, so I'm skeptical that 3 pointers are simply replacing long 2 pointers with equal percentages. Obviously the % w…

The 3’s are not replacing 2’s at the same shot percentage. The 3’s are slightly lower percentage, but they are high enough that the overall value is higher than the long 2’s they replaced. They came to the conclusion that the long 2 was a high risk play so they replaced it with a comparable play with a higher reward. It’s common sense. Frankly, it’s the long 2 that’s a stupid play. The video is worth watching and I’m…

> The skill level of the guys who aren’t superstars is clearly much higher than the old days.

This is inevitable though and would have happened even if the 3-point line were abolished.

Re: Basketball has evolved into a game of calculated decision-making

#194

Post by HDThoreaun »

atmosx wrote: post #78
meisel wrote: post #23

This article presents a readable overview of today’s NBA trends, but IMO is too absolute in its judgment. Basketball is not a solved sport. There is still innovation, for example with OKC’s historically good defense that relies on playing 5 smaller but faster players. There are still good all-around players. There are still people that hit a lot of mid range shots. We have trends going the other way, sure, but they h…

In my opinion, the real problem with the NBA is that we no longer get the marquee matchups in the Finals that we used to during the 90s and 00s, mainly because the season is too long. An 82-game grind isn’t sustainable - it practically guarantees that stars like Giannis, Luka, or Jokic (or their key teammates) will get injured to the playoffs or not at all. The fact that we’ve never seen Embiid vs. Giannis in the ECF…

The real problem is the amount of ads and game breaks. Everyone knows basketball is about the fourth quarter so the league has backloaded ads. Now it routinely takes 20-30 minutes to get through the last 6 minutes of a game. Completely breaks the flow of the best part of the show. Second problem is that with the play in 2/3 of the teams make the post season so there is little incentive to try for a top seed anymore.

Re: Basketball has evolved into a game of calculated decision-making

#195

Post by HDThoreaun »

anon84873628 wrote: post #48
meisel wrote: post #23

This article presents a readable overview of today’s NBA trends, but IMO is too absolute in its judgment. Basketball is not a solved sport. There is still innovation, for example with OKC’s historically good defense that relies on playing 5 smaller but faster players. There are still good all-around players. There are still people that hit a lot of mid range shots. We have trends going the other way, sure, but they h…

It seems like a very brief and abrupt article. I can understand the part about strategy of three pointers. But how does all the technology and analytics actually change the game, besides "improving form"? Has it allowed better calculation shots with the best odds for a given player? Has it discovered other team's weaknesses to exploit? Etc

Analytics leads to teams converging on the same strategy, at least on offense. The data makes it clear that you should almost never being taking mid rangers or running iso sets. So now those plays are gone from the game.

Re: Basketball has evolved into a game of calculated decision-making

#196

Post by TeaBrain »

deeg wrote: post #87

I play and watch a lot of basketball and this article seems to be written by someone who doesn't do either. The idea that players are more specialized is wrong. In the 90s there were plenty of defense-only players like Denis Rodman and Ben Wallace; they might not start in today's NBA, let alone make all-star teams, because they are too one-dimensional. A good counter to these arguments is made on the Thinking Basketb…

This blog post was likely inspired by an article published by Bloomberg yesterday, about how basketball had fallen into an efficiency trap, centered around avoiding mid-range shots in favor of threes and high percentage close range shots.

Re: Basketball has evolved into a game of calculated decision-making

#197

Post by pfisherman »

darkerside wrote: post #95
pfisherman wrote: post #91

This article was written by someone who has very little knowledge or appreciation of the history of the game. The NBA has always been a league of specialists revolving around a few superstars with a couple of “glue guys” thrown into the mix.

Honestly, this post comes off that way. Or you have a different timeline of what you consider always. Jordan basically invented the modern superstar. Sure, you had the Wilts and Dr J's back in the day, but they dominated based on their talent, not because the game was meticulously planned around maximizing their specific capabilities.

Basketball is not football. It is a five man game where one player can have an outsized impact.

Superstars not only impact the makeup of their teams roster, they impact the composition of rosters across the league. When Shaq was in his prime teams used to carry extra big men to have more fouls to give.

The most recent iteration of the league was teams going for small ball with three point shooting wings to compete with the Warriors. Right now you see serious contenders in the western conference going for size to make it past Jokic. The next iteration will be the Wemby stoppers.

Before Wilt and Dr J you had Oscar Robertson, Pistol Pete Maravich, Jerry West, Rick Barry, George Milan, etc. The league has always revolved around stars.

Re: Basketball has evolved into a game of calculated decision-making

#198

Post by thakoppno »

myvoiceismypass wrote: post #101
atmosx wrote: post #78

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In my opinion, the real problem with the NBA is that we no longer get the marquee matchups in the Finals that we used to during the 90s and 00s, mainly because the season is too long. An 82-game grind isn’t sustainable - it practically guarantees that stars like Giannis, Luka, or Jokic (or their key teammates) will get injured to the playoffs or not at all. The fact that we’ve never seen Embiid vs. Giannis in the ECF…

> At this point, injuries, not players or teams, are deciding who moves forward. Football is kinda like this at this point too. Some fraction of the top QBs are going to go down each year, and it feels like a limp to the finish. That being said, somehow Wilt Chamberlain once played a season in which he only missed 8 and a half minutes total in the entire season, including OT. Amazing. Times have changed but that will…

> Wilt Chamberlain averaged more than 48 minutes a game during the 1961-62 NBA season, where he played an average of 48.5 minutes per game; this is considered one of the most remarkable feats in NBA history.

Re: Basketball has evolved into a game of calculated decision-making

#199

Post by remixff2400 »

bballfan133 wrote: post #166
hardwaregeek wrote: post #89

Thinking Basketball is one of my favorite resources for basketball analysis. He recently made a video debunking myths about the modern game [1]. While yes, there’s far more analytics and knowledge in the game, it hasn’t lead to monotony or poor quality. It’s instead resulted in a Cambrian explosion of tactics, counter tactics, and really diverse team strategies. But the commentary and analysis in mainstream basketbal…

I really dislike this talking point. 1) That people who don't enjoy what they see are just unsophisticated. 2) That today's basketball is better because players have more skill and plays are more complex. I don't think that's the point at all. I've personally found it hard to sit through games this season - it feels like there isn't much at stake. What happens in the first quarter is a mere blip. And even in the four…

1. Where basketball misses there is that the "get the ball in the hoop" portion of that is _really_ boring now. I'd wager that people don't want to be concerned with some 3rd man setting a screen on the other side of the court allowing some 2nd man to set up behind a pick from a 4th man to get passed the ball from the 1st man to shoot a three... and then clank it off the rim. Then, rinse and repeat on both ends. The end result is that the "get the ball in the hoop" part just feels like a back-and-forth 3-point shootaround, even though the actual sequence is far more complex.

Re: Basketball has evolved into a game of calculated decision-making

#200

Post by HDThoreaun »

relaxing wrote: post #62
Xenoamorphous wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> When you elect to take more three pointers you necessarily have to resort to shooting more difficult ones, which lowers the expected return on each one But then 2 pointers become easier. You can’t defend tightly both the perimeter and the paint at the same time. Sounds like a win-win. Again, nobody seemingly noticed.

Do you watch NBA games?

He is right. The highest volume shooting teams play 5 out which leads to easy layups as well.
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