Artificial intelligence is losing hype • Hacker News Board

Re: Artificial intelligence is losing hype

#191

Post by Jensson » Tue, Aug 20, 2024, 5:56 PM UTC

CuriouslyC wrote: post #161

grogenaut wrote: post #108

Earlier quoted context omitted.

could you provide some examples, code or repos and questions where it does a good job for you (question can also just be completion). Obviously you're having really good experiences with the tools that other aren't having. I'd definitely appreciate that over a lot of assurances taht I'm doing it wrong with my spaghetti code.

Try these: Take a SQL schema, and ask AI to generate crud endpoints for the schema, then sit down and code it by yourself. Then try generating client side actions and state management for those endpoints. Time yourself, and compare how long it takes you. Even if you're fast and you cut and paste from template work and quickly hand edit, the AI will be done and on a smoke break before you're even a quarter of the way…

Those things are a tiny part of the work though and are all about generating boilerplate code. Tons of boilerplate code isn't the hallmark of a great codebase, I don't think many programmers spends more than 10% of their time writing boilerplate code, unless they work at a very dysfunctional org.

It is true it is faster than humans at some tasks, but the remaining tasks were most of the time, you can't gain more than 11% speedup by speeding up 10% of the work.

Re: Artificial intelligence is losing hype

#192

Post by seanmcdirmid » Tue, Aug 20, 2024, 6:04 PM UTC

Prickle wrote: post #90

seanmcdirmid wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’ve been hearing about the AI bubble being about to pop for more than decade now. And then just a couple of years ago AI took a huge leap…so now another AI winter is even more likely?

I think we will see something similar to the last boom with Neural Net chatbots back in 2014(?). Public discource will simmer down, as current language models either fizzle out or improve. Some will become background noise as the models gets integrated into search engines or leads to large scale lawsuits. Unlike the previous neural nets though, those models have an actual tangible use. So you will see them around a l…

There wasn’t really a pullback in 2014, AI tech just kept getting better afterwards and the companies were still dumping a lot of resources into AI.

Re: Artificial intelligence is losing hype

#193

Post by atleastoptimal » Tue, Aug 20, 2024, 7:22 PM UTC

29athrowaway wrote: post #14

atleastoptimal wrote: post #11

[flagged]

At some moment people wanted to use radioactivity for everything, even marking cattle.

It's different though. Did we have the ubiquitous implementation of nuclear power in only its nascent early days so widespread? To assume it will peter out the same way assumes the metaphor is 1:1, when I brought it up to imply simply that since a lot of developments are happening in secret now and companies are delaying releases for safety reasons, to the public is appears as if things are slowing. Even so, AI models are still far better and cheaper now than they were simply a year ago. We have simply gotten used to breakthroughs.

Re: Artificial intelligence is losing hype

#194

Post by asadotzler » Tue, Aug 20, 2024, 8:42 PM UTC

keiferski wrote: post #146

pdimitar wrote: post #143

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Responding emotionally by using words like "ignorance" and "laziness" undermines any argument that you might think you are making. Have you considered that you getting almost angry at somebody "not seeing the light" means you might hold preconceived notions that might not hold to reality? You would not be practicing critical thinking if you are not willing to question your assumptions. It seems your assumption is ver…

You asked for examples, and I gave you examples. I didn't claim AI revolution was around the corner, I just said I used them in these small ways that clearly will have big impacts in their respective areas. My experience is in no way unique, and yes, I think it's just laziness or ignorance to think otherwise. Or in your case, a kind of zealous hostility as a reaction against hype. I remind you that my initial comment…

a stick for carving in the dirt enables you to create something that didn't exist before. there's nothing special about that stick.

Re: Artificial intelligence is losing hype

#195

Post by asadotzler » Tue, Aug 20, 2024, 8:43 PM UTC

bufferoverflow wrote: post #96

AI is not one thing at the moment. We have multiple systems that are being developed in parallel: • text generators • code generators • image generators • video generators • speech generators • sound/music generators • various robotics vision and control systems (often trained in virtual environments) • automated factories / warehouses / fulfillment centers • self-driving cars (trucks/planes/trains/boats/bikes/whatev…

[flagged]

Re: Artificial intelligence is losing hype

#196

Post by asadotzler » Tue, Aug 20, 2024, 8:44 PM UTC

ummonk wrote: post #13

Whether and to what extent AI can be monetized is an open question. But there's no question that LLMs are already seeing extensive use in everyday office work and already making large improvements to productivity.

Links to studies/surveys/interviews/anything with even the suggestion of proof for your claim other than simple assertion?

Re: Artificial intelligence is losing hype

#197

Post by danielmarkbruce » Tue, Aug 20, 2024, 8:55 PM UTC

LtWorf wrote: post #189

danielmarkbruce wrote: post #180

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Common sense, having been around cloud operations for a bit. The big cloud providers run gross margins around 30%. So if openai are using MSFT and getting a "good deal" maybe MSFT only get 20% GM. So, $1 of openai compute costs MSFT say $0.80. Of that cost of providing the service, something like 30-40% goes to electricity. So, lets say the electricity cost is $0.30 for $1 of OpenAI compute. (And that's probably a st…

Doesn't seem anything definitive to me.

Not definitive. But if you need a water tight argument to change your mind on something, you'll never change it.

Re: Artificial intelligence is losing hype

#198

Post by danielmarkbruce » Tue, Aug 20, 2024, 8:56 PM UTC

0points wrote: post #107

CuriouslyC wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

AI is a tool, if you don't know how to use a tool you can't expect to get good results with it. That means both how to interact with the AI and how to structure your code to make the AI's generations more accurate.

If all you got is a LLM hammer, then every problem is a nail.

GPT-4o is the greatest hammer ever invented.

Re: Artificial intelligence is losing hype

#199

Post by gennarro » Tue, Aug 20, 2024, 9:14 PM UTC

I tried to do some AI database clean up this weekend - simple stuff like zip lookup and standardizing spacing, and caps - and ChatGPT managed to screw it ip over and over. It’s the sort of thing there a little error means the answer is totally wrong so I spent an hour refining the query and then addressing edge cases etc. I could have just done it all in excel in less with less chance of random (hard to catch) errors.

Re: Artificial intelligence is losing hype

#200

Post by benreesman » Tue, Aug 20, 2024, 9:21 PM UTC

spacemanspiff01 wrote: post #93

randcraw wrote: post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've worked in AI for the past 30 years and have seen enthusiasm as robust as yours go bust before. Just because some kinds of narrow AI have done extraordinarily well -- namely those tasks that recognize patterns using connections between FSMs -- does not mean that same mechanisms will continue to scale up to human-level cognition, much less exceed it any time soon. The breakthroughs where deep AI have excelled -- o…

So I am a neophite in this area, but my thesis for why "this time is different" compared to previous AI bubbles is that this time there exist a bunch of clear products (or paths to products) that work and only require what is currently available in terms of technology. Coding assistants today are useful, image generation is useful, speach recognition/generation is useful. All of these can support businesses, even in…

“This time is different” in one fundamental, methodological, epistemological way: we test on the training set now.

This has follow-on consequences for a shattering phase transition between “persuasive demo” and “useful product”.

We can now make arbitrarily convincing demos that will crash airplanes (“with no survivors!”) on the first try in production.

This is institutionalized by the market capitalizations of 7 companies being so inflated that if they were priced accurately the US economy would collapse.