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Two undersea cables in Baltic Sea disrupted

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Re: Two undersea cables in Baltic Sea disrupted

#191

Post by JumpCrisscross »

CapricornNoble wrote: post #186
petre wrote: post #91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Best course of action at this time would be to properly arm Ukraine.

What exactly would "properly" arming Ukraine look like? The entire Western world doesn't produce enough Patriot missiles to meet Ukraine's air defense needs, just as one critical example. We are aiming for a global production target of 750 missiles/year ( https://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/15354795 ).... Russia has fired about 6,000 missiles and large drones per year ( https://kyivindependent.com/defense-ministry-ove…

> What exactly would "properly" arming Ukraine look like?

More long-range offensive weapons and clearance to hit sites in Russia. Let Israel know that we wouldn't mind them taking out the Iranian drone factories supplying Russia.

Re: Two undersea cables in Baltic Sea disrupted

#192

Post by Hamuko »

thinkingtoilet wrote: post #74
tetrisgm wrote: post #60

The constant Russian interference, combined with the regular escalation from the jets patrolling, and the radar jamming, really needs to be dealt with. We're stuck between having to do timid actions and full NATO escalation. This feels like constant creep.

I agree. Do you want to sign up and go fight in a war? Or should other people besides you die? It's easy to say it "needs to be dealt with" but it's not an easy thing to do.

Living in a country next to Russia, it basically feels more and more likely that I will actually have to participate in a war effort. Not really sure how since I have not undergone military training, but it's definitely something to keep in mind these days.

Re: Two undersea cables in Baltic Sea disrupted

#193

Post by pavlov »

dzhiurgis wrote: post #145
grapesodaaaaa wrote: post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Maybe a strategic nuke on Kaliningrad if any provocation happens. Surely you must be joking about a first-strike nuclear provocation or larger. I would think almost anything other than a border incursion could be dealt with in other ways. Should Putin be held more accountable for his actions? Absolutely, but a nuclear response is not going to go well unless absolutely justified.

Fear is the greatest weapon. You can keep sanctioning them, but you’ll never get anywhere. Give nukes to Ukraine, even pretend ones and war will end in minutes.

Putin is old enough to remember the Cuban missile crisis of 1962, when their side actually tried this and had to back down.

Re: Two undersea cables in Baltic Sea disrupted

#194

Post by JumpCrisscross »

dzhiurgis wrote: post #145
grapesodaaaaa wrote: post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Maybe a strategic nuke on Kaliningrad if any provocation happens. Surely you must be joking about a first-strike nuclear provocation or larger. I would think almost anything other than a border incursion could be dealt with in other ways. Should Putin be held more accountable for his actions? Absolutely, but a nuclear response is not going to go well unless absolutely justified.

Fear is the greatest weapon. You can keep sanctioning them, but you’ll never get anywhere. Give nukes to Ukraine, even pretend ones and war will end in minutes.

> Give nukes to Ukraine, even pretend ones and war will end in minutes

This is the wrong answer. But it's clear non-proliferation has failed. If Ukraine had kept its nukes from the 90s, this wouldn't have happened. It would have had the ability to credibly threaten that it had reverse engineered the arming mechanisms.

Re: Two undersea cables in Baltic Sea disrupted

#195

Post by johnisgood »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #188
johnisgood wrote: post #172

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Which happened and kept happening for a long time now, including the US sending billions of dollars and weapons (among other things). That did not help, did it?

> Which happened and kept happening for a long time now We've been drip feeding and hand tying Ukraine. Practically every military expert has said this is not the way to win a war.

I heard US sent so many weapons that even US' supply of weapons were running low if and when it came to defending themselves. Is it true? I have no clue.

Re: Two undersea cables in Baltic Sea disrupted

#197

Post by echoangle »

MichaelZuo wrote: post #71
stackskipton wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Those discussions are had all the time. One of downside of this bear is bear strapped with explosives that could kill us all if bear gets angry enough. Also, once you are 12 miles offshore, technically you are in international waters and thus cannot be stopped by any Navy except your own unless there is UN Sanctions. If NATO Countries decided to violate that, it obviously opens up massive can of worms that could impa…

That’s a good point, there’s no formal mechanism to punish any country that has ‘anchor accidents’ 12.1 nm offshore. It’s probably not even a de jure crime, so what is there to punish on the record?

In what country is intentional property destruction not a crime? You’re not arguing that it’s really accidental, right?

Re: Two undersea cables in Baltic Sea disrupted

#198

Post by Hamuko »

euroderf wrote: post #73

So what's the solution ? Assign a surveillance UAV to every Russian ship parked "without a good reason" over a cable ? It would be expensive, but doable, and create a reserve of vehicles for wartime use.

According to CNN reporting, the US is already keeping track of Russian ships near critical submarine infrastructure. Chances are that they already have a prime suspect as to what ship or ships have been engaged in this.

https://edition.cnn.com/2024/09/06/politics/us-sees-increasi...

Re: Two undersea cables in Baltic Sea disrupted

#199

Post by jasonfarnon »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #157
ivandenysov wrote: post #151

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They also threatened UA with a full scale invasion by doing troop trainings on the border for several years before the real thing.

The point isn't that they don't do things, it's that there are people issuing a constant stream of threats and people doing things, and it's not entirely clear there is even a correlation between the two.

in other words, we need their false negative rate

Re: Two undersea cables in Baltic Sea disrupted

#200

Post by fuoqi »

armchairhacker wrote: post #185
tetrisgm wrote: post #60

The constant Russian interference, combined with the regular escalation from the jets patrolling, and the radar jamming, really needs to be dealt with. We're stuck between having to do timid actions and full NATO escalation. This feels like constant creep.

IMO the right action is to counterattack with equal force, ideally in the same way. So cut one of their undersea cabals, fly jets near or over their airspace, etc. That way, there's a clear line for what NATO will and won't do that Russia can understand. If attacks escalate it will be Russia that escalated every time. If Russia feels it's threatened, all they have to do is stop the attacks and NATO will stop. If Russ…

>fly jets near

It's regularly done by both sides. And not only with jets, but also with nuclear-capable strategic bombers.

>over their airspace

Shooting it down will be a no-brainer for Russia.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1960_U-2_incident

>If attacks escalate it will be Russia that escalated every time.

So sending jets into their airspace is not an escalation, but shooting down the plain is? Yeap, you are not a diplomat.

Should I remind you how US reacted to the Soviet military presence in Cuba? On the US scale Ukraine is somewhere between Mexico and Texas in importance for Russia from the military point of view.

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