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China's manufacturers are going broke

economist.com

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Re: China's manufacturers are going broke

#191

Post by luuurker »

Nevermark wrote: post #123
luuurker wrote: post #108

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You've pointed out what the US is doing. That's good, but you're clearly biased, so let me tell you two things that China is doing that is contributing for that instability you've mentioned: claims in the south china sea that no country would accept if it was done to them and a major naval build up. You need two to tango and both the US and China are dancing right now. Anyone only blaming one side need to stop for a…

> You need two to tango [...] > Anyone only blaming one side need to stop for a second [...] When it comes to military coercion (wars, threats), and imperialism, it only takes one bad actor to cause problems. When there are two sides, or three, it just means more actors willing to push around everyone else. Albeit, they amplify each other. Their respective needs to dominate encourage each others' aggressive tendencie…

The point I was trying to make (probably made a bad job at it) is that there is more than one bad actor in the Pacific and the person I replied to only blames one side.

Sure, the US has their bases there (many since WW2), but we can't blame the US alone when we also have China making threats and claims that scare the heck out of other countries. The US doesn't need to move a finger to have Taiwan or Philippines on their side... these countries know what they're up against and will, for obvious reasons, want to have a "big guy" on their side.

In a few years China will not only have US bases around them, but also a handful of countries that won't side with them on anything. And that's how the next version of the "Pacific NATO" will be created... the US will of course take advantage of it, but it could not exist without a China that makes overreaching claims, threats, and their huge military.

Re: China's manufacturers are going broke

#192

Post by alephnerd »

reisse wrote: post #132
alephnerd wrote: post #96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> You see, there is a 1.5m-2m new car market right next to China, completely abandoned by western players Which one? If you mean Russia (which by the way is only 600-700k), then those Chinese players face secondary sanctions in most markets which settle trade in USD, along with a lot of politically connected domestic players. If you mean India, most Chinese players have been chased out or forced to transfer technolog…

> If you mean Russia Yes. > (which by the way is only 600-700k) 700k was the official figure for 2022, which, besides the obvious reasons to be an outlier, is also skewed by the fact 300k more cars were imported as "used" to workaround stopping of the official deliveries. It was more than 1m new cars sold in 2023, now it's 700k just for the Jan-Jun 2024. > then those Chinese players face secondary sanctions in most m…

> There is no economic reason why GM dominates that market

UzAvtosanoat (the Uzbek govt manufacturer) is the largest automotive manufacturer in Central Asia, and because every single Central Asian country has a FTA with Uzbekistan this puts them at a massive advantage.

It is UzAvtosanoat that manufactures GM, Hyundai, and other cars for the Central Asian market. Even BYD Central Asia has to partner and ToT IP to UzAvtosanoat for manufacturing and entry into the Central Asian market [0].

My point is that "Made in China" products are limited by export restrictions as every country has in place. What happens to the glut of cars "made in China" that cannot be sold abroad? This is the crux of the overproduction problem.

[0] - https://www.byd.com/eu/news-list/BYD_Signs_Investment_Agreem...

Re: China's manufacturers are going broke

#193

Post by alephnerd »

naveen99 wrote: post #156
alephnerd wrote: post #141

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> GDP stats are so systematically faked At a macro-level, Chinese federal statistics are decently trustworthy in the 2020s, and there is enough transnational trade and dealflow that egregious tampering can and would be caught, and is very damaging. > China could collapse at any time There is a difference between stagnant/slowing growth (which is what is happening) and "collapse" (nowhere near that level). Nor would y…

But who has the guts to call out the emperor has no clothes. No one corrected the covid mortality numbers or even gave any kind of estimate other than the officials numbers out of ccp.

> But who has the guts to call out the emperor has no clothes

You read the article above right?

Re: China's manufacturers are going broke

#194

Post by alephnerd »

humanlity wrote: post #180

It’s amusing to see discussions about exotic markets like this. While I don’t agree with the CCP’s policies, I believe the issue is more related to free-market dynamics. Given today’s inflation, potential buyers are saving every penny. In China, unlike in the West, people spend based on their expectations and income, and they never resort to deficit spending. Considering the market situation and geopolitical factors,…

> What confuses me is that Western media often portray China as a threat, while Chinese mainstream media exaggerate these reports, deepening mutual hatred

There is a mutual lack of trust and dialogue amongst Chinese and American decisonmakwrs - most of whom started their careers in the late 1980s/early 1990s and thus lack modern in-depth experience in the West or China respectively.

Both the Trump and Xi admins both bled competent advisers at the expense of populist and hawkish advisers, which degraded the ability for nuance in both the US and China's policymaking.

Imo, the biggest issues have been the MFA/State Dept and the CMC/DoD in China/US. Both had massive attrition of experienced policymakers in the 2016-19 period, which caused a game of economic brinkmanship.

Re: China's manufacturers are going broke

#195

Post by alephnerd »

Yeul wrote: post #186
fspeech wrote: post #131

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've never sensed any real desire for China to offshore to the Philippines, given its military alliance with the US. Maybe they dangle the prospect from time to time to try to pry the Philippines away. They have much friendlier targets in Southeast Asia, with Thailand and Malaysia at the top of the list.

A lot of people don't know this but one of the strengths of China is their huge expat community all across Asia. When Dutch people arrived in what is now Indonesia in the 16th century they ran into Chinese merchants- the only locals who could keep up their mercantile endeavours.

> their huge expat community all across Asia.

The Nanyang community is not uniformly pro-PRC.

A massive portion of them have blood and political relations with HK and Taiwan, and the younger generations don't have the same level of attachment to China as older less educated Nanyang Chinese do.

You can see this in Singapore and Thailand, with Millenial/GenZ Nanyang Chinese who can't even speak Mandarin anymore and almost entirely consume Western media.

In Malaysia, PRC nationalism is stronger, but that's in reaction to horrid race relations between Chinese and Malays/Bumiputera due to policies like "Ketuanan Melayu", memories/experiences from the various race riots of the 1960s-70s, and also the insularness/otherness of the Chinese community compared to other communities in Malaysia.

Re: China's manufacturers are going broke

#196

Post by tmnvix »

aquamar2 wrote: post #153
tmnvix wrote: post #150

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I remember as a kid hearing people throw around the term "Jap crap". Not for a long time. China has been going the same way. They are now capable of making very high quality products. Taiwan went down the same route, South Korea too. In the long term, it's not China that has a problem, it's complacent western manufacturing companies. It's not just a failure to innovate. Some have used their market power to exploit co…

[flagged]

There are a lot of Chinese EVs on the roads here in NZ. I can assure you they aren't bursting into flames. For cheap and high quality, check out the BYD Seagull.

Hifi amps were the first high quality (and very reasonably priced) Chinese goods I took note of.

Re: China's manufacturers are going broke

#197

Post by crispy-lel »

aquamar2 wrote: post #153
tmnvix wrote: post #150

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I remember as a kid hearing people throw around the term "Jap crap". Not for a long time. China has been going the same way. They are now capable of making very high quality products. Taiwan went down the same route, South Korea too. In the long term, it's not China that has a problem, it's complacent western manufacturing companies. It's not just a failure to innovate. Some have used their market power to exploit co…

[flagged]

“Most are aware of (a bunch of racist myths propagated by Falun Gong and Radio Free Asia) is anyone aware of a single GOOD product?”

Re: China's manufacturers are going broke

#198

Post by crispy-lel »

aquamar2 wrote: post #153
tmnvix wrote: post #150

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I remember as a kid hearing people throw around the term "Jap crap". Not for a long time. China has been going the same way. They are now capable of making very high quality products. Taiwan went down the same route, South Korea too. In the long term, it's not China that has a problem, it's complacent western manufacturing companies. It's not just a failure to innovate. Some have used their market power to exploit co…

[flagged]

America has a seriously dated infrastructure system, practically no public transit, a car centric system that is falling apart at the seems as roads and bridges go into disrepair, and China is building infrastructure that Americans don’t even dream of.

But yeah keep believing China is full of “tofu dreg” buildings or whatever bullshit the Feds want you angry about lmao

Re: China's manufacturers are going broke

#199

Post by limit499karma »

wildrhythms wrote: post #136
limit499karma wrote: post #122

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It wasn't just US. The hidden politburo of capitalists decided and the nations followed orders.

Nothing hidden about it.

It is not officially a recognized politburo. The Eastern approach to these top down systems is to have a overt power structure whereas such a structure is denied in the West even though as you say it is all in the open.

Re: China's manufacturers are going broke

#200

Post by chongli »

kwhitefoot wrote: post #118
pstrateman wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The panels themselves have been an insignificant parr of the total cost for a while. Mounts, connectors, wires, and inverters end up costing much more than the panels.

If the profit margin is 10% then a 10% reduction in total material and labour cost more than doubles your profit margin if you keep your prices the same. So how small a part of the total is the module cost? Even if you can only save 5% you still make more than 50% extra profit.

The price per watt for rooftop PV system installations varies dramatically from country to country in the west. Where I live in Canada the average cost is about $2 USD per watt installed (for a 7-10kW system). In Australia, the same system costs about $0.66 USD per watt installed.

That means for a 10kW system I'm looking at $20k USD in Canada vs. $6600 USD in Australia. That's such a huge difference that 5-10% cost reduction in Canada would barely make a difference at all. I have serious doubts that any Canadian household could recoup the cost of a big solar install over the lifetime of the panels vs simply investing that money in ETFs.

Perhaps the situation is different in the US?

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